Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/9 - Mar 17 to Mar 23 -
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 300+ countries/ territories on our dashboard:
tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb

Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/9 - Western Europe
New wave of #COVID19 #BA2 cases, with [very high] high/med-low mortality:
Rising: [FL (R-eff=1.32)] AU=1.14/UK=1.20; FR=1.17; IT=1.17; LUX=1.11; IRL=1.19; CH=1.11;
Increasing/plateauing: DE=1.08; PT=1.05/NL=0.99;
Landing: [DK]; BE; ICL; NO; SE.

3/9 - East-Central Europe
[Plateau] decrease in #COVID19 cases with very high to high mortality in [Croat=1.06; CZ=1.04; Lith=0.95; Pol=0.95; Serbia=0.91; Slovak=0.92]; Bulg; Georg; Hung; Romania; Russia;
Greece (R-eff=1.15).
No report from Ukraine (35.5% 1 dose) since Feb 24.

4/9 - Africa -
Plateauing in Tunisia (R-eff=0.97), with low mortality;
Safe everywhere else in #COVID19 contaminations;
Underreporting in many areas.

5/9 - Middle-East
- Cyprus (R-eff=1.18), close to the sub-region, is rising with high mortality;
- Slow landing towards their #COVID19 safety zones, with med/low mortality in Jordan=0.96/Israel=0.91;
- Safe elsewhere.

6/9 - Asia & Pacific
- Rising/surging in their #COVID19 epidemic activity in Vietnam (R-eff=1.19)/Laos=1.32; Bhutan=1.21, with low mortality;
- Plateauing in Thailand=1.03, medium mort; Malaysia=0.95, high mortality;
- Landing in Brunei.

7/9 - Asia & Pacific (cont'd)
- Surge in #COVID19 epidemic activity in [South Korea (R-eff=1.22)]; Australia=1.24, [very high] low mortality; (both: 87% 1 dose);
- Peaking in New Zealand=1.03, med mort;
- [Slow] landing: [Japan=0.91]; Singapore; China=0.74;
- Safe: Taiwan=1.06.

8/9 - North America -
- Canada (R-eff=0.87) is landing towards its #COVID19 safe zone, low mort, 86.8% 1 dose. Green in Sask; BC; red (R-eff>0.90) in Ont; ALB; MAN; QC;
- USA=0.87 (76.6%) are landing, high mort. Green in 21 states, red in 13, orange elsewhere.

9/9 - Latin America -
The sub-region shows improvement in its #COVID19 new cases, with [very] high-medium mortality;
Increasing in Cuba (R-eff=1.05);
Landing in [Chile]; Argentina; Brazil; Uruguay;
Safe in Bolivia; Colombia; Mexico; Paraguay; Peru.

10/9 - Read forecasting for other countries by following
@KristenN_06
@elisa_manetti
@AdelineDugerdil

Definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K population/week
30 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 140 cases/week
140 < High level < 700
Very high level > 700...

11/9 - ... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0