Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/9 - May 20 to May 26 -
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 300+ countries/ territories on our dashboard:
tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb

Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/9 - Western Europe
#COVID19 cases are either surging again or improving at slower pace:
- Surge in [PT (R-eff=1.21); IRL=1.35; ICL=1.29], low [high] mortality;
- Increase/Plateau in NL=1.05/UK=0.96; SP=0.96;
- (Slow) landing: (LUX=0.92); FR=0.89; NO; AU; IT; CH; DK; DE; BE; FL.

3/9 - East-Central Europe
- (Slowly) landing towards their #COVID19 safety zones in Greece (R-eff=0.91); Croatia; Slovenia; Hungary; Latvia; Estonia;
- Safe elsewhere.
No report from Ukraine since Feb 24.

4/9 - Africa -
- Peak reached for #COVID19 new contaminations due to sub-variants #BA4/#BA5 in South Africa (R-eff=0.97);
- Surge/rise in Zimbabwe=1.26; Namibia=1.24; Morocco=1.20/Eswatini=1.10; Zambia=1.16, with very low mortality;
- Underreporting in many areas.

5/9 - Middle-East
- Rise in their #COVID19 epidemic activity in Qatar (R-eff=1.16), Saudi Arabia=1.33; UAE=1.14, with no mortality;
- Increase in Israel=1.05, with high mortality;
- Safe elsewhere.

6/9 - Asia & Pacific
- Surge in its #COVID19 epid activ, in Taiwan (R-eff=1.28), high mortality;
- Increase in Australia=1.07, high mort; Singapore=1.08, low mort.
- Plateau in New Zealand=1.02; Japan=0.98, [high] low mort;
- Landing in S Korea;
- Worrying news from N Korea.

7/9 - Asia & Pacific (cont'd)
- Slow landing in its #COVID19 epidemic activity in Malaysia (R-eff=0.93), with very low mortality;
- Landing in Thailand, with low mortality;
- Safe elsewhere.

8/9 - North America -
- New wave in the USA=1.10 (78.4%) which are rising, with med mortality. Red in all states.
- Canada (R-eff=0.86) is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone, medium mortality, 87.7% 1 dose. Green in BC; ALB; Sask and MAN; orange in QC; ONT.

9/9 - Latin America -
The sub-region is entering in its cold season and experience increase in #COVID19 new cases, with low-med mortality:
- Surging in Panama (R-eff=1.20); Uruguay=1.35; Argentina=1.30; Jamaica=1.22; Belize=1.34; Chile=1.24;
- Increasing in Brazil=1.08.

10/9 - Read forecasting for other countries by following
@KristenN_06
@elisa_manetti
@AdelineDugerdil

Definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K population/week
30 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 140 cases/week
140 < High level < 700
Very high level > 700...

11/9 - ... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0