Thread by @vikkhanna

1/ Live 🧵

Let's explore why the @CityofVancouver & @VSB39 plan separately. How did it end up being that a major city produces a blueprint for the future that does not include school & amenity planning.

First, let us set the stage for #vanpoli NIMBYs & YIMBYs.

2/ Simplified 🤗 take

NIMBYs have kids & grandkids
YIMBYs plan for kids & have kids

Let's reset & unite on the theory that you care about kids. How would you address the fact that our local governments are planning in silos? What impact will this have on your kids' kids? #bced

3/ What impact does this have on Vancouver's ability to attract and retain families? Does the City know who it is building for? Does the VSB know how to forecast?

Deep down, we all know the city is going to become dense; just debating the shape & speed.

4/ I have had a front row view. Let's go back to the pre-pandemic era, Nov 2019. I sent an email to Sadhu, City Manager.

Nice email that somehow is fully relevant 3 years later; we move so unacceptably slow...

Sadhu replied. What do you think he said?

5/ City Manager Sadhu replies back early in the morning! Gil, General Manager Planning replies back:

"It’s great timing that VSB is firing up this initiative at the same time as the City’s “Vancouver Plan” initiative."

There's a sense of some enthusiasm for coordination!

6/ Later that day, I am in touch with the #VancouverPlan team leader!

"We would be happy to collaborate and support work on VSB’s LRFP in alignment with the Vancouver Plan."

You see, both are starting at the same time. What an opportunity!

What happens next...?

7/ At this point, I am not fully invested in advocacy but start attending @VanDPAC meetings so send it there, with my observations:

Cool = City is keen to collaborate, offer resources and work on holistic plan!

Sad = Obviously, nobody at the VSB has contacted them!

8/ An aside on what triggered this thread and thinking right now. I get triggered when I see staff being blamed. City or VSB or MLA staff (Shout Out: Nadja & Dulcy!) It's also a form of distraction politics; like blaming somebody else to take heat off you.

9/ I get a reply from @VanDPAC that provides insight into who is exactly responsible.

"Any suggestion to align the processes should come from the Board. If City staff are interested in the idea, the Board is the only entity that can direct VSB staff to play along."

10/ So we now know who is responsible; the VSB Trustees. They own it the decision to partner officially with the City on the #VancouverPlan. Obviously, if you plan your schools, parks and amenities, the stronger plan you would have. The City knew this and wanted a strong plan.

11/ We'll get to what the VSB Trustees did soon...

But first, take a look at @VanDPAC Q # 10:

"Does the VSB have too many Kindergarten lotteries for your comfort? If so, what will you do about it?"

docs.google.com/document/d/16X…

12/ OK, what's the big boss, @bcedplan doing back in 2019? Well, that year, they issue new Long Range Facilities Plan Guidelines.

13/ Back to what did the Trustees do about planning being aligned with local governments? Did they create policy like the their counterparts in Nanaimo did?

Nanaimo has alignment; Congrats @sd68bc!

14/ Trustees did not have the VSB join the #VancouverPlan. This mystifies me. Think about it; who says "no thanks" to the opportunity for making better decisions?

Instead:

1⃣ City & VSB sign up for "data sharing"
2⃣ Trustees work on the LRFP Vision

15/ So what's in the VSB Long Range Plan Vision?

1⃣Neighbourhood School
2⃣Use Where Kids Live and Will Live
3⃣Calculate how we actually use spaces (capacity %)
4⃣Community Partnerships

So the Trustees have a vision that says that they should align with local governments.

16/ What does the VSB LRFP say about its Vision?

"...a long-term vision that will slowly evolve over time. As a planning process, the three separate components of the LRFP provide a structure connected to a predictable annual cycle that aligns with established business..."

17/ Wait. What.

That's its own vision. The Trustee Vision. A decent Trustee Vision. So the operation of the long range facilities plan's actual operation is not aligned with the vision?

Yes. And the Trustees Agreed To This! They own it.

18/ So what's the operational side of the VSB Long Range Facilities all about?

1⃣Safer Schools
2⃣Less Schools & Bigger Schools
3⃣Modern Schools

Hey that does not sound too bad, does it? Especially if you could flip a switch and wake up tomorrow with it all done. But you can't

19/ The assumption section of the VSB LRFP says it all; the seismic program has no end date and it takes 5 to 6 years for an elementary school and 7 to 9 years for a secondary school from planning to constructed.

Would algorithm to project out to 2070?

20/ Speaking of algorithms, the VSB pays for enrolment management and forecasting software that takes data from several legit sources & adds some black box magic.

You can check it out here, but promise to email your MLA if you think it is not right.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

21/ Let's bring home an interim TLDR:

VSB Trustees have agreed to an operational plan that will slowly evolve to fulfil the LRFP Vision and the operational plan has no timeline whatsoever.

& A declining forecast; 5,422 fewer kids in 10 yrs.

OK, let's see how this plays out...

22/ Let's bring back the Major Assumptions of the VSB LRFP again and look at the assumption about @CityofVancouver Housing Data!

Remember that agreement where City and VSB share data? What does the VSB do with it?

Woah, says right here; "local knowledge" = city data not used.

23/ OK, so here we have the proof that the VSB enrolment forecast does not include city data, and the VSB says that is OK because their algorithms use some net-migration intelligence to capture areas of growth like #Kitsilano. Let's check in on schools near @Dave_Eby's office.

24/ Wait. So if the algorithms net-migration is supposed to capture the housing growth that takes place in Kitsilano, does it make sense that the prediction is for fewer kids?

Do you trust this? the VSB Trustees did.

