Thread by @tomiahonen

Trump 2024 Thread 1/

Ok, Trump announced (as I said, he will run). Let's do the 'definitive' Thread on Trump 2024 campaign

He will EASILY win the GOP nomination

And he will lose at MONDALE levels in general election November 2024

#Trump2024 #MyMAGA #MAGA2024 #GOP2024 #MAGAGA

Trump 2024 Thread 2/

FIRST NOMINATION FIGHT

Do not think like a Democrat! Do NOT bring sanity into this discussion

Trump lost the popular vote in 2016 and 2020. By 2020, 7 million people voted against Trump

Trump lost GOP the House in 2018, White House in 2020, Senate in 2021

Trump 2024 Thread 3/

When Trump was voted out in 2020, he got 47% of the vote. After that he launched January 6th against America in 2021. Then he was caught in massive espionage in 2022

In the midterms, of Americans who voted, Trump approval was 39%

He is UNELECTABLE.

Trump 2024 Thread 4/

There has never been a politician as detrimental to one party as Trump has been. In these Midterm elections, where roughly 50% of Republicans lost, of Trump endorsed candidates 65% lost !!!!

Trump causes 15% WORSE PERFORMANCE to Republicans than without him

Trump 2024 Thread 5/

It is CLEAR that Trump is DAMAGING to the GOP. He is not only himself unelectable - having Trump around DESTROYS Republican chances in races they should have won

Only a TOTAL idiot party would nominate this loser. The biggest loser on the planet

Trump 2024 Thread 6/

I TOLD you. Do not think like a Democrat! Do not bring rational thought into discussion about Trump

The Republican party is not sane. They caught SPD Sarah Palin's Disease which went untreated, now has developed into full Trumpism: Magamadness. #Cult45

Trump 2024 Thread 7/

You are seeing & hearing PATHETIC whispers that Trump should not be their nominee. Chris Christie, Mike Pence, Ted Cruz. Nobody DARES to mention Trump by name. Fox is promoting others, but is not loudly telling their viewers that Trump is a serial con artist

Trump 2024 Thread 8/

Do NOT mistake these timid attempts as any spine or conviction. Remember Leningrad Lindsey Graham & Qevin McMoron. After briefly condemning Trump after Jan 6th, they RUSHED back into the fold. So do not fall for this FALSE narrative that GOP is dumping Trump

Trump 2024 Thread 9/

For the 2024 primary race - where the first GOP debate is about 9 MONTHS away - Trump has rushed to announce - only because Trump fears criminal prosecution, and thinks this MIGHT shield him (it will not). He also needs the money from gullible Maganutters

Trump 2024 Thread 10/

I'm not going to waste this Thread discussing what motivates Trump, what may or may not influence his run, will he be in it to the end. There MAY be an act of God for example, stroke, heart attack etc that MIGHT change the race THEN

I am talking about NOW

Trump 2024 Thread 11/

Trump announced. So he will run (but he might drop out at some point). Let's see how the primary race shapes up

DON'T THINK LIKE A DEMOCRAT

The Republican primary races are winner-take-all states

oh? You FORGOT that? Yes. Trump will win nomination EASILY

Trump 2024 Thread 12/

If Trump is on the primary ballot - he gets MAJORITY of Maga vote. There is no alternative, not even Death Santis could OUTPERFORM Trump against Trump BASE support. Many Trump maganutters HATE DeSantis

Trump OWNS the the Maga wing of this sick party

Trump 2024 Thread 13/

And 'RINO' wing is FAR smaller slice of GOP registered voters than Maga. So in MOST states, Trump wins at least a PLURALITY - and that means he is winner, he gets ALL the delegates. In a FEW states, the local boy can beat Trump: DeSantis in Florida

Trump 2024 Thread 14/

If Trump is on the ballot, he wins GOP nomination race in 'landslide' not because most Registered Republicans want him - but because the maga base will remain loyal to Trump

Note, the MORE there are GOP candidates, the easier it is for Trump

Trump 2024 Thread 15/

Do not give ANY credibility to ANY poll before the first GOP primary debate. Polls at this moment in past elections suggested GOP frontrunner was Gingrich, Giuliani, Jeb Bush, Michele Bachmann & Rick Perry

NONE OF THEM FINISHED IN TOP THREE OF GOP RACE

Trump 2024 Thread 16/

Ok. Trump wins GOP nomination. Then what? Obviously Trump will not have that shithead (I mean literally, the Lord of the Flies) Mike Dunce, sorry Mike Pence as Veep. Trump is auditioning women for the ceremonial role. I rate Nikki Haley as front runner

Trump 2024 Thread 17/

In the General election the incumbent nearly always wins. President Biden 'popularity' is IRRELEVANT at this point. Obama, W Bush, Bill Clinton were below 50% at this point and were easily re-elected. Biden will be re-elected in ANY case because...

Trump 2024 Thread 18/

President Biden will be re-elected because once he starts to campaign (after DEM party convention of 2024) he has HISTORIC record of achievements & 2020 election promises KEPT. The economy will be strong, whatever inflation we now have, will be down

Trump 2024 Thread 19/

But against Trump, yes Biden will win at 1984 Reagan vs Mondale levels. The biggest beating of the modern era. Why is this?

Trump got 46% in 2016, his average polling for 2016-2020 was 47% and Trump got 47% in 2020. He was NEVER even at 50/50

Trump 2024 Thread 20/

But after Trump lost in Nov 2020, Trump launched Jan 6th terrorist attack and attempted coup d'etat against America. After that failed, Trump was caught in massive espionage. American voters HATE this. His approval in 2022 midterms was 39%

Mondale got 40%

Trump 2024 Thread 21/

If Trump is on the ballot in 2024, the BEST the GOP can hope, is that Trump gets 39%

But 2022 was a midterms election where turnout is 2/3 of the general election. Democrats show up in Presidential elections. There are no more Republicans to show up

Trump 2024 Thread 22/

So, depending on how big the turnout will be in 2024, Trump will get LESS than 39%. My preliminary estimate is 35%. NOTE that as Fox moves away from Trump, that REDUCES their enthusiasm for Trump even more

Trump 2024 Thread 23/

What if Trump is indicted, in court, is convicted, is in prison?

THIS WILL NOT STOP ANYONE FROM RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT

Do not cling to childish fairy tales. TWO felons have run for US President (last about 100 years ago)

Trump 2024 Thread 24/

What if GOP kick Trump out the party, block him from debates, etc?

Trump would run as an INDEPENDENT and get MORE votes than whoever the Republicans run, and Biden wins by landslide

Trump 2024 Thread 25/

UNDERSTAND - Trump is a MONSTER that is DESTROYING the Republican party

#LetTrumpBeTrump

We WANT him to run. And now he is. And the more there is GOP infighting, the better it is for us. Relish this unique moment in history. Trump is wiping out the GOP

Trump 2024 Thread 26/

If Trump is on the ticket in 2024, he will drive an anti-Trump vote AMONG REPUBLICANS which is BIGGER than that same vote in 2022 midterms. That gives us BIG victories up and down the ballot

If Trump is NOT on the ballot, part of Maga vote will NOT SHOW UP

Trump 2024 Thread 27/

This is a 'win-win' choice for us. Whatever Trump now does, he either damages GOP vote into 2024 or he suppresses their vote. And our performance will be better in 2024 than in 2020 general election

Do not fear Trump. #LetTrumpBeTrump