Thread by @MappingFL

Yesterday I released my Florida State Senate ratings. You can read all details!

mcimaps.substack.com/p/issue-73-my-…

Today, let me offer a THREAD on SD3, where Incumbent Loranne Ausley (D) is at risk of losing in her Biden +3 district; which covers the Tallahassee region #flapol #sayfie

This district is heavily dominated by Leon County, which holds Tallahassee. In a modern context, Leon and maj-black Gadsden County dominate the vote total. However, the outside rural counties are deep red, with most blue pockets being maj-black precincts #flapol

Gadsden and the North Florida African-American community are a critical voting block for Democrats in the area. I covered a recent DeSantis-inspired scandal in the county here #flapol

The district used to be much more Democratic leaning. The area is home to old dixiecrats, much like southern regions and Appalachia. See the 2002 Florida Governor election and all the N FL blue #flapol

In fact, when Loranne Ausley ran for Florida Chief Financial Officer in 2010, and lost in a statewide landslide of 19 points, she won in the modern Senate seat by 16 points! #flapol #sayfie

Part of this was that Ausley comes from an old political family with long roots in the community, but it also reflects the down-ballot democratic advantage. In 2013, this was the makeup of county commissions in Florida #flapol #sayfie

In 2016, Senator Bill Montford defeated an under-funded GOP opponent by over 30 points. Montford had long family ties in the Liberty/Calhoun region, but really made a name as Leon Superintendent #flapol

2020 marked a major change, when the then-open seat saw State Rep Ausley face a well-funded challenge from Marva Preston, who is African-American and a retired cop. The GOP put $8 million into the race, but Ausley did win by 7 points #flapol #sayfie

Ausley did several points worse than Biden, namely by under-performing in the African-American community, while having some (but not a large amount) of rural white over-support #flapol

Now Ausley faces off against Cory Simon, an African-American former head of Volunteer Florida with a storied career as an FSU football player for the 1999 Champion team. And she's now running in a seat that got redder when it had to expand, now only Biden +3 #flapol.

The campaign has not gone well for Ausley, which you can read about in my article. Scandals over a racially-tinged mailer have hurt her efforts to tie Simon to the GOP agenda. Simon is pushing a bipartisan image while the FL GOP pours millions into the district #flapol

Ausley isn't totally dead in the water. But facing a republican who can overperform in the black community, has a strong bio, millions in backing, in a Biden +3 seat, is all a bad sign for the incumbent #flapol