With new #COVID19 cases in Gauteng๐ฟ๐ฆ having peaked recently, promisingly cases didn't plateau but well on the decline now ๐
Current 7-day rolling avg at 1,609 or 10.2 per 100k, down 39% week-on-week and already down to 51% of recent peak ๐
2/6
Latest #COVID19 test % positivity in Gauteng๐ฟ๐ฆ for week ending 21 May = 19.6% ๐
Testing has remained low, understandably, so test % positivity is naturally higher but after peaking it has continued to decline, confirming the decline in infections ๐
3/6
Promisingly, after a lag, hospital admissions in Gauteng๐ฟ๐ฆ peaked over the past week ๐
Case hospitalisation ratio has been similar to Omicron BA.1 wave, but with reduced testing cases are underestimated
Hospital admissions peaked at ~35% of previous Omicron BA.1 wave ๐
4/6
Reported #COVID19 deaths in Gauteng ๐ฟ๐ฆ are still increasing, as expected due to the lag, but the rate of increase has slowed ๐ค
Further, deaths have remained significantly lower than that previous waves ๐
5/6
Again, trends in this BA.4 & BA.5 driven #5thWave of #COVID19 infections in Gauteng province, South Africa๐ฟ๐ฆ have continued as expected: A less severe wave with significantly fewer hospitalisations and deaths due to high levels of population immunity ๐ช
6/6 [Ends]
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I'm back with another tweet on #COVID19 in South Africa๐ฟ๐ฆ (that hiatus didn't last long) ๐
A lot of questions about whether it's the right decision to stop reporting daily #SARSCoV2 data in SA?
I believe it is, for a few reasons... [Thread] ๐งต
1. Yes #SARSCoV2 is still around, and won't magically disappear, but the risk of severe disease and death has reduced significantly, primarily due to high levels of population immunity in the country.
Graph of reported and in-hospital #COVID19 deaths in SA๐ฟ๐ฆ shown below:
2. Testing has declined substantially, and so case numbers and even test % positivity have become unreliable as a true reflection of actual #COVID19 infection rates.
An ONS-style randomised infection survey as done in the UK๐ฌ๐ง would be useful, but we don't have such here in SA๐ฟ๐ฆ
Thread.. ๐งต
I have received a lot of questions about #COVID19 deaths in South Africa ๐ฟ๐ฆ
Here's a graph showing the different metrics of mortality: reported #COVID19 deaths, in-hospital #Covid_19 deaths, and excess deaths over the course of the pandemic :
1/n
There have been 1,274 total deaths reported over this BA.4/BA.5 or 5th wave of #COVID19 in South Africa ๐ฟ๐ฆ
This is just over one-fifth (21.5%) of the 5,923 cumulative deaths reported over previous Omicron BA.1 wave over the summer months & significantly less than previous waves
Reporting of #COVID19 deaths in South Africa๐ฟ๐ฆ are laggy and under-estimated. Since the Omicron BA.1 wave, NDoH has been conducting audit exercises and reporting backlogs but unfortunately provide no context as to when those deaths actually occurred nor make that data available๐คทโโ๏ธ
[Thread] Update of #COVID19 numbers in Gauteng๐ฟ๐ฆ
Here's an update of the latest #COVID19 indicators in Gauteng๐ฟ๐ฆ, where Omicron sublineages BA.4 & BA.5 are driving a 5th wave of infections
Spoiler: continued decoupling; hospitalisations and deaths remain low...
Thread ๐งต ../6
3,484 new #COVID19 cases reported in Gauteng ๐ฟ๐ฆ today, 7-day rolling avg at 3,105 ๐
Case incidence = 19.1 per 100k population, and up to 29% of BA.1 peak ๐๏ธ
Case rate up 27% compared to a week ago, but even though testing remains low it's showing signs of slowing again ๐ง
2/6
Latest test % positivity in Gauteng๐ฟ๐ฆ for week ending 7 May = 26.2% ๐ฉ
Testing remains significantly lower than before, not surprising... But while test % positivity is very high (1 in ~4 tests positive), it too appears to be flattening ๐ค
[Thread] Update of #COVID19 numbers in Gauteng ๐ฟ๐ฆ
Gauteng, with ~25% of SA's population, is once again the epicentre of a resurgence of #Covid_19 in South Africa ๐ฟ๐ฆ
A surge in infection rates, increasing demand on hospitalisations, reported deaths remain low...
Thread ๐งต ../n
Another 3,145 #COVID19 cases reported in Gauteng ๐ฟ๐ฆ today, 7-day rolling avg at 2,117 โฌ๏ธ
Case incidence = 13.4 per 100k population, up to 20% of recent peak ๐๏ธ
Case rate up 173% week-on-week or currently doubling every 4.8 days ๐
2/n
Latest test % positivity in Gauteng๐ฟ๐ฆ for week ending 23 Apr = 20.2% ๐ฉ
Not surprising given fewer people testing, but increase is steep, up from 11.9% a week prior. With 1 in every 5 tests returning a positive result, it also indicates many more cases going undetected ๐ง