Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/9 - Mar 22 to Mar 28 -
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 300+ countries/ territories on our dashboard:
tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb

Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/9 - Western Europe
#BA2 wave of #COVID19 cases, with [very high] high/med-low mortality:
Rising: IT (R-eff=1.19); FR=1.18; UK=1.18; IRL=1.16;BE=1.13;LUX=1.12;AU=1.09;
Plateauing: [FL=0.98)]; DE=1.06; CH=1.0;
Landing: [DK]; ICL; NO; NL;
No report from SP;SE;PT.

3/9 - East-Central Europe
- Increase/plateau in #COVID19 cases with high mortality in Croat (R-eff=1.07); Greece=1.07; CZ=0.96; Rom=0.95;Lith=0.97; Pol=0.95;Serbia=0.97;
- (Slow) landing in (Slov=0.94; Hung=0.94; Bulg=0.93;Belarus=0.90;) Russia;
No report from Ukraine (Feb 24).

4/9 - Africa -
Plateauing in Tunisia (R-eff=0.99), with low mortality;
Safe everywhere else in #COVID19 contaminations;
Underreporting in many areas.

5/9 - Middle-East
- Cyprus (R-eff=1.17), close to the sub-region is rising with high mortality;
- Rising in Israel (R-eff=1.19) in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with low mortality;
- Qatar=0.97 is flirting with the upper bound of its safety zone, no mortality.
- Safe elsewhere.

6/9 - Asia & Pacific
- Increasing-rising in their #COVID19 epidemic activity in Laos (R-eff=1.42); Bhutan=1.12; Vietnam=1.07, with low mortality;
- Plateauing in Thailand=1.04, medium mort;
- (Slow) landing in (Malaysia=0.90); Brunei.

7/9 - Asia & Pacific (cont'd)
- Rise/surge in #COVID19 epidemic activity in [South Korea (R-eff=1.11)]/Australia=1.22, [very high] low mortality (both: 87% 1 dose);
- Peaking in New Zealand=0.97, high mort;
- Landing: Japan=0.90; Singapore; China=0.79;
- Safe: Taiwan=1.13.

8/9 - North America -
- Canada (R-eff=1.02) is plateauing in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, low mort, 86.8% 1 dose. Green in Sask; BC; red (R-eff>0.90) in Ont; ALB; MAN; QC;
- USA=0.89 (76.6%) are landing, high mort. Green in 18 states, red in 22, orange elsewhere.

9/9 - Latin America -
The sub-region shows improvement in its #COVID19 new cases, with high-medium mortality;
Rise in Cuba (R-eff=1.13);
[Plateauing] landing in [Uruguay=0.96]; Chile; Argentina; Brazil;
Safe in Bolivia; Colombia; Ecuador; Mexico; Paraguay; Peru.

10/9 - Read forecasting for other countries by following
@KristenN_06
@elisa_manetti
@AdelineDugerdil

Definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K population/week
30 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 140 cases/week
140 < High level < 700
Very high level > 700...

11/9 - ... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0