Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #WTI

Most recents (24)

The EIA released its Annual Energy Outlook
Here's 15 forecasts that went right and wrong over the past decade - a thread #oott #oil #natgas #renewables
Oil Demand: In 2011, oil demand was forecast to be 19.1 Mbbls/d by 2022 (actual: 17.7 Mbbls/d) Image
Part of the energy revisions reflect changes to U.S. population growth (which has been revised down 6% since the 2018 - the first year with forecasts out to 2050). By 2050, U.S. population is expected now at 370 mln vs. 395 mln people previously. Image
U.S. Crude Supply: In 2011, oil production was forecast to be 3.8 Mbbls/d by 2022 (actual: 9.6 Mbbls/d).
2050 production forecast has been revised 5% higher y/y to 11.2 Mbbls/d. But overall, for the next ~30 years, the EIA expects production to remain mostly flat #permian #bakken Image
Read 15 tweets
#BREAKING US oil contract WTI slides to 15-month low under $70
#BREAKING Dow index opens 1.5% lower as US banking shares tumble
#BREAKING US oil contract WTI widens losses, plunges 5%
Read 4 tweets
🗓 Daily #Macro & Market Recap 📰 Let's dive into a quick thread recapping some of today's market moving events 🗞, data 📝, & charts 📈📉 for Friday (03/03/23)… 🧵/👇🏼

$SPY $SPX ⬆️✅
$QQQ $NDX ⬆️✅
$DIA $DJIA ⬆️✅
$IWM $RUT ⬆️✅

#stocks #StockMarket #bonds #macro
1/🧵 Daily #StockMarket Sector Performance:

🍽 $XLP ⬆️✅
🏥 $XLV ⬆️✅
🏘 $XLRE ⬆️✅
📡 $XLC ⬆️✅
🛢 $XLE ⬆️✅
🏭 $XLI ⬆️✅
🤖 $XLK ⬆️✅
🏨 $XLY ⬆️✅
🏦 $XLF ⬆️✅
🪵 $XLB ⬆️✅
⚡️ $XLU ⬆️✅
2/🧵 Daily 🇺🇸 🏦 Treasury Market & Currency Performance: 💵💴💶💷

$DXY ⬆️✅
$TLT ⬆️✅
$HYG ⬆️✅
3mo ⬆️✅
2yr ⬇️🔻
10yr ⬆️✅
30yr ⬆️✅

#bonds #interestrates #Currencies #macro
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1/3 S&P eventually breaks the trend line as yields and the $DXY rise, stocks dip to S&P 4K, hold moving average support, pay Mr. Icahn, carve the 3rd higher low, and rally again. $SPY @Carl_C_Icahn Image
2/3 Dollar Index $DXY wants to retrace toward 106.50. Keep commodities $BCOM in a slow moving down trend and weighs on natural resource stocks. 106.50 is Fibo 38.2 resistance and the 100 day crossing 200 day. I'd bet a @gibsonguitar the dollar fails that and dumps. Image
3/3 And if anyone wants to talk about the fact that WTI just swallowed a 26M SPR release, a 16M bbl inventory build, and didn't even belch - I'd love to. #oilandgas $USO #WTI Image
Read 3 tweets
1/ La #Russia ha deciso che, a partire da marzo, taglierà del 5% la sua produzione di petrolio. Gli indici #Brent e #WTI sono immediatamente schizzati al rialzo. Una mossa che ha mandato nel panico l'occidente "non propagandistico" 👉 l'occidente che ragiona e che ha capito ⬇️
2/ La #Russia, con questa mossa inaspettata, sta mandando un messaggio: vuole chiudere la partita in #Ucraina (la grande offensiva in preparazione).

