🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮 💰
1/7 🧵
Global Macro Review 08/28/2022
What a difference a week and an 8-minute JH speech make.
Trend indicators green into #OPEX, only to have JPOW reiterate, "Our responsibility to deliver price stability is unconditional.”
Let’s dig into the 🧮!
2/7
Having retraced 50-60% off their lows, US equities ↘️ hard on Powell’s speech
$SPX -4.05% (w) -2.4% (T)
$COMP -4.45% (w) +0.1% (T)
$IWM -2.9% (w) 0.7% (T)
Chart: $COMPQ failed to retrace 50% before ↘️
2a/7
Equity vol ↗️ and firmly in the 🪓🪣
$VIX 25.56 +4.96 pts
$VXN 31.72 +4.98 pts
$RVX 30.48 +5.14 pts
$VSTOXX +2.08 pts
$VXEEM 21.28 +1.85 pts
Chart: $VIX back > 25
2b/7
Energy +4.25% bucked the Trend, as Tech and Discretionary led ↘️
$XLK -5.55% (w) -1.1% (T)
$XLY -4.7% (w) +3.85% (T)
$XLC -4.4% (w) -8.4% (T)
Chart: $XLC - home to meta and alphabet never really bounced 🐻
2c/7
Dispersion in internat’l equities
Asia ↔️ Europe ↘️
$CAC -3.4% (w) -3.7% (T)
$DAX -4.25% (w) -10.3% (T)
$HSI +2.0% (w) -2.55% (T)
$KOSPI -0.45% (w) -5.95% (T)
$NIKK -1.0% (w) +6.95% (T)
$SSEC -1.0% (w) +3.05% (T)
Chart: $NIKK ♉️ but very overbought
2d/7
Some green spots among Country EFTs
$FXI +5.2% (w) -0.8% (T)
$EWZ +2.7% (w) -10.4% (T)
But otherwise, #fugly
$EWG -5.9% (w) -20.95% (T)
$EWQ -4.85% (w) -13.25% (T)
Chart: $EWG - last week's quote “Short with impunity”
3/7
While equities were under pressure, commodities showed signs of life ↗️ - and that is troubling with a 🦅 Fed
Chart: $CRB +3.1% (w) -6.7% (T)
3a/7
Industrial metals ↗️ precious metals ↘️
$COPPER +1.1% (w) -14.15% (T)
$GOLD -0.75% (w) -5.8% (T)
$SILVER -1.65% (w) -15.15% (T)
Chart: $DBB +2.2% (w) -12.25% (T)
3b/7
Hydrocarbons ↔️ with 🛢↗️
$BRENT +3.55% (w) -13.2% (T)
$WTIC +2.9% (w) -19.15% (T)
$NATGAS -0.75% (w) +6.2% (T)
$GASO -3.95% (w) -31.45% (T)
Chart: $WTIC bouncing off low end of the range …
3c/7
… as oil vol continues to be contained.
Chart: $OVX
3d/7
Grains ripped ↗️ this week
$CORN +6.6% (w) -14.55% (T)
$SOYB +4.1% (w) -15.65% (T)
$SUGAR +2.2% (w) -5.6% (T)
$WHEAT +4.45% (w) -30.45% (T)
Chart: $DBA +3.3% (w) -7.4% (T) has retraced 38% of its ↘️ move
3e/7
$COFFEE +11.1% (w) +5.75% (T) ♨️
Overbought but ♉️
4/7
Let’s not forget #Cryptocurrencies
$BTC -7.0% (w) -34.8% (T)
$ETH -7.85% (w) -25.4% (T)
Chart: $BTCUSD on the precipice 😳
5/7
UST yields ↗️ and ♉️ across the curve
10/2s to -35.2 BPS 🔻
MOVE 122.95 -86 BPS 🛗
Chart: $TNX +1.55% (w) +10.75% (T) as the range tightens
5a/7
Chart: $DET10Y 🚀
5b/7
Bond ETFs ↔️ on the week but 🐻 (T)
$BND -0.4% (w) -2.5% (T)
$HYG -1.5% (w) -5.5% (T)
$IEF -0.5% (w) -2.35% (T)
$LQD -0.45% (w) -3.65% (T)
$TIP +0.1% (w) -3.6% (T)
$TLT +0.5% (w) -4.6% (T)
Chart: $TLT bouncing off low end of the range
6/7
The wrecking 🎳 known as the $USD to a new cycle high
$UUP +0.7% (w) +7.25% (T)
$FXA +0.15% (w) -3.8% (T)
$FXC -0.35% (w) -2.4% (T)
$FXY -0.45% (w) -7.7% (T)
$FXB -0.75% (w) -7.05% (T)
$FXE -0.8% (w) -7.5% (T)
$FXF -0.9% (w) -1.2% (T)
Chart: $USD +13.77% YTD ♉️
6a/7
$CNYUSD crashing ↘️ as the PBOC 🇨🇳 loosens monetary policy into Fed tightening
7/7
With the Fed committed to demand destruction and bringing "pain to households and businesses,” do you really think equities will be spared?
"A 🤡 and his 💰 are soon parted."
Pity the 🤡 and have a super profitable 💰 week!
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮 💰
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