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Peter Ungphakorn (also @coppetainpu.bsky.social) Profile picture
@CoppetainPU
Jun 9, 2022 • 12 tweets • 9 min read • Read on X
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🧵 On Sunday, the much-postponed 12th WTO Ministerial Conference #MC12 starts.

Here is another curtain-raiser, with @BobWolfeSPS

@wto Director-General @NOIweala believes it will be a success.

But what does “success” mean?

1/11 tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2022/06/09/tou…
“Many gaps remain but we are making progress,” @NOIweala told members on Tuesday Jun 7

“The success of this whole endeavour is in our hands. Let us deliver. The people outside are waiting for us and, believe it or not, I really think we will do it.”

2/11 wto.org/english/news_e…
Fingers crossed, there might even be a deal on fisheries subsidies, she and the talks’ chair @WillsSantiago said.

But despite “cautious optimism” WTO spokesperson Dan Pruzin warned journalists to expect ministers to meet late into the night at #MC12

3/11 tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2022/06/09/tou…
“Success” is not the same for the organisers as for outsiders.

For the organisers, getting members to agree on anything is a “success”, including future work programmes and non-binding statements of intent.

For outsiders, “success” means decisions.

4/11 tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2022/06/09/tou…
Agriculture: “success” would be a stripped-down text to continue talking, and for all members to share the burden of adjustment as well as the benefits.

Perhaps there will be a decision on the @wfp’s exemption. And a declaration on food security

5/11 tradebetablog.wordpress.com/draft-minister…
On Monday, there were even signs of movement on waiving some intellectual property rights for COVID-19 and pandemics #TRIPSwaiver

This raised hopes after a fraught weekend that saw the US walk out of talks on the trade response to the pandemic.

6/11 tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2022/03/17/qua…
Activists attacked the intellectual property text as watered down, accused @NOIweala and chair @lagberie of siding with the #TRIPSwaiver’s opponents.

What they overlooked: consensus decisions = compromise. No compromise? No waiver.

7/11
Our main take still stands. Real change in the WTO must come from capitals, not Geneva. Ministers meeting in Geneva at #MC12 might change attitudes in capitals. It might not.

On “WTO reform” members still talk past each other even on what it means.

8/11 tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2022/06/09/tou…
We offer benchmarks for judging the ministerial conference

• Are the obvious issues on the agenda? “Yes, but …”
• Do those issues produce results? We’ll see
• Was there sufficient progress? We’ll see

And we offer some scorecards for you to mark

9/11 tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2022/06/09/tou…
We have low expectations because the major players—US, EU, China, India—are not focusing attention on Geneva.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has also weakened multilateralism and jeopardised serious discussion on some topics in Geneva.

10/11 tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2022/06/09/tou…
But don’t blame “the WTO”. It’s about the members.

Given the present state of multilateralism, with the major players unwilling to engage in much coordinated action, a big @wto success at #MC12 would be a surprise.

11/11 tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2022/06/09/tou…
P.S. In case you’re interested, the blog homepage now features many of the issues on the Jun 12–15 Ministerial Conference #MC12 agenda

tradebetablog.wordpress.com

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More from @CoppetainPU

Peter Ungphakorn (also @coppetainpu.bsky.social) Profile picture
May 29, 2022
Was it worth the time looking at the UK’s big deal with Indiana? The one the government hails as a “milestone” and the minister calls a “US trade deal”?

They wants us to take it seriously. So I did. Let’s say I did it so you don’t have to.

1/8 tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2022/05/29/mil…
TL:DR it's not a trade agreement.

It's a memorandum of understanding, a non-binding statement of intent.

The only trade barrier that might get tackled is govt procurement.

Indiana's state-level entities have no commitments on procurement in the WTO

2/8 tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2022/05/29/mil…
Indiana “will actively work towards” (not a commitment) treating UK suppliers the same as suppliers from other US states except those neighbouring Indiana.

