J. like JJ 🇫🇷 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Sep 6, 2022 24 tweets 10 min read Read on X
1/ Quick & dirty thread about reported (alleged) Russian losses - for People with no mil background - you might not have noticed it, but this is really heavy right now! they are fully going at each other throats there in #Kherson Oblast. Every single day there is the equivalent
2/ of an entire full BTG (MBT) that is send to oblivion! more certainly equivalent of 2 half cripple ones every day) this is quite huge! and this is happening for the last 6 days!
By the end of the week (10 days max) a huge turning point might occur. let's hope Ukr is not
3/ impacted as much (not in terms of MBT of course, because they are not "engaging" that way as much as Ru do), because it could lead to another "stop" for a couple months then.
if we take the losses registered in sept 3 it was even more "crazy" :
4/ but i've seen people asking how these numbers are possible?
well i've explained for the Ru "casualties" reported and i've made a mini thread about it and long story short, this is the only point you can said 2/3 are certainly confirmed. for the rest of destroyed Ru materials
5/ it is much more easier to "count".
because of Drones and sat imagery (GEOINT) analysis.
Also for the materials, no one explained this last couple of days, so let me try to explain : it is not that Ukr are rushing with MBTs ro IFVs and going through Ru lines of defenses..
6/ like crazy apaches..
but it's more about expanding limits and waiting for Ru to come in and then smoking them while incoming (for one part) like in the "estimate graph" below..
so suddenly Russian are asked to go and fully crush Uk so sending lots of tanks and APCs/IFVs etc.
7/ so Ukr are waiting for them with Javelins/manpads/Nlaws (everything you can imagine) plus support of arty with pre-registered positions to shell, & CAS (quite new): Then Ukr are pushing again and again (hence lots of casualties now in both sides to be fair). but that's only
8/ one part of the explanation of such Ru losses. because for months now Ukr intel helped with all western other intel agencies (helped w partisans & deeply inserted SOF) are gathering all the infos they need in order to cripple and hit AT THE SAME TIME, all the most important
9/ critical warehouses, ammo dump, depots, roads etc, in order to directly "stiff" the reaction of Russians for a part, & impeach (block) them for a quick response of support where the action is "hot". So when you see these kind of sat image of Russ waiting for Ukr it's laughable
10/ because we are no more in the 70's, it is absolutely useless to have such line of "defense" right now, with all direct intel, you should move every day of your position and change patterns of modification and ratio of véhicules & troops around etc.
Because now... it's going
11/ to be a "ball trap" party!
Ukr hide quite well the fact that they could suddenly unleash all that support on such "defensive" groups (or line of defense in trees) but all you got to have nowadays in order for an M777 (or equivalent) to strike half of this in couple hours is
12/ some accurate GPS loc data and some M982 Excalibur artillery type of projectile. and actually ukr have their own production of such ammunition (Chuck actually was the one to tell me about this!) so for 70grand you can smoke a T-72 for example.

root-nation.com/en/articles-en…
13/ for reference (Kvitnik) & other systems:
ukroboronprom.com.ua/en/product/kvi…

eurasiantimes.com/new-ammo-for-u…
and actually even Germany has announced they will send some of their own Vulcan :
thedefensepost.com/2022/08/23/ger…
14/ So in a week we have witnessed an amazing destruction of Russians forces, and support in the #kherson area. this battle is epic even if right now we have few info (rightfully so) because it could be ONE OF the most important battle of this war. To put it in perspective :
15/ if France, England or Russia would lose this amount of really meaningful ground (army) material.. in 3 weeks their army would be gone.
even for Russia its going to be huge as right now as i showed once, they have they equivalent of 10 MBTs for 10km in the front line. so when
16/ you lose 100 per week, in an area you CANT replace them (they will get smoked trying to cross the #Dniepr on Dinghys...) maybe a couple per day.. so it'll leave only Ru manpower (lol) to defend the entire area quite soon. this is not sustainable for Russian to hide or attack
17/ past a certain point.
the only question is will they destroy Ukr forces enough to stop them and send huge manpower reinforcement to go deep into tranches in order to block Ukr advance long enough to break this moving wave...
but Russians also have a bigger problem now
18/ we r laughing about it, but if you don't give the men enough food, u can go on for 2 or 3 weeks, but past that point, (si l'intendance ne suit pas..) a lots of troop might just want to surrender or undress & leave their units, w civilians help there..
19/ also some dumb are claiming "yeah but Ru arty !!!"
yeah useless bro when your canon (fût) are roasted because you shell like crazy mofo the trees & dust, and when the stock is over, what's going to happen? Russian ammo have learned to swim to cross the Dniepro by itself?
20/ so at the end of the day, yeah it's hard for both, but the Russian stock of materials/ life expectancy/ is melting like an ice cream under the sun of July in the Sahara...
et pr mes potos fra : les zozo's sont dans le pétrin! ;-)
End. (for now)
21/
in N° 15/ "if France, England or Russia" i meant Germany instead of Russia of course....
thanks for eagle eyes of readers !!
22/ yeah so for people asking (someone send me this near #kherson near #Chornobaivka ?? -see infra). or like Chuck shows it in is precious work (below) it will end up when necessary, exactly the same way. they'll get smoke. Ukr are not in "rush" to gain these places... Ukr will
23/ destroy them from afar, then "come in" draw back... pull them in pre determined best defensive lines from where they will "javelin" their asses.. and then move forward when really they'll assess it is "safe" enough to go forward.
this airport is nothing to "hurry/rush" for..
24/ for the ones who have missed my little thread about the assessment of casualties..