l'Occidente atlantista non è preparato a un ulteriore taglio della produzione di petrolio (Opec+ segue la linea russa) ⬇️
3/ Gli U$A, la cui intera economia si basa sul petrolio, hanno le riserve strategiche energetiche ormai intaccate (livelli dei primi anni '80). Non possono giocarsi la carta venezuelana e nemmeno quella iraniana ("ehi, iraniani! Vi togliamo le sanzioni... amici come prima?") ⬇️
Read 6 tweets
EIA came out with their Short Term Energy Outlook
- These are the largest revisions in key data points impacting oil markets today. Although many of the adjustments are small, it shows the directional bias the EIA sees with its forecast models - a thread
#oott #oilandgas #WTI Image
With China showing more signs of opening, oil demand was revised up 1% (160 mb/d). Is there more oil demand revisions to come? Possibly. Expected crude demand in 2023 is still only up 5% to 15.8 mln b/d (from 14.4 mln b/d in 2020) #oott Image
U.S. oil production in 2024 was lowered 1.4% (150 mb/d) - with much of this oil supply decline near the back-end of the year. As earning season progresses (and capex budgets are revised), we may see more estimate revisions to come #crude #permian #eagleford #midland #bakken Image
Read 6 tweets
Thread: Why has Oil & Gas been so volatile? Since 2018, the majority of all CDN E&P buying has come from high-turnover funds. Thus any WTI weakness had them rushing to the exits. Encouragingly, low-turnover funds have become the main buyer in 3Q

More energy inst. buying trends:
2/ As CDN Oil & Gas names hinted at bigger dividends & more growth post Q2 earnings, we saw these 'style' of funds be the dominant buyer in Q3. This theme likely continues as balance sheets allow for more ‘shareholder friendly’ items and growth into 2023 #WTI
3/ Importantly, some of the largest global funds are now picking up CDN Oil & Gas names. Given their AUM size, it can take multiple quarters to establish a position, suggesting there is more large block buying to come in future quarters #energy #CrudeOil #OOTT
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Good evening,

I’m sharing one of my NAV modeling (cashflow) results.🧵

Company: Permian Resource Corporation
Sector: O&G
Ticker: $PR (NYSE)
Current SP: $9.04
My Estimated NAV: $18.06

*Not investment advice*
#WTI #Brent #Permian #POM Image
Production/Decline Assumptions Image
Observed production composition from FY 2021 Image
Read 24 tweets
If you’re wondering why OPEC+ has felt so emboldened lately, here are 3 before and afters which may give some clues…

As @DoombergT likes to say “we are not led by serious people”


#oott #oil #wti
Read 4 tweets
A thread – Our takeaways from the Dallas Fed Energy Survey (and how sentiment has changed from prior surveys)

Costs: Expected Finding & Development costs have slowed. Only 66% of Oil & Gas companies surveyed expect costs to rise (vs 72% last quarter) #oott #WTI #oilgas #invest
A thread –Dallas Fed Energy Survey
The drop in WTI has ‘Company Outlooks’ falling quite hard from prior quarters – with only 39% reporting a better outlook (vs. a high of 82% seeing a positive outlook in 1Q22). #oott #oilandgas #WTI
A thread –Dallas Fed Energy Survey
The Uncertainty Index continues to move higher and now back to levels seen at 2Q20. This ‘uncertainty’ likely keeps upcoming capex budgets muted, putting a lid on new oil and natgas supply for 2023 #oott #WTI #crude
Read 9 tweets
Thread (1/5) Why have Oil & Gas stocks been so volatile? Since 2019, nearly all buying of CDN midcap E&Ps has come from high-turnover funds. Thus the first sign of WTI weakness had them rush to the exits. Encouragingly, low-turnover funds were the main buyer in 2Q buying $1.4 bln Image
Thread (2/5): Since 2019, most buying of CDN midcap Oil & Gas names have been from energy focused funds. Q2 was the moment where the 'Generalist' investor has finally come back (and in size), buying $1.1 bln! The sector is 'investable' again #energy #yyc Image
Thread (3/5): Importantly, some of the largest global funds are picking up CDN midcap Oil & Gas (finally). Given their AUM size, it can take multiple quarters to establish a position, suggesting there is more large block buying to come in future quarters #yeg #energy #CrudeOil Image
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For the next three months, I plan to post a slide-a-day from the @MSFTResearch #NewFutureofWork report, calling out interesting tidbits and providing links to learn more. Find the complete report at: Image
An amazing amount of work went into producing the #NewFutureofWork report. I created a list so that you can follow all of the report authors on Twitter:… Image
#Slide17: Priorities have shifted towards tighter integration of work and personal needs. E.g., the #WTI (…) shows that many are more like to put family, personal life over work than before the pandemic. #Flexibility #NewFutureofWork Image
Read 24 tweets
Crude sitting on Daily PT2

