Thread by @vtchakarova

The danger of a military attack by Russia in the direct European neighborhood is permanent and the most recent escalation caused by its drastic troops mobilization will send a strong signal once again that a military attack could be imminent at any time. What’s Russia’s plan? /1

Russia‘s Putin is preparing for the „long game“, that is the systemic rivalry between USA and China. He seeks to upgrade his regional positioning by testing the American reaction (he knows that there won’t be a military involvement by US in Ukraine due to mid-term elections). /2

And at the same time, by showing muscle, Putin makes Russia an indispensable player, without which neither of the two rivals - USA & China, could win the future competition against each other. How many countries in the world could mobilize so many troops in such a short time? /3

Putin sees this optimal window of opportunity to test the readiness of US for bilateral talks with Moscow but also the red line for future concessions if Washington really intends to get Russia out of China’s orbit in the long term. Moscow has put its conditions on the table. /4

Simultaneously, Russia coordinated its view on Ukraine with China’s view on Taiwan & they created diplomatically a two-fronts-scenario which provides a breather for Beijing ahead of the Olympics following the upcoming Western boycotts. Russia keeps the West busy until Feb 20. /5

Putin sees an optimal window of opportunity to capitalize on this geopolitical context. His response is three-dimensional: 1) against Ukraine, which must always fear an imminent attack; 2) against the EU by humiliating 🇪🇺 powers because of their irrelevance in this escalation /6

And finally in the long run, 3) against China and the US by raising the price of Russia's future participation in their systemic rivalry as the new free rider of the Global System. The two-fronts-scenario helps Moscow leverage its positions against 🇨🇳& 🇺🇸 for different reasons./7

Following Russia’s military involvement in Kazakhstan with CSTO to stabilize the situation, Moscow in fact strengthened its bargaining power against US ahead of the upcoming talks with Biden and NATO, but also OSCE (the only European regional organization entailing Central Asia).

China is also satisfied that Russia was doing the dirty job to stabilize Kazakhstan ahead of the Olympics. China and Russia coordinate within SCO further actions against any terror activities & possible spillover effects from Afghanistan towards CA. China-led SCO sided with CSTO.

By keeping #Tokayev in power, Putin suddenly gained immense leverage over Kazakhstan and increased Russia’s bargaining power against China 🇨🇳 (commodities, access to BRI, CSTO-SCO, heartland), US 🇺🇸 (Biden-Putin talks) & EU 🇪🇺 (KZ is the third non-OPEC oil & uranium supplier).

The geopolitical crisis in #Kazakhstan is over despite domestic dynamics linked to power transition. All external actors were interested in swift solution for different reasons.
#Russia 🇷🇺 eyes are on the talks with US now & its stick is 100,000 troops along Ukraine’s 🇺🇦 border.

Russia 🇷🇺 plays an indispensable role by turning into a mercenary power for China’s geoeconomic projection amid systemic rivalry btw 🇺🇸 & 🇨🇳.
Russia stabilized Kazakhstan 🇰🇿 militarily but China will stabilize it economically. This can become a pattern in Central Asia and beyond.

Russia-led CSTO can intervene militarily in Central Asia to restore stability, while China could offer economic support to stabilize the situation in the long run. A merger of activities between CSTO & SCO could also take place. The #dragonbear keeps external forces away from CA.

#Timestamp from January 25

#Timestamp from February 15