Ridhwaan Suliman Profile picture
May 25, 2022 โ€ข 6 tweets โ€ข 4 min read โ€ข Read on X
[Thread] One more, hopefully last, update of latest #COVID19 indicators for Omicron BA.4 & BA.5 -driven #5thWave in Gauteng, South Africa ๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ

TL;DR :
- Cases declining ๐Ÿ“‰
- Test % positivity declining ๐Ÿ“‰
- Hospitalisations peaked ๐Ÿ™Œ
- Deaths low and slowing ๐Ÿคž

Thread ๐Ÿงต.. 1/6
With new #COVID19 cases in Gauteng๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ having peaked recently, promisingly cases didn't plateau but well on the decline now ๐Ÿ“‰

Current 7-day rolling avg at 1,609 or 10.2 per 100k, down 39% week-on-week and already down to 51% of recent peak ๐Ÿ‘

2/6
Latest #COVID19 test % positivity in Gauteng๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ for week ending 21 May = 19.6% ๐Ÿ“‰

Testing has remained low, understandably, so test % positivity is naturally higher but after peaking it has continued to decline, confirming the decline in infections ๐Ÿ‘

3/6
Promisingly, after a lag, hospital admissions in Gauteng๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ peaked over the past week ๐Ÿ™Œ

Case hospitalisation ratio has been similar to Omicron BA.1 wave, but with reduced testing cases are underestimated

Hospital admissions peaked at ~35% of previous Omicron BA.1 wave ๐Ÿ“‰

4/6
Reported #COVID19 deaths in Gauteng ๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ are still increasing, as expected due to the lag, but the rate of increase has slowed ๐Ÿคž

Further, deaths have remained significantly lower than that previous waves ๐Ÿ™

5/6
Again, trends in this BA.4 & BA.5 driven #5thWave of #COVID19 infections in Gauteng province, South Africa๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ have continued as expected: A less severe wave with significantly fewer hospitalisations and deaths due to high levels of population immunity ๐Ÿ’ช

6/6
[Ends]

โ€ข โ€ข โ€ข

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
ใ€€

Keep Current with Ridhwaan Suliman

Ridhwaan Suliman Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @rid1tweets

Aug 1, 2022
I'm back with another tweet on #COVID19 in South Africa๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ (that hiatus didn't last long) ๐Ÿ˜…
A lot of questions about whether it's the right decision to stop reporting daily #SARSCoV2 data in SA?
I believe it is, for a few reasons... [Thread] ๐Ÿงต
1. Yes #SARSCoV2 is still around, and won't magically disappear, but the risk of severe disease and death has reduced significantly, primarily due to high levels of population immunity in the country.
Graph of reported and in-hospital #COVID19 deaths in SA๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ shown below:
2. Testing has declined substantially, and so case numbers and even test % positivity have become unreliable as a true reflection of actual #COVID19 infection rates.
An ONS-style randomised infection survey as done in the UK๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง would be useful, but we don't have such here in SA๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ
Read 4 tweets
Jun 14, 2022
Thread.. ๐Ÿงต
I have received a lot of questions about #COVID19 deaths in South Africa ๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ

Here's a graph showing the different metrics of mortality: reported #COVID19 deaths, in-hospital #Covid_19 deaths, and excess deaths over the course of the pandemic :

1/n
There have been 1,274 total deaths reported over this BA.4/BA.5 or 5th wave of #COVID19 in South Africa ๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ

This is just over one-fifth (21.5%) of the 5,923 cumulative deaths reported over previous Omicron BA.1 wave over the summer months & significantly less than previous waves
Reporting of #COVID19 deaths in South Africa๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ are laggy and under-estimated. Since the Omicron BA.1 wave, NDoH has been conducting audit exercises and reporting backlogs but unfortunately provide no context as to when those deaths actually occurred nor make that data available๐Ÿคทโ€โ™‚๏ธ
Read 11 tweets
May 12, 2022
[Thread] Update of #COVID19 numbers in Gauteng๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ

Here's an update of the latest #COVID19 indicators in Gauteng๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ, where Omicron sublineages BA.4 & BA.5 are driving a 5th wave of infections

Spoiler: continued decoupling; hospitalisations and deaths remain low...

Thread ๐Ÿงต ../6
3,484 new #COVID19 cases reported in Gauteng ๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ today, 7-day rolling avg at 3,105 ๐Ÿ“ˆ

Case incidence = 19.1 per 100k population, and up to 29% of BA.1 peak ๐Ÿ”๏ธ

Case rate up 27% compared to a week ago, but even though testing remains low it's showing signs of slowing again ๐Ÿง

2/6
Latest test % positivity in Gauteng๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ for week ending 7 May = 26.2% ๐Ÿšฉ

Testing remains significantly lower than before, not surprising... But while test % positivity is very high (1 in ~4 tests positive), it too appears to be flattening ๐Ÿคž

3/6
Read 6 tweets
Apr 27, 2022
[Thread] Update of #COVID19 numbers in Gauteng ๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ

Gauteng, with ~25% of SA's population, is once again the epicentre of a resurgence of #Covid_19 in South Africa ๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ

A surge in infection rates, increasing demand on hospitalisations, reported deaths remain low...

Thread ๐Ÿงต ../n
Another 3,145 #COVID19 cases reported in Gauteng ๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ today, 7-day rolling avg at 2,117 โฌ†๏ธ

Case incidence = 13.4 per 100k population, up to 20% of recent peak ๐Ÿ”๏ธ

Case rate up 173% week-on-week or currently doubling every 4.8 days ๐Ÿ“ˆ

2/n
Latest test % positivity in Gauteng๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ for week ending 23 Apr = 20.2% ๐Ÿšฉ

Not surprising given fewer people testing, but increase is steep, up from 11.9% a week prior. With 1 in every 5 tests returning a positive result, it also indicates many more cases going undetected ๐Ÿง

3/n
Read 7 tweets
Dec 8, 2021
[Thread] An update of the #Omicron -driven #4thWave of #COVID19 in GAUTENG ๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ

First, a summary of current indicators:


1/n
Switching to log scale here to understand the exponential growth of #COVID19 cases in Gauteng ๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ



2/6
Early indications that #COVID19 cases in Gauteng may have passed an inflection point.

What is an inflection point:


3/6
Read 6 tweets
Oct 7, 2021
โ€œKnowledge is power, but it is much more powerful when it is shared.โ€

As part of @Wikimedia's @Wikipedia #WikipediaByUs campaign we celebrate access to knowledge.

Why is knowledge sharing important especially in a time of a pandemic? How can we counter misinformation? Thread ๐Ÿงต
Early on in the #COVID19 pandemic there was much fear, uncertainty, and misinformation. There still is!

As we gather more data, new research, more knowledge, our understanding improves and we can counter those uncertainties.

But that knowledge needs to be accessible too...
Numbers and statistics can be overwhelming, and so needs to also be shared in a way that's simple, clear and understandable

Just like a picture can tell a thousand words, graphs can put numbers and quantities into perspective, show trends, and tell a better story

#WikipediaByUs
Read 10 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(