Thread by @therationalroot

1/8 Why the April 2021 top could be seen as the real bull market cycle top. #Bitcoin
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2/8 I've been posting charts comparing the #Bitcoin cycles aligned by ATH's using the April 2021 top and get obviously many comments saying that "November is the ATH".
Although a case could be made to use November, in this thread I'll explain why I believe April might be better.

3/8 Most on-chain but also traditional indicators show a top in April rather than November.
Looking at #Bitcoin's supply we see that the first peak of 2021 has an enormous increase in Short-term Holder supply while the second has none.

4/8 If we look at MVRV Z-Score which compares the distance between the Market Cap and the Realized Cap (the sum of the on-chain price of all #Bitcoin), we again see a peak in the first top of 2021.

5/8 Also traditional indicator such as the RSI show that we peaked in the first top of 2021 and are currently reaching lows.

6/8 Note how the 2019 and November 2021 rally are very similar. Both were mostly based on LTH's although 2019 also had a slight increase in STH Supply.

Based on the above we can now divide the market into bull and bear segments from the previous ATH until the "new ATH".

7/8 The November 2021 ATH was actually a higher high based on a LTH rally that came early, whereas in the 2017 cycle we had it after the bear bottom.
It's also noticeable how the bull market of 2021 was quite short. #Bitcoin

8/8 It's not only promising how we made an ATH based on LTH conviction in bear market conditions but also that we've already been consolidating for over a year increasing our chances that a bottom is near.

Thanks for making it to the end!