WeedFarmer Profile picture
Oct 7, 2022 24 tweets 6 min read Read on X
Good evening,

I’m sharing one of my NAV modeling (cashflow) results.🧵

Company: Permian Resource Corporation
Sector: O&G
Ticker: $PR (NYSE)
Current SP: $9.04
My Estimated NAV: $18.06
Peers: $SM $CPE $CTRA $DVN $FANG $MTDR $PDCE

*Not investment advice*
#WTI #Brent #Permian #POM Image
Production/Decline Assumptions Image
Observed production composition from FY 2021 Image
Projected Revenue Mix Image
Capitalization and Enterprise Value Image
WACC Image
CDEVs historical reserves Image
Merger Transaction capitalization (CDEV and Colgate)

***$176,092,000 net opening cash post merger*** Image
Debt and associated costs Image
CDEV historical production and resulting CAGR Image
Projected oil/gas production mix Image
Projected production expenses Image
Net acreages combined Image
Projected cashflows and 2P reserves through 2024 (assuming current commodities prices maintain) Image
While im currently long in $PR and hold a bullish outlook, I still reserve my own level of conservatism.

Specifically in WTI realization.

PR projects 96%~99%

But i use a lower 90% for my analysis. This is based on CDEV’s average history & because we have no Colgate history. Image
Company Website

permianres.com
Link to SEC filings permianres.com/investor-relat…
Projected annual reserve production mix (graphically) Image
Energy Prices used in model:

YYYY: Oil - NatGas - NGL

2022: $90 - $6.75 - $81
2023: $85 - $6.50 - $78
2024: $75 - $5.25 - $63
2025: $65 - $4.55 - 55

2026+: $60 - $4.20 - $50

* (per Bbl)
Don’t overlook this WACC!
Forecasted production mixes must not be doné sloppily…..must closely examine inventory.
Important slide here….
BTW,

🔘I hold a long stock position in $PR and i have a bullish outlook on the company.

🔘I’m in no way affiliated with the company’s operations or employees.

🔘I have no access to any MNPI data on the company.
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More from @Theweedfarmer

Mar 13, 2023
🧵1

So many posts/tweets/articles about the $SIVB meltdown but no one is explaining/breaking it down for the masses to understand.

Firstly, Silicon Valley Bank Was The Largest Banking Failure Since The Global Financial Crisis In 2008.
🧵2
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My updated NAV model:

Company: @ElectraBMC
Sector: #Materials #Refining #Mining
Ticker: $ELBM
CEO: @TrentMell
Recycling Peers: $ABML $LICY
Refining Peers: None (domestically)

#Cobalt #Manganese #Graphite #Nickel #Lithium #Aluminum #BlackMass #EV
*I'm Long-Bullish|Not advice* Image
Alternative forward looking valuation multiples (EV to EBITDA & Sales) Image
NAV valuation contribution Image
Read 25 tweets

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