#CL_F #Crude #OOTT #WTI
Volatility on first leg down 31;
Volatility on retest 27
Tail 1
Read 7 tweets
WTI still went from 0-100 faster than Nikola’s electric truck..

Trevor Milton charged with securities fraud. $NKLA

via: @ABC
$NKLA @nikolamotor 📉 Image
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WTI is down ~30% the past week, but the supply / demand thesis remains intact:

- Drawing from inventories every week
- OPEC continues to miss output targets
- Global demand rising
- Rig count lagging
- Multiple risks to supply still on the table

#OOTT #COM #EFT #CrudeOil #WTI
Global supply is still suppressed from 2019’s numbers. Image
Global demand has rebounded and isn’t going anywhere but higher. Image
Read 3 tweets
A brief history of the US #Oil Export Ban and subsequent lifting in '15

With gas prices recently breaking ATHs, ‘the ban’ will likely be a heated topic going forward… likely once the energy secretary figures out just how much oil the country she represents consumes 👀
From ‘50 to ‘57, US production of crude increased by 33% while imports doubled as new cheap oil from the ME reached the market. Concerned about the nation’s growing dependence on imports, Congress authorized the Mandatory Oil Import Quota Program in '59, restricting imports. 2/21
From '59 until '70, domestic crude oil production increased by 2.6 mbpd, and net imports of oil increased by 0.4 million barrels per day. In '70, annual oil production peaked at 9.6mbpd. The program ended in '73. 3/21
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7 Mart 2022. WTI $130 ve Brent $137'ı gördü... #oott Image
Piyasalar Rus petrolüne ambargo uygulanma ihtimalini yukarı yönlü fiyatladı. İnanılmaz rakamlar.
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Alright, this one’s for all of the price chasers out there that are wondering what’s been happening with the Energy industry.

Here’s the story.

Let’s start in 2014.

After rising over 10% in the first half of the year, oversupply caused petroleum prices to slip in July. With growing production from both the Permian and abroad, the crude index continued to fall, down 51% by January 2015.…
In the years that followed, many people’s attention turned to climate change. The idea of peak oil consumption & society becoming carbon neutral caught on fast.

While spot prices went sideways, the rotation out of energy companies continued.
Read 14 tweets
1/n This thread will address some of the most frequent fallacies that are encountered in #energy investing.

While timing any commodity market is notoriously challenging, it is important to have guidelines & a basic framework of understanding.

#OOTT #EFT #Oil #shale
/2 Myth: The transition away from #fossilfuels means that #Oil prices are permanently capped. Reality: oil is a depleting physical asset, with high capital intensity. When prices are high, producers expend significant time & capital exploring for oil & gas. When prices are low,
/3 exploration is reduced. This ebb & flow means that oil remains a boom & bust commodity, despite the best efforts of companies, countries, & cartels to dampen the amplitudes. No one country, or bloc, sets the price. Not ‘Big Oil,’ not #Saudi, not ‘speculators.’ Oil Demand is a
Read 13 tweets
So biggest casualty of #Fed warning on #US #economy y'day, was #Gold,which dropped 3% to $1951.90 an ounce,within minutes of #FedMinutes

Silver too fell below $28

Rout was not limited to precious metals--#Nasdaq sold off despite #Apple hitting $2 trillion market cap

#CrudeOil whipsawed in tight range with #WTI at $42.83

#Fed's take on economic downturn was nothing new&yet markets collapsed

Only asset which saw aggressive buying was US #Tbills,with 10 yr #bond #yield@ 0.665% Vs previous close of 0.685%

#Dollar had its best day in 2 months
So what does y'day's frenzied buying in #bonds indicate?Is the #RiskOn trade over?

