Latest @MRC and @UCT_news report on excess mortality in South Africa released, covering the period through 27Nov21. 273k estimated excess natural deaths since 3May2020, 647 in the last week. Report here: samrc.ac.za/reports/report…
At present, no sign of increased natural mortality in South Africa, Gauteng, or indeed Tshwane metro.
p-scores for natural deaths are at interwave lows (8.3% nationally, ranging from -4.5% in Gauteng to 39% in the Northern Cape.
By age, p-scores fell in all age-groups other than 5-19. Deaths are few in this age band, so the p-score inherently unstable. #NotToBeOverInterpreted
Unnatural deaths do what they been doing, literally for months now.
On the testing side, the @NICDsa released its weekly testing report , covering the same period through 27Nov21. Report here: nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-i…
These increases are spatially concentrated; even in Gauteng, there is a strong gradient from the northmost healthdistricts of Tshwane, to the southernmost municipalities of Midvaal, and a corridor running through parts of NorthWest and Limpopo
Of even more interest is the age profile of the proportions testing positive. Panel 1 shows the proportions testing positive nationally by age over 8 weeks since October. Most of the increase nationally driven by those under 40.
Infections among adolescents and young adults started increasing some weeks before it did among older adults. This MAY to some extent account for the reported milder disease profile to date, and the somewhat unusual hospitalisation age profile.
The effects (panel2) are even more extreme in Gauteng; while outside of Gauteng (panel 3), the increase still driven by young adults, but at much lower levels (note all figures at same scale).
Proportions testing positive increased markedly in 4 provinces in South Africa (most notably in Gauteng), with big increases in Limpopo, NorthWest, and Mpumalanga. (panel 4)
CLEARLY some big movements in the week to Saturday 27Nov21.
#Omicron is a matter of great concern - obviously. But still so much to ponder. So much still unknown. Stay safe. Be safe. VACCINATE.
@nicdsa Oh dear. Really messing up the handles tonight. That was meant to be @nicd_sa, not poor /nicdsa.
Apologies, for the second time
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