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#Bitcoin on-chain & cycle analysis. Signal only. Follow the carrot down the rabbit hole.
1 Aug
Update on the RSI.
We closed July at 64 and are in the upward trend again.
Short 🧵👇
It took a month longer than in 2013 for the trend to change as this time we had 3 consecutive months in a downtrend making a low on June's close.
Like previous cycles we now have a steep recovery with July's close at 64. If history is any indicator we should go to the RSI 90's from here over the next 6 months.
Read 6 tweets
20 Jun
So bearish today even though we are still hovering around the same range (~35k) totally in line with previous bull markets!
Most on-chain indicators show we are undervalued for some time now. We can't rule out that we might go lower, although, if we do most likely it will be a spike down.
Since the last time I tweeted this chart we made a slight lower low and the 2021 recovery-line therefore is now exactly on par with 2017.
Read 7 tweets
9 Jun
Part of the Twitter Spaces conversation with the president of El Salvador @nayibbukele, @nic__carter, @APompliano , @CaitlinLong_ and more..

Amazing to join the conversation live with >22k bitcoiners where history is written.

Will El Salvador hold #Bitcoin on their balance:
“In a couple of months the development bank [trust fund] will hold ~$150 million equivalent in #bitcoin.” - @nayibbukele
“[This is] a starter package” - @bukele
Thanks @nic__carter for setting this up! You're the boss by decree!

The way the president has to go, he's rather talking to bitcoiners 🤣
Btw: The #Bitcoin bill in El Salvador has passed with 62/84 votes.

Read 5 tweets
1 Jun
Update on the RSI.
We closed May at 61 and are still on track!
Short 🧵👇

The drop below 90 was expected; however, May’s close was surprisingly low.
It’s good to mention that, if the bottom indeed is in, it fell exactly together with the monthly close bringing the RSI down further than previous cycles where the bottom was at least several days apart.
I sure expect June’s close to be an uptrend for otherwise it would be a first time to have 3 consecutive months in a downtrend which we have not seen in previous cycles and would mean uncharted territory.
Read 5 tweets
27 May
Projected ATH date based on previous cycles.

Measuring from the previous ATH this cycle took 28,5% longer the reach the mid-cycle dip (assuming that the low is in). If we continue the same trend as previous cycles at this slower pace, the ATH would be on 6 Dec 2021.
If from now on we continue at the same pace as previous cycles, the ATH would be at the start of the blue area.

Future evaluations are definitely needed.
Read 5 tweets
24 May
Instead of the FUD let’s have another look at FOMO
(including price predictions* 👀).

The chart below is not as intuitive, therefore this time a more detailed explanation as there are some very interesting insights: 🧵👇

We are comparing each bull market by taking an aggregate of the days that we have been exploring/discovering new ATH’s aka the most bullish days of #bitcoin when FOMO is at peak levels.
Consolidation is left out since we are interested in measuring each cycle's FOMO strength.
By doing this we find a few very interesting observations:
The strength of each cycle stays remarkably consistent for the entire bull market! It follows a linear path with an uptick at the end.
We had no such uptick yet, a sign that the top is not in? 👀
Read 8 tweets
13 May
Most signs point out that this cycle is a combination of 2013 and 2017. Therefore, it is likely that the duration of the consolidation phase is also in between the two. We had 174 days in 2013 and 55 in 2017. We are only 30 days in (or 61 if you count from March 13th).
Another month at the very least (even 2) would be totally normal! Initially I drew path A but maybe path B might be more likely now. This also aligns with an RSI monthly close below 90 (more on this below).
How deep can we go? I initially expected a dip to max ~43k but as low as 38k would not break market structure. 38k is unlikely as this implies > 37% drop. We didn’t get 43k in the last dip, will we now? We might but I wouldn’t count on it, we haven’t seen this kinda volatility.
Read 5 tweets
24 Apr
We struggled, had several tries and didn't push through the 60s.
Did we run out of money?

#bitcoin's market cap is hovering around 1T, that is significantly larger than previous cycles. We don’t have enough money to push through.

A common misconception, thread:
What determines the price?
Answer: the last sell, that’s it.
If we run out of sellers, price will go up until somebody bids high enough for somebody to sell.
What we really need are strong hands, and a single soul to buy at a high price.
Hype naturally attracts weak hands, that is also what this correction is about imo. When we run out of weak hands the correction ends and the price is ready for the next leg up.
Read 7 tweets