Well,not quite--With $9 trillion of excess global #liquidity sloshing around due to coordinated Central Bank rate cuts,since #Covid_19, equities will move up,albeit with severe bouts of volatility
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Bizde piyasalar Çarşamba gününe kadar tatil. Bayram sonrası küresel görünümüne ilişkin “food for thought”.
#SPX #Brent ve #WTI 100 günlük (siyah) ve 50 günlük (yeşil) hareketli ortalamaları.
Gün sonu kapanışları hâlâ bu arada. ImageImageImage
Özellikle #SPX endeksinin dakikalık veride 100 (yeşil çizgi) ve 200 günlük (siyah çizgi) hareketli ortalamaların üzerine çıkmış olsa da gün sonu kapanışlarının bu seviyelerden aşağı dönmüş olması önemli. Image
ABD endeksleri (kırmızı çizgi) ile Fed bilançosu (mavi çizgi) arasındaki uzun dönemde ve yakın zamandaki korelasyona dayanarak Corona salgınının hafiflediği ve ekonomiler açılmaya başladığı için bahar havası estirildi. Oysa riskli varlıklarda uzun pozisyon almak için henüz erken. ImageImage
Read 4 tweets
Para entender la caída en el precio del #WTI:

1. Los futuros de crudo son contratos donde se acuerda intercambiar una cantidad fija de crudo a un precio fijo en una fecha determinada.

Así, los inversores especulan sobre el crudo sin tener que comprar o vender físicamente.
2. Un contrato de futuros WTI:

- Equivale a 1,000 barriles,
- Cotiza en dólares,
- Es Mensual, vence 3 días hábiles antes del 25 de cada mes; y
- Se liquida con entrega física, es decir, si lo vendes en su vencimiento debes entregar petróleo y no “papel”.
3. Una gran cantidad de operadores inexpertos mantuvo su posición hasta el final.

Cuando quisieron deshacerse de sus contratos, no encontraron quien les recibiera (comprara) barriles de petróleo ya que la capacidad de almacenamiento está al límite.
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✍️Hilo | Me gustaría aclarar lo que pasado en el #petroleo dado que mucha gente lee las noticias y estas informan muy mal de la situación.

El petroleo ha estado negativo es el #WTI (West Texas Intermediate) es producida en USA y no se transporta apenas por mar.
El #CL (Futuro WTI) es más operado debido es negociado por el #CME. Cuando compras un contrato puedes técnicamente recoger los barriles en Oklahoma pero nadie lo hace apenas, solo se utiliza para cubrir la materia prima o especular.
⛔Cuando el vencimiento del contrato se acaba (fecha se cierra, estos productos caducan), si estas largo (comprado) debes cerrar tu contrato, básicamente vender. Si haces "rollover" automáticamente vendes y también compras el siguiente. Diríamos es "renovar" tu posición.
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Lets talk about #Oil and why the price of the #US benchmark #WTI West Texas Intermediate has turned negative FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER...
Some of you are waking up to what might read or sound like another disaster. Just when you were learning how to deal with #COVID19, you hear about a so called plunge in the #Price of #Oil. But what does it mean to have oil in negative territory & why is that the case? Lets see...
In the main we will talk a bit about simple matters of #supply & #demand while touching on the #future as far as #consumer outlooks & #perception / #confidence are concerned. I would like us to start in 2016, a quick recap...what happened to #Oil?
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