25/ Ultimately, what this means is that VSB LRFP does not have a single map of any VSB area growth because of the false belief that the net-migration algorithm will capture everything.

Read more about enrolment in this deep dive:
docs.google.com/document/d/13l…

26/ So, so what are the Trustees trying to do; I mean they have good intentions, right? Yes, they do!

1⃣ Focus on getting kids into safe schools
2⃣ Close/consolidate the smaller ones to move faster
3⃣ Dispose land to make the remaining schools modern new seismic replacements

27/ And here's why it will never work. Secret VSB Land Asset Management Strategy. What we know is in this redacted version that an anonymous engaged citizen sent me. Calls for disposition of:

8⃣ Annexes
1⃣3⃣ School Closures/Consolidations

Check it out:
drive.google.com/file/d/1Sx74eR…

28/ Secret school closures are highly problematic when you have no timeline as demographics will change. What you thought you could close, you find out you can't and your previous decisions there could have been far more optimized. So how does this play out in the VSB LRFP?

29/ Here's a couple of Secondary School scenarios from the VSB LRFP:

1⃣ Consolidate Pt. Grey and Prince of Wales
2⃣ Close Gladstone

Likely, Pt. Grey and Gladstone are in the VSB Land Asset Strategy for land disposition.

30/ Here's a couple of Elementary School scenarios from the VSB LRFP:

1⃣ SMP Grenfell & Renfrew; Close Bruce
2⃣ Close McBride & Dickens Annexes

Likely, Bruce, McBride Annex & Dickens Annex are in the VSB Land Asset Strategy for land disposition.

31/ The VSB LRFP does little for equity. 90% of all school closures & land dispositions will be East Side!

Fundamentally unfair because the VSB does not use "where kids live and will live" for school facility planning.

Rise up #EastVan as density is coming! cc: @adriandix

32/ OK. Think about this image. East Vancouver is has millions of additional sq. ft. in residential development planned. The City shares this data with the VSB.

The VSB Trustees approve plan to dispose lots of #EastSide school land and the Trustees are OK with this?

33/ I don't know how much diligence Trustees do, but do know that this VSB LRFP is untenable and not viable. I have a feeling that the Ministry also thinks so since nothing major in Vancouver has been funded for 3 years. Let's explore some reasons...

34/ Would be good to bring up the Ministry's guidelines again and go through it from the consultation requirements:

1⃣Consult with each of its local governments
2⃣Public consultation is a key element
3⃣Consultation must include First Nations

35/ Consult with each of its local governments

@CityofVancouver: Nothing reported except "we share data" and have data sharing agreement.

Oh, and VSB/Council Committee, 3 to 3 meet bi-annually. A small step forward.

@UBC: Nothing in LRFP.

36/ Public consultation is a key element

The @VanDPAC Facilities Committee put together a report on how we wanted to provide input into the LRFP but were consulted on "Build2Learn."

Typical; we say "We want consultation on 🍎and not on 🍊" too often.
👀
static1.squarespace.com/static/56baeb4…

37/ Consultation must include First Nations

Unknown except for @SquamishNation feedback deemed to be out of scope - you see they too were consulted on "Build2Learn", not the LRFP!

How is "Building and changing neighbourhoods" out of scope?

38/ VSB LRFP is not challenging the status quo; In fact, the VSB land strategy suffers from a crisis of imagination. The traditional suburban school's time in a City has passed; now all schools need to be multi-use and address human resources challenges.

39/ The Ministry gave a huge hint in the summer of 2021 that it was not happy with the LRFP and asked the VSB (and no other school district) for a special Long Term Investment Plan.

Check it out here; The Olympic Village business case is in it too. vsb.bc.ca/District/Plann…

40/ Instead of anything innovative, we have the VSB double down on the strategy that telling the Ministry that VSB will close schools will get it funded for some needed seismic mitigations to high risk schools. That less bigger safer schools is better than neighbourhood schools.

41/ We need a totally new approach to school planning. We have to shake off the suburbia-in-the-city thinking and start working on a new model; the one for the future: more vertical, more dense, more community type of schools that have seamless before and after school care.

42/ A totally different funding approach is required too. Currently, here's how it works:

VSB: Can we get Olympic Village

Ministry: Do you have up to 50% to put in?

VSB: No.

Ministry: Well, dispose something. CSF wants QEA.

Yet every other BC school district can raise funds.

43/ That's the School Site Acquisition Charge that Vancouver can't charge it due to Vancouver Charter.

For rapid seismic mitigation and the general upgrading of our poor school infrastructure, we need a school infrastructure charge. ROI will be great & we can move fast.

44/ So without the ability to raise funds, you see where the pressure to dispose land comes in but it just trades a current problem for a future problem.

Exceptional student journalists at @ehnewspaper covered the Quid Pro Quo: ehnewspaper.ca/articles/queen…

45/ OK, if parent volunteers can cobble this all together, then why can't Trustees? They have more information. Have access to the Ministry.

Or...they could have partnered and aligned with the local governments a long time ago. It's still not too late.

46/ Oh, something new. I am reviewing the VSB Facilities Planning Agenda and the VSB LRFP in anticipation for our @VanDPAC Facilities Committee meeting later today.

So 50,000 people x 3% school age kids = 1,500 kids.

@CityofVancouver: Is that your component data?

47/ The @VanDPAC Facilities Committee meeting is at 7pm tonight. It's open to all VSB Parents and Caregivers and we'll be discussing what advice to give the Trustees at the Wednesday VSB FPC meeting.

LRFP Discussion Tonight at 7PM on Zoom; Register here: us02web.zoom.us/meeting/regist…