Cedric Mas Profile picture
Historien militaire du dimanche - Président de l'Institut Action Résilience @InstitutAR - terrorisme & Société - Avocat au barreau de Marseille - IHEDN 223

Nov 2, 2022, 23 tweets

#Ukraine 11/02 morning of 252nd day of the invasion. Despite the relative feint immobility, fighting continues. Weather is not the only explanation for the slowdown in UKR ops as RUS forces increase their attacks in an attempt to take the initiative.
(Trans. @StphaneCardon3 )

#Ukraine 11/02 (2) In the northeast the UKR try again to make the effort toward Svatove and the Krasna line (actually west of the river).

#Ukraine 11/02 (3) The terrain in this area is suitable for maneuvers, but the UKR must have the manpower to face the accelerated deployment of Russian troops.

#Ukraine 11/02 (4) the sector around Kreminna is particularly interesting, it is the pivot of the RUS defense line in front of the Krasna (as Lyman was for Oskol’s front).
(Map @AndrewPerpetua )

#Ukraine 11/02 (5) Local RUS counterattacks are endless (yesterday in Makiivka & Nevske). UKR forces can inflict casualties but are forced to stop their advance.

#Ukraine 11/02 (6) further south there is an outburst of RUS attacks from Verkhnyokamyanske, Bilohorivka & Spirne, Soledar, Bakhmut in the Donetsk front. A few hundred meters gained but it’s a sign of the rise of mercenaries within the Russian system.

#Ukraine 11/02 (7) UKR forces are still resisting in the middle of a desolate and devastated landscape.

#Ukraine 11/02 (8) We can't imagine the resources needed to hold the front in the face of the deluge of fire alternating with attacks by lawless criminals, especially with the mud and cold that come with winter.

#Ukraine 11/02 (9) Bakhmut is still holding (further south too, even if the front is being nibbled by the Russians), since the beginning of July... Here a UKR patrol in the deserted streets of a small ruined town.

#Ukraine 11/02 (10) In Kherson, operations continue. The RUS forces have evacuated some of their heavy equipment, but have brought in a lot of reinforcements (mobilized) that have allowed them to reconstitute a front and even to push back the UKR advances (in Mylove for example).

#Ukraine 11/02 (11) The UKR continue to press the front. And the situation is complicated for both sides as shown by these impressive images of a RUS column caught under fire (and an escape that ends badly).

#Ukraine 11/02 (12) The RUS evacuation of materials is confirmed by satellite images, like the fortification works of Kherson with these concrete elements. twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

#Ukraine 11/02 (13) RUS strikes continue, killing civilians every day for no reason (note the coming back of "free" firing across the border towards Sumy).

#Ukraine 02/11 (13) These RUS strikes aim to target Ukrainian energy network. In addition to being relaunched with each defeat suffered, they target civilian facilities with the assumed aim of preventing normal civilian life. Electricity restrictions are now a daily occurrence.

#Ukraine 02/11 (14) For example, after the attack in Sevastopol, a new bunch of strikes targeted the dams, with all the risks for civilians.

#Ukraine 02/11 (15) These are terror raids, against civilian targets without real military justification.

#Ukraine 02/11 (16) UKR defense claims the destruction of the majority of vectors. 44 out of 50 on 31/10. This is to be confirmed but the real success is not here.

#Ukraine 02/11 (17) The real success of the Ukrainians is to quickly restore their infrastructure, with the help of Europeans, who deliver 300W electricity transformers.

#Ukraine 02/11 (18) This type of operation requires work over time to produce lasting effects, and not sudden bursts at the rate of defeats. This is the case of the HIMARS strikes which continue to weaken the C2 and the RUS supply.

#Ukraine 02/11 (19) Current operations have only one goal: to keep the initiative (for the UKR) and prevent the enemy from deploying his reserves where he wants by forcing him to plug his front’s holes (for the RUS).

#Ukraine 02/11 (20) With the end of the mud and the arrival of winter, the more solid ground will allow new operations (and will make it more difficult to bury oneself). It is therefore urgent for the RUS to force the UKR to use up their reserves.

#Ukraine 02/11 (22) A delayed and mostly incomplete update. I will come back tomorrow on the international context before addressing the situation of civilians in occupied areas. Have a good day and think about your loved ones.

#Ukraine a other translation Done thanks to @StphaneCardon3
With maps from @War_Mapper @AndrewPerpetua
#SlavaUkraini

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