The drop below 90 was expected; however, May’s close was surprisingly low.
It’s good to mention that, if the bottom indeed is in, it fell exactly together with the monthly close bringing the RSI down further than previous cycles where the bottom was at least several days apart.
I sure expect June’s close to be an uptrend for otherwise it would be a first time to have 3 consecutive months in a downtrend which we have not seen in previous cycles and would mean uncharted territory.
Measuring from the previous ATH this cycle took 28,5% longer the reach the mid-cycle dip (assuming that the low is in). If we continue the same trend as previous cycles at this slower pace, the ATH would be on 6 Dec 2021.
If from now on we continue at the same pace as previous cycles, the ATH would be at the start of the blue area.
We are comparing each bull market by taking an aggregate of the days that we have been exploring/discovering new ATH’s aka the most bullish days of #bitcoin when FOMO is at peak levels.
Consolidation is left out since we are interested in measuring each cycle's FOMO strength.
By doing this we find a few very interesting observations:
The strength of each cycle stays remarkably consistent for the entire bull market! It follows a linear path with an uptick at the end.
We had no such uptick yet, a sign that the top is not in? 👀
Most signs point out that this cycle is a combination of 2013 and 2017. Therefore, it is likely that the duration of the consolidation phase is also in between the two. We had 174 days in 2013 and 55 in 2017. We are only 30 days in (or 61 if you count from March 13th).
Another month at the very least (even 2) would be totally normal! Initially I drew path A but maybe path B might be more likely now. This also aligns with an RSI monthly close below 90 (more on this below).
How deep can we go? I initially expected a dip to max ~43k but as low as 38k would not break market structure. 38k is unlikely as this implies > 37% drop. We didn’t get 43k in the last dip, will we now? We might but I wouldn’t count on it, we haven’t seen this kinda volatility.
We struggled, had several tries and didn't push through the 60s.
Did we run out of money?
#bitcoin's market cap is hovering around 1T, that is significantly larger than previous cycles. We don’t have enough money to push through.
A common misconception, thread:
What determines the price?
Answer: the last sell, that’s it.
If we run out of sellers, price will go up until somebody bids high enough for somebody to sell.
What we really need are strong hands, and a single soul to buy at a high price.
Hype naturally attracts weak hands, that is also what this correction is about imo. When we run out of weak hands the correction ends and the price is ready for the next leg up.