Thread by @HeliosRunner

1/ Quick & dirty thread about reported (alleged) Russian losses - for People with no mil background - you might not have noticed it, but this is really heavy right now! they are fully going at each other throats there in #Kherson Oblast. Every single day there is the equivalent

2/ of an entire full BTG (MBT) that is send to oblivion! more certainly equivalent of 2 half cripple ones every day) this is quite huge! and this is happening for the last 6 days!
By the end of the week (10 days max) a huge turning point might occur. let's hope Ukr is not

3/ impacted as much (not in terms of MBT of course, because they are not "engaging" that way as much as Ru do), because it could lead to another "stop" for a couple months then.
if we take the losses registered in sept 3 it was even more "crazy" :

4/ but i've seen people asking how these numbers are possible?
well i've explained for the Ru "casualties" reported and i've made a mini thread about it and long story short, this is the only point you can said 2/3 are certainly confirmed. for the rest of destroyed Ru materials

5/ it is much more easier to "count".
because of Drones and sat imagery (GEOINT) analysis.
Also for the materials, no one explained this last couple of days, so let me try to explain : it is not that Ukr are rushing with MBTs ro IFVs and going through Ru lines of defenses..

6/ like crazy apaches..
but it's more about expanding limits and waiting for Ru to come in and then smoking them while incoming (for one part) like in the "estimate graph" below..
so suddenly Russian are asked to go and fully crush Uk so sending lots of tanks and APCs/IFVs etc.

7/ so Ukr are waiting for them with Javelins/manpads/Nlaws (everything you can imagine) plus support of arty with pre-registered positions to shell, & CAS (quite new): Then Ukr are pushing again and again (hence lots of casualties now in both sides to be fair). but that's only

8/ one part of the explanation of such Ru losses. because for months now Ukr intel helped with all western other intel agencies (helped w partisans & deeply inserted SOF) are gathering all the infos they need in order to cripple and hit AT THE SAME TIME, all the most important

9/ critical warehouses, ammo dump, depots, roads etc, in order to directly "stiff" the reaction of Russians for a part, & impeach (block) them for a quick response of support where the action is "hot". So when you see these kind of sat image of Russ waiting for Ukr it's laughable

10/ because we are no more in the 70's, it is absolutely useless to have such line of "defense" right now, with all direct intel, you should move every day of your position and change patterns of modification and ratio of véhicules & troops around etc.
Because now... it's going

11/ to be a "ball trap" party!
Ukr hide quite well the fact that they could suddenly unleash all that support on such "defensive" groups (or line of defense in trees) but all you got to have nowadays in order for an M777 (or equivalent) to strike half of this in couple hours is

12/ some accurate GPS loc data and some M982 Excalibur artillery type of projectile. and actually ukr have their own production of such ammunition (Chuck actually was the one to tell me about this!) so for 70grand you can smoke a T-72 for example.

root-nation.com/en/articles-en…

13/ for reference (Kvitnik) & other systems:
ukroboronprom.com.ua/en/product/kvi…

eurasiantimes.com/new-ammo-for-u…
and actually even Germany has announced they will send some of their own Vulcan :
thedefensepost.com/2022/08/23/ger…

14/ So in a week we have witnessed an amazing destruction of Russians forces, and support in the #kherson area. this battle is epic even if right now we have few info (rightfully so) because it could be ONE OF the most important battle of this war. To put it in perspective :

15/ if France, England or Russia would lose this amount of really meaningful ground (army) material.. in 3 weeks their army would be gone.
even for Russia its going to be huge as right now as i showed once, they have they equivalent of 10 MBTs for 10km in the front line. so when

16/ you lose 100 per week, in an area you CANT replace them (they will get smoked trying to cross the #Dniepr on Dinghys...) maybe a couple per day.. so it'll leave only Ru manpower (lol) to defend the entire area quite soon. this is not sustainable for Russian to hide or attack

17/ past a certain point.
the only question is will they destroy Ukr forces enough to stop them and send huge manpower reinforcement to go deep into tranches in order to block Ukr advance long enough to break this moving wave...
but Russians also have a bigger problem now

18/ we r laughing about it, but if you don't give the men enough food, u can go on for 2 or 3 weeks, but past that point, (si l'intendance ne suit pas..) a lots of troop might just want to surrender or undress & leave their units, w civilians help there..

19/ also some dumb are claiming "yeah but Ru arty !!!"
yeah useless bro when your canon (fût) are roasted because you shell like crazy mofo the trees & dust, and when the stock is over, what's going to happen? Russian ammo have learned to swim to cross the Dniepro by itself?

20/ so at the end of the day, yeah it's hard for both, but the Russian stock of materials/ life expectancy/ is melting like an ice cream under the sun of July in the Sahara...
et pr mes potos fra : les zozo's sont dans le pétrin! ;-)
End. (for now)

21/
in N° 15/ "if France, England or Russia" i meant Germany instead of Russia of course....
thanks for eagle eyes of readers !!

22/ yeah so for people asking (someone send me this near #kherson near #Chornobaivka ?? -see infra). or like Chuck shows it in is precious work (below) it will end up when necessary, exactly the same way. they'll get smoke. Ukr are not in "rush" to gain these places... Ukr will

23/ destroy them from afar, then "come in" draw back... pull them in pre determined best defensive lines from where they will "javelin" their asses.. and then move forward when really they'll assess it is "safe" enough to go forward.
this airport is nothing to "hurry/rush" for..

24/ for the ones who have missed my little thread about the assessment of casualties..