“That’s the weirdest MFN clause I’ve ever seen,”—@Lorand_Bartels

3/8 tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2022/05/29/mil…
Read 10 tweets
Peter Ungphakorn (also @coppetainpu.bsky.social) Profile picture
May 27, 2022
“Agreement with Indiana marks milestone in UK’s trade with the US”—the UK government proclaims

Read on

It's a memorandum of understanding on what the UK and Indiana want to develop in their trade and economic relations. That stretches the meaning of “agreement” quite a lot

1/9
Good question⬇️. Short answer: no

So, all we know is what the UK government press release says.

2/9
This is what it says:

“The MoU creates a framework to remove barriers to trade and investment, paving the way for UK and Indianan businesses to invest, export, expand and create jobs.”

Remember: all major trade barriers are handled in Washington

3/9 gov.uk/government/new…
Read 10 tweets
Peter Ungphakorn (also @coppetainpu.bsky.social) Profile picture
May 22, 2022
It’s been clear for some time that WTO members are unlikely to agree on anything substantial on agriculture—despite declaring it a priority—when their ministers meet in Geneva Jun 12–15

Information from trade sources on a meeting last Thu May 19 reinforce that assessment🧵

1/11
The focus has changed in recent months—the Ukraine war has increased concerns about food security.

But the best binding decision that can be expected is to exempt the World Food Programme’s humanitarian purchases from export restrictions—still opposed by India & Tanzania.

2/11
Expect some non-binding/“best-endeavour” statement on food security, eg, the UK-led proposal⬇️, which draws on familiar themes of keeping supplies flowing, increasing transparency, minimising market disruption.

Even transparency is a problem…

3/11 docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/S…
Read 11 tweets
Peter Ungphakorn (also @coppetainpu.bsky.social) Profile picture
May 20, 2022
Another day, another WTO topic where members find themselves under pressure to reach agreement within days.

Today: fisheries subsidies, at the end of a “Fish Week” of talks in various formats on curbing harmful subsidies that encourage overfishing.

1/8 tradebetablog.wordpress.com/wto-fish-talks…
Chair @WillsSantiago briefed the media after a stock-taking meeting of the membership.

Sandwiched between plenaries Mon and Fri, were sessions in various formats. Wills said 30-40 delegations were involved in each of those sessions, total about 50.

2/8 tradebetablog.wordpress.com/wto-fish-talks…
@WillsSantiago said the talks were constructive with good signals that need to be turned into agreement.

He announced a “Fish Decision” week from May 30, giving members a fortnight to resolve their differences.

3/8 tradebetablog.wordpress.com/wto-fish-talks…
Read 8 tweets
Peter Ungphakorn (also @coppetainpu.bsky.social) Profile picture
May 19, 2022
WTO members on all sides were urged today to sort out their reservations over the proposed compromise, so that a deal on waiving some intellectual property protection for COVID-19 can be struck by the Jun 12-15 Ministerial Conference, trade sources say.

1/14 #TRIPSwaiver
In an informal meeting of the WTO intellectual property (TRIPS) council, Director-General @NOIweala said WTO members have no option but to produce a result for the #MC12 Ministerial Conference, even if that means negotiating round the clock, the sources said.

2/14
Today's meeting was held to take stock of the first two days of real negotiations on the compromise text⬇️, on Mon&Wed, May 16&18. During those sessions, @NOIweala urged delegates to be prepared to compromise: "the perfect is the enemy of the good"

3/14 tradebetablog.wordpress.com/text-g4-trips-…
Read 15 tweets
Peter Ungphakorn (also @coppetainpu.bsky.social) Profile picture
May 10, 2022
Today’s WTO General Council meeting largely reflected exchanges in the May 6 intellectual property (TRIPS) council, with a couple of points firmed up.

One, said WTO spokesman Keith Rockwell, is that most WTO members accepted the compromise as a text that can be negotiated.

1/6
TRIPS Council chair Amb. Lansana Gberie (Sierra Leone) said: "It is the only product that we have. It’s the only game in town.” No one disagreed according to Rockwell.

So for the first time members will negotiate a text, and it will be this one.

2/6 tradebetablog.wordpress.com/text-g4-trips-…
WTO members still have a range of reservations about the text—on adding diagnostics and therapeutics, concerns that existing flexibilities in WTO rules should not be compromised, and more🧵⬇️

Most said their capitals were still considering the text.

3/6
Read 7 tweets

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