🧵 On Sunday, the much-postponed 12th WTO Ministerial Conference #MC12 starts.
Here is another curtain-raiser, with @BobWolfeSPS
@wto Director-General @NOIweala believes it will be a success.
But what does “success” mean?
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“Many gaps remain but we are making progress,” @NOIweala told members on Tuesday Jun 7
“The success of this whole endeavour is in our hands. Let us deliver. The people outside are waiting for us and, believe it or not, I really think we will do it.”
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Fingers crossed, there might even be a deal on fisheries subsidies, she and the talks’ chair @WillsSantiago said.
But despite “cautious optimism” WTO spokesperson Dan Pruzin warned journalists to expect ministers to meet late into the night at #MC12
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“Success” is not the same for the organisers as for outsiders.
For the organisers, getting members to agree on anything is a “success”, including future work programmes and non-binding statements of intent.
For outsiders, “success” means decisions.
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Agriculture: “success” would be a stripped-down text to continue talking, and for all members to share the burden of adjustment as well as the benefits.
Perhaps there will be a decision on the @wfp’s exemption. And a declaration on food security
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On Monday, there were even signs of movement on waiving some intellectual property rights for COVID-19 and pandemics #TRIPSwaiver
This raised hopes after a fraught weekend that saw the US walk out of talks on the trade response to the pandemic.
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Activists attacked the intellectual property text as watered down, accused @NOIweala and chair @lagberie of siding with the #TRIPSwaiver’s opponents.
What they overlooked: consensus decisions = compromise. No compromise? No waiver.
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Our main take still stands. Real change in the WTO must come from capitals, not Geneva. Ministers meeting in Geneva at #MC12 might change attitudes in capitals. It might not.
On “WTO reform” members still talk past each other even on what it means.
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We offer benchmarks for judging the ministerial conference
• Are the obvious issues on the agenda? “Yes, but …”
• Do those issues produce results? We’ll see
• Was there sufficient progress? We’ll see
And we offer some scorecards for you to mark
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We have low expectations because the major players—US, EU, China, India—are not focusing attention on Geneva.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has also weakened multilateralism and jeopardised serious discussion on some topics in Geneva.
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But don’t blame “the WTO”. It’s about the members.
Given the present state of multilateralism, with the major players unwilling to engage in much coordinated action, a big @wto success at #MC12 would be a surprise.
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P.S. In case you’re interested, the blog homepage now features many of the issues on the Jun 12–15 Ministerial Conference #MC12 agenda
tradebetablog.wordpress.com
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