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More from @HeliosRunner

Jun 25
on this Assange release event...
(political choice before big next election)

let me put this link back here to show you that Ru were also already there for "long shots" way back then...
Network/ppl level/influencers/media/politics/"hacktivists" etc etc

bbc.com/news/technolog…
2/ #Assange is a Ru asset from day one (ok maybe day 2 lol) but that's all he is
foreignpolicy.com/2017/08/17/wik…
3/ also a must read for people who will say next "ho! i didn't know about that..

and keep in mind Mueller investigation cannot give you half of the extent of the reality as they never had access to all the CIA sources...
washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/…
Read 4 tweets
Mar 1
Incredible leaks regarding #Taurus
1/
2/ #TaurusLeak reveals the complete breach of all secured protocol / incompetence of German officers in the #Luftwaffe - German gov is really mad about it right now. Also all intel services are all hands on deck right now.
3/ so allegedly "being wiretapped, conspiratorial telephone conference by the Bundeswehr leadership, they plan to trick the federal government regarding the 🇩🇪 cruise missile in order to bring about delivery. Goal? Among other things, the attack on the Crimean Bridge" (sic)
Read 24 tweets
Feb 6
voilà voilà... j'en ai encore parlé hier soir
(j'ai juste supprimer le post hier soir parce que j'avais trop de messages, mais il semble maintenant que tout le monde va être au courant)
Par contre bcp de choses sont encore à régler. ce n'est pas facile surtout en ce moment.. 1/ Image
2/ Paris et Kiev finalisent les préparatifs de la visite du président @EmmanuelMacron en #Ukraine, en se concentrant sur un accord pour que la France fournisse des avions de combat multirôles #Mirage 2000D. Le ministre ukrainien de la Défense, Rustem #Umerov, est attendu
@EmmanuelMacron 3/ cette semaine à Paris pour finaliser les accords avec le ministre français de la Défense @SebLecornu . Le plan initial prévoyait le transfert de six avions, mais ce nombre est désormais porté à 12. La France recherche également des missiles et des solutions de formation, avec
Read 5 tweets
Nov 8, 2023
1/ #Gaza map update #IDF despite really hard battle involving dismounting troops/Spec forces at night r allegedly breaking through to Gaza City center, but as we can't confirm it, we can still produce this map that is made on only verified locations (blue limits for IDF)
#Israel Image
2/ from yesterday evening. i also had direct infos that the area between the north south axis, west to the defensive walls (stripe areas) are indeed totally under complete surveillance. What i was just not able to figure out is if there is a junction with troops coming from Beit Image
3/ hanoun or not. Also infos from journalist i've translate seems to confirms all the geoloc that were assessed to make this map.

Actually what an israeli journalist said on the ground is that all the main axis are AT least under direct control up to 500m to be able to interdict
Read 14 tweets
Nov 7, 2023
1/ So actually here is how we have to "read it" :
"i don't give a damn fck abt palestinians, but as long as they all play in my hands (incl south Liban & Syria & Iran & Yemen) & that American are forced to stall their help toward Ukraine... i'm just super happy you idiots"
2/ there is no "friends" (out of best friends) for him, there is right now a HUGE amount of cards he can plays to create greater problems for people who are helping Ukraine.
between dozen millions of hebrew/jews around the world and BILLIONS of people he might use for his plan
3/ the "thinking process" was quite easy .
also never forget that there are lots of muslims in Russia and he certainly does not want right now, any problems with people he might need to send to the front line in Ukraine in order to serve as canon fodder Image
Read 10 tweets
Nov 3, 2023
#Gaza map update. #IDF has almost reached the main points of entry south of Gaza City, severing main LOCS to the southern Gaza Strip. Up north the situation is not that clear, but despite tremendous hard battles, it seems that they are able to still move forward
#Israel #Hamas Image
2/ in the meantime in lalaland Image
3/ also i do believe talking to a good friend of mine...
that this famous map with tunnels' sketches is really for kids
not saying they don't exist of course, but that the actual lines are really not looking like that ! Image
Read 18 tweets

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