Thread by @BDavisBriz

Looking forward to what should be a timely and informative briefing on what is likely to be at the top of Liz Truss' in-tray and how her Premiership may respond to the challenges #IfGNewPM

First, @Emma_Norris opens the debate by setting out the range of challenges facing the Truss Government - Brexit, the energy crisis & energy bills, as well as political intrigues in her own party #IfGNewPM

Next @DrHannahWhite opens looking at Truss' leadership campaign. Says Truss' emphasis on "delivery" chimes with an electorate that "wants to move beyond soundbytes and towards action" #IfGNewPM

However, White says that Truss will now need to prioritise on the (many) commitments she made during the leadership campaign - striking a balance between what appeals to the Tory "selectorate" & what the British public expect & need #IfGNewPM

White also predicts a move away from the "cakeism" of the Johnson era. Predicts that her Cabinet choices will be revealing - will it be Ministers who are able to deliver? And how will she balance "youth & vitality" vs "knowledge & experience" #IfGNewPM

On the Civil Service, White welcomes Truss' "questioning nature" but also warns against dismissing civil servants completely is unwise - as they are often providing evidence & experiences needed to deliver #IfGNewPM

Similarly, White expresses concerns over reports Truss plans to "strip back" Number 10, as similarly it contains a lot of useful institutional memory, as well as analysts, who will be able to provide evidence to inform sound policymaking #IfGNewPM

Next, @gemmatetlow highlights how Truss "will inherit the worst economic forecasts since Margaret Thatcher", and so Truss' early premiership is likely to be dominated by energy prices & the knock-on economic slowdown #IfGNewPM

Tetlow also notes that this recession will differ from previous recessions, noting for example that 2008 was due to a deflation in consumer demand. 2022 recession is due to supply-side issues. This will require different responses to solve the problems #IfGNewPM

Tetlow says that Truss' emphasis on "small-state, low-tax" vision has generally be consistent across the campaign. Questions how this may align with increased defence funding & state intervention on energy prices #IfGNewPM

While Truss' commitment to high growth "would make the fiscal arithmetic much easier", Tetlow says that growth may not be as easy to achieve as Truss painted it on the campaign trail #IfGNewPM

On energy, Tetlow also highlights a tension between Truss' plan to cap energy cots versus her suggestion of "Nanny State" actions encouraging people to reduce their energy consumption, which will be needed to reduce demand #IfGNewPM

Turning to public services, @NJ_Davies argues that #Coronavirus and inflation have meant that the recent financial settlement, "which at the time was very generous" is unlikely to be sufficient to meet current challenges #IfGNewPM

In particular, heightened infection control measures and increased cost of living will continue to be a strain on public services, with Davies suggesting only the #Police will have sufficient funding to return to pre-pandemic services #IfGNewPM

Davies also notes that backlogs (in NHS & courts) and unmet needs (eg Schools) are also contributing to pressures being faced by public services #IfGNewPM

This, Davies argues, is exacerbated by staffing shortages and below-inflationary salary increases #IfGNewPM

Finally, Davies argues that there is a problem with chronic underperformance. All public services are performing at below pre-pandemic levels &, even then, all are worse than 2010 levels due to lack of investment #IfGNewPM

Next, @AlexGAThomas talks about civil service reform. Suggests that there will be a No 10 reorganisation, with legislation/policy/data teams being moved from Downing Street to the Cabinet Office #IfGNewPM

This, Thomas argues, would suggest Truss view Downing Street as being "about order", communicating policies to the PM and PM broadcasting to wider cabinet, rather than its more "chaotic" functioning under her predecessors #IfGNewPM

On Civil Service, Thomas predicts a "two phase" approach to civil service reform - with the first 100 days focusing on addressing the challenges of energy crisis, with tweaks being made after that #IfGNewPM

On wider reform, Thomas welcomes proposals that would "improve the efficiency & increase the skillsets" of civil servants, but calls on the PM to drop the "superficial cultural attacks" on the civil service, especially on neutrality #IfGNewPM

Thomas also says that appointments of Duchy of Lancaster and Cabinet Office Secretary will also be a clear signifier of how Truss plans to negotiate with the civil service #IfGNewPM

Finally, on Brexit & the NI Protocol, Thomas says that the deadline for formation of Stormont Govt is looming, so her response will be telling of her view on UK's relationship with EU #IfGNewPM

Thomas also warns that her review of removing all EU legislation will be "a huge distraction" for the civil service, so calls on Truss to prioritise her "battles" with the EU #IfGNewPM

Turning to Johnson's Standards Committee investigation, @timd_IFG notes that Johnson's behaviour did not loom large in the leadership debates & both Truss & Sunak were keen to show loyalty to Johnson during the debates #IfGNewPM

However, Durrant says that Truss will need to respond to Johnson's committee inquiry results. Truss will also be responsible for appointing a new Ethics Advisor. #IfGNewPM

Truss repeatedly said "the buck stops with the PM" on ethics, so it will be interesting to see how she will respond to ministerial misdemeanours as & when they occur #IfGNewPM

