Good evening,
I’m sharing one of my NAV modeling (cashflow) results.🧵
Company: Permian Resource Corporation
Sector: O&G
Ticker: $PR (NYSE)
Current SP: $9.04
My Estimated NAV: $18.06
Peers: $SM $CPE $CTRA $DVN $FANG $MTDR $PDCE
*Not investment advice*
#WTI #Brent #Permian #POM
Production/Decline Assumptions
Observed production composition from FY 2021
Projected Revenue Mix
Capitalization and Enterprise Value
WACC
CDEVs historical reserves
Merger Transaction capitalization (CDEV and Colgate)
***$176,092,000 net opening cash post merger***
Debt and associated costs
CDEV historical production and resulting CAGR
Projected oil/gas production mix
Projected production expenses
Net acreages combined
Projected cashflows and 2P reserves through 2024 (assuming current commodities prices maintain)
While im currently long in $PR and hold a bullish outlook, I still reserve my own level of conservatism.
Specifically in WTI realization.
PR projects 96%~99%
But i use a lower 90% for my analysis. This is based on CDEV’s average history & because we have no Colgate history.
Company Website
permianres.com
Link to SEC filings permianres.com/investor-relat…
Projected annual reserve production mix (graphically)
Energy Prices used in model:
YYYY: Oil - NatGas - NGL
2022: $90 - $6.75 - $81
2023: $85 - $6.50 - $78
2024: $75 - $5.25 - $63
2025: $65 - $4.55 - 55
2026+: $60 - $4.20 - $50
* (per Bbl)
Don’t overlook this WACC!
Forecasted production mixes must not be doné sloppily…..must closely examine inventory.
Important slide here….
BTW,
🔘I hold a long stock position in $PR and i have a bullish outlook on the company.
🔘I’m in no way affiliated with the company’s operations or employees.
🔘I have no access to any MNPI data on the company.
@UnrollHelper unroll
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