Thread by @ClaireMusk

🧵 On Battery Investor Day, Elon Musk Promised #Tesla Will Make 100 GWh of Batteries in 2022
$TSLA stock shot up 3x since then.
Musk lied. It was another stock pump. Here's why.
#Vaporware $TSLAQ 1/16

Musk's specific promise was that #Tesla's internal production of cells - in addition to what $TSLA buys from @Panasonic and others - will be 100 GWh this year.
He said that the 100 GWh will come from his new, 100% integrated Texas factory.
Except it's physically impossible. 2/16

Let's first start down memory lane, and see how #Tesla influencers pumped Musk's Nevada JV with @Panasonic back in 2016.
The promise 6 years ago was a massive expansion to 150 GWh.
But the Nevada JV has been stuck at 35 GWh/yr instead. 3/16

Tesla's own website says that the Nevada JV has a "footprint of 1.9 M sqft". A Google Maps measurement supports this claim. This is where #Tesla is buying 35 GWh/yr of battery cells from @Panasonic. 4/16

Here are the dimensions of #Tesla's Texas factory, based on its factory "opening" hype event from a couple of months ago (nevermind it's just making pre-production cars right now). As above, measurements bear a very close approximation in Google Maps. 5/16

Now we get into the nitty-gritty. Here's #Tesla's slide on the layout of its new Texas factory. I've measured the area dedicated to the same operations as the Nevada JV (cell, battery pack, drive unit), which comes out to ~782,848.5 sqft - LESS than the Nevada JV. 6/16

Does volume matter? #Tesla's Texas factory is slightly taller than the Nevada JV, but not by much. This is because the Texas factory's roof has to also accommodate the tallest auto assembly equipment... 7/16

...In fact, based on Tesla's own numbers about the actual amount of space dedicated to operations vs. the footprints of the 2 factories, #Tesla's Nevada JV actually has a better ops/footprint ratio than the Texas factory. So height is irrelevant. 8/16

What about the "Future Production" area ? #Tesla's Texas factory currently dedicates ~1.57 M sqft to the Model Y. Musk's promised to make its pickup truck there too, which needs to be squeezed into the ~1.34 M sqft for "Future Production" - not for making more batteries. 9/16

Igoring the unfavorable ops/footprint ratio, assume that #Tesla's Texas factory will be just as efficient as its Nevada/@Panasonic JV + be at 100% capacity in 2022.
Tesla can only make ~15 GWh/yr in-house.
Even if we 2x production efficiency, it's only ~30 GWh/yr. 10/16

"What about Kato Rd.?"
What about it?
It's not even at 1 GWh/yr.
It's a joke.
Part of a long-standing stock pump, used by Sawyer Merritt, Omar Qazi, Galileo Russell, Warren Redlich, Gary Black, and others to inflate $TSLA's stock price. 11/16

TLDR: #Tesla can only produce a max of 15-30 GWh/yr at its Texas factory, and 1 GWh/yr at its Kato Rd. facility this year.
Elon Musk lied about the 100 GWh/yr in-house production in 2022.
Musk & $TSLA influencers pumped the stock to high heaven based on this and other lies. 12/16

P.S. Elon Musk also lied on Battery Day about the #Tesla Model S "Plaid".
Its range isn't 520 mi (396 mi est), its top speed isn't 200+ mph (162 mph), it doesn't use the new 4680 cells (18650 cells from @Panasonic) and its 0-60 time isn't <2 seconds. 13/16
motortrend.com/reviews/2022-t…

P.P.S. Elon Musk also lied on Battery Day about the $25k #Tesla "Model Fluffy Pillow". (h/t @passthebeano)
It doesn't exist. It's fantasy. It's #vaporware. It's Theranos-level bullshit. It's another $TSLA stonk pump.
Don't expect Sawyer Merritt or Gary Black to apologize. 14/16

P.P.P.S. Elon Musk also lied on Battery Day about #Tesla mining lithium with table salt.
Tesla's not actually mining lithium at all, nevermind with table salt.
And has anyone verified where Tesla's "SECURED TWH-SCALE RESOURCE" is located?
Lies within lies within lies. 15/16

The end game, of course, is that Elon Musk sold billions in $TSLA stock, knowing full well that Battery Day was a LIE, and there is NO WAY #Tesla will make 100 GWh of in-house batteries in 2022. It's 100% securities fraud.
Elon Musk and his enablers all deserve prison. 16/16

*I left out attaching the calculation for exactly how I reached the 15/30 GWh numbers for tweet 10/16. Here it is.
17/16