Chart thread! Here are the charts I used on my recent @WhatBitcoinDid appearance.

37,000+ views on YouTube! 🧡🔥

🧵👇

The 4-year cycle is on point!
Each cycle consists of 3 phases. 🧵👇
#Bitcoin 2/ The 4-year spiral chart is my go-to for discussing timing in #Bitcoin. The color-coded chart reflects unrealized profit and losses, unveiling cycle patterns.

@WhatBitcoinDid 🧵Here are the slides/charts we cover: @WhatBitcoinDid

Slides used with @PeterMcCormack @WhatBitcoinDid.
Hope you enjoy the podcast/youtube!
🧵👇 Spiral based on Halvings/blocks. #Bitcoin

"#Bitcoin ready for major leg down to 9k 😱"

I've seen this chart doing the rounds, time to discuss some misconceptions 🧵👇 First, let's zoom out to provide some context where we're coming from.
Two things stick out immediately:
1. We really went sideways into this All-Time-High alignment.
2. We're comparing previous pointy blow-off tops to a flat distribution top.

Perhaps the most important chart in #Bitcoin currently!

For the past months we've had LTH capitulation ⁠— shown by the rapidly falling LTH Cost Basis.👇

An uptick is a first sign that LTH’s might have stopped capitulating! Note: early signal, but finally a change in trend! Context: The LTH Cost Basis is the average purchase price of all LTH's. While we had STH capitulation earlier this year, the drawdown of past months was mostly caused by LTH’s as the Cost Basis declining means more recent LTH's where selling coins purchased at higher prices.

1/8 Why the April 2021 top could be seen as the real bull market cycle top. #Bitcoin
🧵👇 2/8 I've been posting charts comparing the #Bitcoin cycles aligned by ATH's using the April 2021 top and get obviously many comments saying that "November is the ATH".
Although a case could be made to use November, in this thread I'll explain why I believe April might be better.

According to the popular on-chain metric MVRV Z-Score there's still room to go down (capitulation).
Some misconceptions about what's going on here, let's take a closer look! #Bitcoin
Short 🧵👇 First, what does MVRV Z-score mean? MVRV shows the distance between the Market Cap (Value) vs. Realized Cap (Value). This is the same thing as the z-score distance between Price vs. Realized Price. For MVRV Z-Score to go below zero means that price should go below realized price.

Getting ready for @BitcoinMagazine Spaces!
The HODL Model: illiquid supply outpacing supply issuance.

We'll discuss the charts in this thread 🧵👇
twitter.com/i/spaces/1YpJk… 1/ Illiquid Supply growth

The HODL Model: #Bitcoin's illiquid supply is outpacing supply issuance.
As illiquid supply rises, so do the market impacts of bitcoin's digital scarcity.

Short 🧵👇 Below thread is a summary of the full article 👇
bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/the-ho…

While my base case remains ranging between the STH Cost Basis and Mezzanine, with this type of macro-uncertainty we cannot rule out a visit to the Floor.
Note that we’re still in a down-ranging trend, only by breaking the STH Cost Basis we’ll change that trend.
1/ Short 🧵👇 2/ What is the idea behind the Floor and Mezzanine?
They are price bands based on the Short Term Holder Cost Basis, the average price that STH’s buy their #Bitcoin.

The reason for current extended sell-off, short 🧵👇

Asia’s largest exchange, Huobi, has stopped related trading in China. #Bitcoin has been flowing from Asia to the US and Europe for some time. Thanks to @ultravirtu for bringing the Asian sell-pressure to our attention.

https://twitter.com/ultravirtu/status/1471883101022433284?s=20

Will, really look forward to this conversation!
I have a question, mainly for @woonomic, which I hope you can extensively cover 🙏.
🧵👇
1/10

https://twitter.com/WClementeIII/status/1454192467406958595

In @PrestonPysh's latest pod Willy talked about how this cycle is very different, that since the derivatives came into play in 2018 things have changed and among other things I believe he mentioned this reflects in onchain, price and volatility.
2/10

Update on the RSI.
We closed July at 64 and are in the upward trend again.
Short 🧵👇
#Bitcoin It took a month longer than in 2013 for the trend to change as this time we had 3 consecutive months in a downtrend making a low on June's close.

So bearish today even though we are still hovering around the same range (~35k) totally in line with previous bull markets!
🧵👇
#Bitcoin Most on-chain indicators show we are undervalued for some time now. We can't rule out that we might go lower, although, if we do most likely it will be a spike down.

https://twitter.com/therationalroot/status/1402008259393957896?s=20

Part of the Twitter Spaces conversation with the president of El Salvador @nayibbukele, @nic__carter, @APompliano , @CaitlinLong_ and more..

Amazing to join the conversation live with >22k bitcoiners where history is written.

Will El Salvador hold #Bitcoin on their balance:
1: “In a couple of months the development bank [trust fund] will hold ~$150 million equivalent in #bitcoin.” - @nayibbukele
“[This is] a starter package” - @bukele
2:

Update on the RSI.
We closed May at 61 and are still on track!
Short 🧵👇

#Bitcoin The drop below 90 was expected; however, May’s close was surprisingly low.
It’s good to mention that, if the bottom indeed is in, it fell exactly together with the monthly close bringing the RSI down further than previous cycles where the bottom was at least several days apart.

Projected ATH date based on previous cycles.

#Bitcoin Measuring from the previous ATH this cycle took 28,5% longer the reach the mid-cycle dip (assuming that the low is in). If we continue the same trend as previous cycles at this slower pace, the ATH would be on 6 Dec 2021.

Instead of the FUD let’s have another look at FOMO
(including price predictions* 👀).

The chart below is not as intuitive, therefore this time a more detailed explanation as there are some very interesting insights: 🧵👇

#Bitcoin We are comparing each bull market by taking an aggregate of the days that we have been exploring/discovering new ATH’s aka the most bullish days of #bitcoin when FOMO is at peak levels.
Consolidation is left out since we are interested in measuring each cycle's FOMO strength.

Most signs point out that this cycle is a combination of 2013 and 2017. Therefore, it is likely that the duration of the consolidation phase is also in between the two. We had 174 days in 2013 and 55 in 2017. We are only 30 days in (or 61 if you count from March 13th). Another month at the very least (even 2) would be totally normal! Initially I drew path A but maybe path B might be more likely now. This also aligns with an RSI monthly close below 90 (more on this below).

We struggled, had several tries and didn't push through the 60s.
Did we run out of money?

#bitcoin's market cap is hovering around 1T, that is significantly larger than previous cycles. We don’t have enough money to push through.

A common misconception, thread: What determines the price?
Answer: the last sell, that’s it.
If we run out of sellers, price will go up until somebody bids high enough for somebody to sell.
What we really need are strong hands, and a single soul to buy at a high price.