For those not clear/new follows: I made the 2013 analogy in terms of PA in $GDX 1st alchemyfinancials.blogspot.com/2021/06/gold-a…
& . We sold producers & only held royalty & JRs. Since, $GDX dropped 40%, so it was the right call.

We've been hedging ever since. Here's specifics/ Reason for royalty $FNV, $RGLD, $WPM its performed significantly better than producers & are immune to many of their problems. Only producer we hold is $NEM.

JRs because lightening strikes anytime. If you had 20 jr's & 19 are -50% last 2 yrs but 1 was snowline, you're breakeven/

Continues to blow my mind how ST people are. #gold now very overbought/extended while up 1.5% w/#silver & $GDX down 7% last 6 wks.

Puts far from getting "crushed" despite this move. Not seeing any reason to exit or go long, based on my time horizon.

And #FOMC next wk. Patience/ Meantime, I'll let the gold bugs gloat at my expense. Lord knows they don't get to do it often. Have a few days of fun amidst last 2yrs of losses.

Some context, $GDX/ $GLD couldn't make a close above where it was just 2 days ago. 1 day is not a trend, zoom out & look at the avg/

Going to outline EXACTLY what we're doing, why & some details on the models, their signals & how I interpret them here.

A bit of a free preview of what we're going to be doing on the Patreon.com/alchemyfinanci… site & discord chat when it officially launches (now likely February)/ 1st, buying 1/3 position in $GDX Mar 28 puts here ~1.60. 3mos is enough time. 1/3 position cause might be dull 4 a bit. Gives time to buy another 1/3 if signals strengthen w/minimal risk if we're wrong. May get stuck with only 2/3 position if GDX tanks fast, but that's ok/

Getting a big bounce out of $Euro here right after hitting parity, thus putting a pause on the $DXY rally for now.

A backtest of the major support it broke in the 105 area seems logical & about the area where RSI would hit 60, which it has failed at on every rally for 1 yr now/

https://twitter.com/Jmergz1985/status/1547241328576167937

$Copper bouncing off 50% Fib retrace ('08 low to '22 high) ~ 3.15. Down 38% now just since March & RSI has been <30 for 1 month.

Seems about time for a pause here. If Dr. Copper is pausing it's collapse w/Euro & DXY paring off, feels like time for "risk on" bear market rally/

Gap fill on $GDXJ & $SILJ last week, but no such luck with $GDX. Stopped dead at the gap now may be rolling over. (Upside, GDX held lows while GDXJ & SILJ broke them & recovered)

There are a few things concerning me here with miners that seem a bit reminiscent of last summer/ $Euro has been a perfect example recently of something I've illustrated before in articles. Bull markets, RSI>40, MACD above 0. Bear markets RSI<60 MACD<0. Euro has been declining for a whole yr now. RSI never printed above 60, MACD has stayed below 0 line the whole time/

I have some friends coming to visit so I have a lot to do today. Im not panicking over rising #rates.

Here's why. Some charts of what happened to #gold miners during the biggest rate rise in the last 50yrs.

Banner Resources. 34c in 1978 to $16 in 1980. A 4,600% gain in 2 yrs. Carolin Mines. From a low of 2.20 in 1978, to a high of 56.5 in 1980. This occured while 10 yr rates nearly doubled from 7% to 13% in the same time frame.