Thread by @fewseethis

free alpha: how to buy the #bitcoin bottom?

you're typically told that trying to buy bottoms is the best way to lose all your money. but is it true?

let's find out: 🧵

1/ i'm going to walk you through the simple process of buying the bottom, or near the bottom.

remember: simplicity = wisdom. not the other way around. and this method is really simple: you buy high time frame support, or reclaim of htf support.

2/ and you sell when htf support is broken. you can even short if a retest is given.

by doing so *consistently* you may very well be buying THE bottom (or near) when it eventually occurs and in the meantime, you're definitely buying near local bottoms.

what does that look like?

3/ the key is to determine htf support. luckily it's really simple. what's not so easy is to stick to the method and be disciplined when the emotions kick in.

ok, start with the naked #bitcoin quarterly chart.

4/ on the quarterly chart, mark the recent swing highs and swing lows like so

5/ switch to the monthly chart and add the yearly levels. some of the swing levels will naturally overlap with yearly levels.

6/ now we switch to the weekly chart and we'll start from where the htf quarterly support level was broken back in november.

a clean weekly close below = you get out of #bitcoins

following week gave a nice retest = you short

7/ your target at that point is the next htf support which is the quarterly swing low & your invalidation is a 1w close above the lost quarterly level at $58k

not only you preserved your profits but you got a 40% move on your short = you can now reload more than twice your #btc

8/ and so on and so forth. see notes on chart.

you're up more than 20% on your recent buys when you close after a 1w close below the '22 yearly open.

you get out and reload at the '21 open - more than 30% below your last sell.

9/ same deal: you buy and your invalidation is a 1w clean close below htf support. in this case your invalidation is hit and you take your 1st loss of roughly 8%.

your wins are big and your loss is tiny in comparison.

10/ note that so far i'm not even zooming in on daily or lower time frames for better entries/exits. keeping it as simple as it gets.

another thing to note is that with this method, you'll eventually buy THE bottom (or near) instead of being stuck in a bear mindset.

11/ and that bottom buy (or near bottom) will translate in an enormous win. we are talking about #bitcoin not something to be bearish about on very high time frames

this simple method IF applied consistently (you HAVE to try at EVERY htf support level) will yield amazing profits

12/ now of course it is *possible* that #bitcoin bottoms without hitting your next htf. this is why this strategy includes buying htf level reclaims as well.

13/ using this simple method, it will prove a worthwhile pursuit to attempt to buy bottoms time and again

now imagine what we can do if we zoom in a bit on lower time frames at juncture points + use other data points for confluence

the key is consistency: you have to try.

/end