Ridhwaan Suliman Profile picture
Making sense of the numbers so you don't have to! Principal Researcher. Applied Mathematician. PhD @Cambridge_Uni. Tweeting in my personal capacity

May 25, 2022, 6 tweets

[Thread] One more, hopefully last, update of latest #COVID19 indicators for Omicron BA.4 & BA.5 -driven #5thWave in Gauteng, South Africa πŸ‡ΏπŸ‡¦

TL;DR :
- Cases declining πŸ“‰
- Test % positivity declining πŸ“‰
- Hospitalisations peaked πŸ™Œ
- Deaths low and slowing 🀞

Thread 🧡.. 1/6

With new #COVID19 cases in GautengπŸ‡ΏπŸ‡¦ having peaked recently, promisingly cases didn't plateau but well on the decline now πŸ“‰

Current 7-day rolling avg at 1,609 or 10.2 per 100k, down 39% week-on-week and already down to 51% of recent peak πŸ‘

2/6

Latest #COVID19 test % positivity in GautengπŸ‡ΏπŸ‡¦ for week ending 21 May = 19.6% πŸ“‰

Testing has remained low, understandably, so test % positivity is naturally higher but after peaking it has continued to decline, confirming the decline in infections πŸ‘

3/6

Promisingly, after a lag, hospital admissions in GautengπŸ‡ΏπŸ‡¦ peaked over the past week πŸ™Œ

Case hospitalisation ratio has been similar to Omicron BA.1 wave, but with reduced testing cases are underestimated

Hospital admissions peaked at ~35% of previous Omicron BA.1 wave πŸ“‰

4/6

Reported #COVID19 deaths in Gauteng πŸ‡ΏπŸ‡¦ are still increasing, as expected due to the lag, but the rate of increase has slowed 🀞

Further, deaths have remained significantly lower than that previous waves πŸ™

5/6

Again, trends in this BA.4 & BA.5 driven #5thWave of #COVID19 infections in Gauteng province, South AfricaπŸ‡ΏπŸ‡¦ have continued as expected: A less severe wave with significantly fewer hospitalisations and deaths due to high levels of population immunity πŸ’ͺ

6/6
[Ends]

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