Thread by @AusPolMate

🧵1/ NDIS, some facts to help with the "Blame NDIS" deflect and distract talking points.

I had wanted to do a comprehensive NDIS thread, instead I'll post this as MYEFO is out tomorrow and 'leaks' to News Corp have begun already.

2/
When Labor was developing NDIS it was fully costed. The initial productivity commission work was revalidated by the government actuary (to appease the Liberals). The table below is from the actuaries report showing $22B cost in 18/19.
So costs were known

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More than known, the Liberals made a point of saying the big bad number in their parliamentary speeches.

The costs in 18/19 were lower than forecast, but this was because of liberal incompetence making the rollout go slowly AND then used to create the 'back in black' surplus

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Labor in their wisdom then legislated to have details quartely reports to ensure issues were identified asap. Bill Shorten passed that law in June 2013.
So everyone knew the costs from the start and knew the progress every quarter since.

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To give you an idea of the abundance of information to show progress, here is one year of NDIS reports

The rollout mismanagement (slow to sign ppl up), led to lower NDIS costs than forecast. Shown here is the forecast spend (16.7B) and the actual spend ($12.9B) for 18/19

6/
The chasm is shown across all years here, including an attempt by the Liberals to "Reset" the rollout. They even failed to deliver to their 'Reset' plan. The $4B underspend was key to that imaginary surplus.

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Every year the Liberals keep saying NDIS costs to justify more Medicare levy. The Libs couldn't allow the NDIS 2 B seen as successful, so they kept inventing 'Labor bad' stories. Then Turnbull/Morrison had to concede that NDIS was funded (only b/c of their economic skills)

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Then Scott started other stories about rellocating for droubt funding etc.

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Of course the "Back in Black" budget fantasy was also reliant in the poor rollout speed, leading to a massive underspend.

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Another feature which does not get the credit it deserved was the wages harmonisation. Prior to NDIS there were over a hundred wages agreements across the sector nationwide. What became known as the SACS case was the determination needing to be made by the fair work

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commissioner to establish a consistent wage across the country for the different people doing NDIS work. Some people say that this was overlooked. It wasn't and the forecast for the increase in wages was legislated into a funding reserve. This 'special fund' was designed

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to make wages adjustments over 10 years. This ended last year and the Liberals somehow say it's a surprise. BUT it appears in the budget every year and the balance grew fatter as a result of the slow rollout. That $500M underspend is missing from the economy!

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I am proud of NDIS, I think all Australia should be proud of the NDIS, the way a society treats the most vulnerable is a measure of a society's success. Negotiating with every state to create a nationwide scheme is nothing short of remarkable.

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😃WELL DONE NEARLY FINISHED: In 2008, when Labor formalised Australia as a signatory to the UN Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities the country chose to move away from a 16 century nation state model for people with disabilities.

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The poor laws on 1601 entrenched the model of government control with church & charity determination for what disabled were provided with. It's a fascinating evolution.
What the NDIS did was make self determination the goal, people having the chance to control their own lives

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This is the end, for those who aren't familiar with John Walsh, he was instrumental in designing a people centric NDIS model.
Hope this has made sense and helped identify the Liberal/News Corp propaganda.
Well Done Labor #AlboForPM #NDIS