Durrant notes that Truss' Cabinet was leaked over the weekend, and key Ministers (Chancellor & BEIS) have already been proactively engaging with media & sectors so this is a govt that should "hit the ground running" #IfGNewPM

On the political mix, Durrant says that it will be interesting to see how Truss manages the divisions within her party - for example, will Sunak supporters be in the Cabinet & how will she link in with backbenchers #IfGNewPM

With "Big Beasts" such as Johnson, Patel, etc. returning to the backbenches, Durrant notes that Johnson "will not go quietly" - believes that Johnson will not remain a backbench MP for long, perhaps leaving the Commons after a year #IfGNewPM

Durrant also believes that, while she has already issued her congratulations, May may still have "the odd pointed question" for the Truss Govt, particularly on Northern Ireland. It is also unsure how other former Ministers will behave on the backbenches #IfGNewPM

White agrees - says that Truss has campaigned on the basis of March OBR analysis, "which now feels very outdated". With Truss indicating she will not ask for a new analysis before making proposals, this may lead to difficult decisions being made #IfGNewPM

The webinar now moves on to a Q&A session #IfGNewPM

On how Truss can build a better relationship with civil service than Johnson, Thomas says that Truss will be "a more ideological PM" than Johnson, which could help the civil service overcoming policy tensions between Depts & develop a clear project of work #IfGNewPM

On immediate actions Truss could take to improve public services, Davies argues a "quick win" to reduce NHS pressures in the winter would include a mass vaccine rollout for Covid & Flu would relieve demand on A&E over winter #IfGNewPM

However, Davies says that Truss' longer-term plans for reforming public services will also require significant investment in IT, buildings and training #IfGNewPM

With a Q on how new PM and HoL deal with current legislative programme, White says Truss has signalled she is committed to delivering on existing Tory manifesto, so things will proceed. However, believes Truss will reprioritise Bills proposed in the last Queen's Speech #IfGNewPM

To this end, White says who is appointed to different Ministerial posts will give a hint as to how she is prioritising different Bills (eg DCMS Ministers and Online Harms Bill) #IfGNewPM

On Truss' plans to cut back on public sector, Davies says there is "no easy answer" as many of the public sector workforce (eg childcare, NHS) has grown due to growth in demand or areas that are important to policymakers (eg prison wardens) #IfGNewPM

Thomas says there will instead be a repositioning of public expenditure on the state. Gives the example of Truss' prioritising Defence spending - predicts some totemic cuts, which will lead to "a squeeze not a reduction" #IfGNewPM

On a Q on Treasury Select Committee's request to OBR for analysis on Govt proposals, Tetlow says that Committee is right to ask for that. Is surprised Truss has not asked for a revised proposal as OBR required to produce 2 reports a year, so will need info eventually #IfGNewPM

On whether or not there will be an early GE, Durrant reflects on May's experience, which was due to a big bounce in polls. Notes that Truss not expected to experience a similar boost in support, so unlikely to be tempted to trigger an early ballot #IfGNewPM

Durrant also notes that Truss has a large majority (unlike May who inherited a small majority), and has repeatedly highlighted 2024 as a deadline date. With such a large in-tray, Thomas & Durrant think little to be gained politically from a snap poll #IfGNewPM

On #LevellingUp under a Truss Govt, Tetlow believes the policy will be "played down" under a Truss administration, whose focus seems to be more on "growing the economic pie" rather than redistribution of funding #IfGNewPM

However, Davies notes that people will notice reductions in the quality of their local public services. In particular, health & education have always been "hot topics" at the polls, and predicts it will be the same in 2024 #IfGNewPM

Thomas also predicts that focus on the "Red Wall" will decrease under a Truss Govt, with Truss saying she wants to raise the standing of the Tory Party across the country, rather than "segmenting" it across locations #IfGNewPM

On how a Truss Govt's relationship with business will differ from Johnson's, Tetlow says her energy bill proposals will require very close working with businesses, so believes there will be a greater focus on working with businesses in order to deliver #IfGNewPM

On Climate Change & #NetZero, Thomas acknowledges it was "largely absent" from the leadership campaigns. Giving energy as an example, says current energy efficiency campaigns should be key part of intergenerational efforts to decarbonise energy grid #IfGNewPM

Final Q on 1 thing panel would like to see from a Truss Govt to show it is serious about effective Govt:
Durrant - Higher ministerial standards
White - Don't "needlessly junk stuff that works"
Thomas - Engage with the civil service to show confidence in your convictions
#IfGNewPM

Tetlow - Thinking about longer-term solutions to reduce energy dependency/increase energy efficiency & implement evidence-based (not ideology-based) policies
Davies - Be open and transparent about public sector workforce plans in order to deliver on policy priorities
#IfGNewPM

Very informative panel on what will be in Truss' in-tray and how we can expect her Govt to respond. Thanks to @DrHannahWhite @gemmatetlow @AlexGAThomas @NJ_Davies & @timd_IFG for your insights, to @Emma_Norris for chairing & @instituteforgov/@ifgevents for hosting! #IfGNewPM

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