Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/9 - May 21 to May 27 -
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 300+ countries/ territories on our dashboard:
tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb

Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/9 - Western Europe
#COVID19 cases are either surging again or improving at slower pace:
- Surge in [PT (R-eff=1.24); IRL=1.33; ICL=1.27], low [high] mortality;
- Plateau in NL=1.03/ SP=0.96;
- (Slow) landing: (UK=0.94); FR=0.89; AU; IT; CH; DK; DE; BE; FL.

3/9 - East-Central Europe
- (Slowly) landing towards their #COVID19 safety zones in Greece (R-eff=0.90); Croatia; Slovenia; Hungary; Latvia; Estonia;
- Safe elsewhere.
No report from Ukraine since Feb 24.

4/9 - Africa -
- Landing in South Africa (R-eff=0.86) towards its #COVID19 safety zone, ending a wave due to sub-variants #BA4/#BA5. Peak in Eswatini=1.02;
- Surge/rise in Zimbabwe=1.25; Namibia=1.23; Morocco=1.24/Zambia=1.16, with very low mortality;
- Lot of underreporting.

5/9 - Middle-East
- Surge-rise/increase in their #COVID19 epidemic activity in Saudi Arabia (R-eff=1.28) - Qatar=1.12, / UAE=1.06, with very low mortality;
- Plateau in Israel=1.03, with high mortality;
- Safe elsewhere.

6/9 - Asia & Pacific
- Surge in its #COVID19 epid activ, in Taiwan (R-eff=1.26), high mortality;
- Increase in Australia=1.06, high mort; Singapore=1.08, low mort.
- Plateau in New Zealand=1.01; Japan=0.98, [high] low mort;
- Landing in S Korea;
- Worrying news from N Korea.

7/9 - Asia & Pacific (cont'd)
- Landing in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, in Thailand and Malaysia, with low mortality;
- Safe elsewhere.

8/9 - North America -
- New wave in the USA=1.17 (78.4%) which are rising, with med mortality. Red in all states, but Montana.
- Canada (R-eff=0.83) is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone, medium mortality, 87.9% 1 dose. Green in BC; ALB; Sask and MAN; orange in QC; ONT.

9/9 - Latin America -
The sub-region is entering in its cold season and experience increase in #COVID19 new cases, with low-med mortality:
- Surging in Panama (R-eff=1.19); Uruguay=1.33; Argentina=1.28; Jamaica=1.22; Belize=1.32; Chile=1.24;
- Landing in Brazil.

10/9 - Read forecasting for other countries by following
@KristenN_06
@elisa_manetti
@AdelineDugerdil

Definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K population/week
30 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 140 cases/week
140 < High level < 700
Very high level > 700...

11/9 - ... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0