Thread by @Jmergz1985

Getting a big bounce out of $Euro here right after hitting parity, thus putting a pause on the $DXY rally for now.

A backtest of the major support it broke in the 105 area seems logical & about the area where RSI would hit 60, which it has failed at on every rally for 1 yr now/

$Copper bouncing off 50% Fib retrace ('08 low to '22 high) ~ 3.15. Down 38% now just since March & RSI has been <30 for 1 month.

Seems about time for a pause here. If Dr. Copper is pausing it's collapse w/Euro & DXY paring off, feels like time for "risk on" bear market rally/

Makes sense, as we're seeing $SPX break out above this downtrend line here. Too many bears becoming complacent. RSI has failed at 60 on every rally since Dec (typical of bear markets). Currently at 55, I'd watch that level for another failure & initial resistance ~4100)/

#gold & #silver needed 1 more drop I guess but holding near major support (I'd rather be early than late). Very oversold & overextended, so looking for a bounce.

Question is, is "risk on" good for PMs, or do we get that nice bonus where gold bugs get hit from both angles?/

Same w/ $GDX & $GDXJ, holding at major support w/ GDXJ badly underperforming. Only times GDXJ was ever lower- 1 yr leading to 2016 low, 4 months into 2018 low & 2 weeks in the 2020 low.

Silver lining, Jrs are starting to outperform a bit here. Of the 3, $SILJ up most since low/

$GDXJ/ $GDX ratio, Jrs making up a bit for underperformance, outperforming majors by 5% last 2 wks.

Jrs have underperformed majors for 18 mos & RSI on the GDXJ/GDX ratio has failed at 60 every time w/ 2 exceptions, for 1 month Oct-Nov 2021 & 1 wk June 2022.

LT chart, near ATL.