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Tom Moultrie Profile picture
@tomtom_m
Dec 1, 2021 • 13 tweets • 7 min read • Read on X
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Latest @MRC and @UCT_news report on excess mortality in South Africa released, covering the period through 27Nov21. 273k estimated excess natural deaths since 3May2020, 647 in the last week. Report here: samrc.ac.za/reports/report…
At present, no sign of increased natural mortality in South Africa, Gauteng, or indeed Tshwane metro.
p-scores for natural deaths are at interwave lows (8.3% nationally, ranging from -4.5% in Gauteng to 39% in the Northern Cape.
By age, p-scores fell in all age-groups other than 5-19. Deaths are few in this age band, so the p-score inherently unstable. #NotToBeOverInterpreted
Unnatural deaths do what they been doing, literally for months now.
On the testing side, the @NICDsa released its weekly testing report , covering the same period through 27Nov21. Report here: nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-i…
These increases are spatially concentrated; even in Gauteng, there is a strong gradient from the northmost healthdistricts of Tshwane, to the southernmost municipalities of Midvaal, and a corridor running through parts of NorthWest and Limpopo
Of even more interest is the age profile of the proportions testing positive. Panel 1 shows the proportions testing positive nationally by age over 8 weeks since October. Most of the increase nationally driven by those under 40.
Infections among adolescents and young adults started increasing some weeks before it did among older adults. This MAY to some extent account for the reported milder disease profile to date, and the somewhat unusual hospitalisation age profile.
The effects (panel2) are even more extreme in Gauteng; while outside of Gauteng (panel 3), the increase still driven by young adults, but at much lower levels (note all figures at same scale).
Proportions testing positive increased markedly in 4 provinces in South Africa (most notably in Gauteng), with big increases in Limpopo, NorthWest, and Mpumalanga. (panel 4)
CLEARLY some big movements in the week to Saturday 27Nov21.
#Omicron is a matter of great concern - obviously. But still so much to ponder. So much still unknown. Stay safe. Be safe. VACCINATE.
@mrc @UCT_news Urg. meant to tag @MRCza. Apologies to the 'other' @mrc.
@nicdsa Oh dear. Really messing up the handles tonight. That was meant to be @nicd_sa, not poor /nicdsa.
Apologies, for the second time

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More from @tomtom_m

Tom Moultrie Profile picture
Dec 14, 2022
Weekly excess deaths in South Africa. A final thread. The report released by the @MRCza and @UCT_news collaboration on excess deaths in South Africa in the week to 10Dec22 was released today. The report is here:samrc.ac.za/reports/report… /1
The report is the last of 138 reports issued weekly since 30Mar20. The first report covered the period to 15Mar20, the second (on 6Apr20) the period to 31Mar20. 39 weekly reports were issued in 2020; 50 in 2021; and 49 in 2022. /2
In addition to providing data in machine readable format since 23Jun20, the collaboration has produced many technical notes, methodological reports, and explainers. /3
Read 23 tweets
Tom Moultrie Profile picture
Dec 9, 2022
Apologies for the delay in the weekly deaths and testing summaries - reports from @MRCza and @nicd_sa now released! (Delay due to late release of testing data).
In the week to 3Dec22, 450 excess natural deaths were recorded, bringing the total since 3May20 to 338 300.
The report is available here: The excess deaths report is here: samrc.ac.za/reports/report…. In the week to 3Dec22, natural deaths were 5.6% above expected, ranging from -7.6% in NC to 15.1% in EC.
As can be seen, little signal (and quite a lot of noise) in the data for some time now. Unnatural deaths continue to follow the expected patterns and levels
Read 6 tweets
Tom Moultrie Profile picture
Jul 27, 2022
Latest weekly @MRCza and @UCT_news report on excess deaths in South Africa released. 801 excess natural deaths in the week to 23Jul22; 326 000 since 3May20. Report here: samrc.ac.za/reports/report…
Observed natural deaths for the week were 8.7% above that expected, very slightly higher than the upper prediction bound. Provincially, p-scores range from 1.8% in NW to 24.5% in NC. (only NC and EC - 20.3% -) exceed 10% above expected.
Excess deaths are low in (almost) every age group, are negligible in and are at much lower levels than in previous waves of infection. p-scores in every age group are less than 25%,and are negative between ages 20 and 59.
Read 6 tweets
Tom Moultrie Profile picture
Jul 20, 2022
Latest @MRCza and @UCT_News report on excess deaths in South Africa released. Issues in the data received from Home Affairs have led to a caution being issued with this week's data. Report here: samrc.ac.za/reports/report…
325k excess deaths between 3May20 and 16Jul22. While the increment in the week to 16Jul22 is low, the caution above should be borne in mind and results should not be over-interpreted; the correction will come through in due course.
Natural deaths in the week were 4.8% higher than expected (see caveat), ranging from -13.5% (NW) to +23.8% (NC).
Read 7 tweets
Tom Moultrie Profile picture
Jul 13, 2022
Latest @MRCza and @UCT_news report on excess deaths in South Africa is out; covering the week to 9Jul22. 325k excess natural deaths since 3May20; 1100 in the most recent week. Report here: samrc.ac.za/reports/report…
Excess natural deaths of those under age 60 back to the predicted levels; those over 60 still somewhat above. Nationally, natural deaths were 12.0% above expected with most provinces close to or within the prediction range.
The p-score by age band shows that excess mortality concentrated in those aged 60+. (The odd pattern of those under 5 may reflect an earlier RSV season than anticipated, with excess mortality in past months, now reverting to baseline).
Read 7 tweets
Tom Moultrie Profile picture
Jun 29, 2022
Latest @MRCza and @UCT_news report on excess deaths in South Africa, covering the week to 25Jun22, released. 322419 excess natural deaths since 3May20, 1112 in the week to 25June22, the lowest since 3-9April22. Report --> samrc.ac.za/reports/report…
Natural deaths in the week to 25Jun22 were 11.6% above expected, ranging from 20.1% in KZN to -3.4% in the Western Cape.
Unnatural deaths continue to stick closely to the expected numbers.
Read 7 tweets

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