Do not think like a Democrat! Do NOT bring sanity into this discussion
Trump lost the popular vote in 2016 and 2020. By 2020, 7 million people voted against Trump
Trump lost GOP the House in 2018, White House in 2020, Senate in 2021
Trump 2024 Thread 3/
When Trump was voted out in 2020, he got 47% of the vote. After that he launched January 6th against America in 2021. Then he was caught in massive espionage in 2022
In the midterms, of Americans who voted, Trump approval was 39%
He is UNELECTABLE.
Trump 2024 Thread 4/
There has never been a politician as detrimental to one party as Trump has been. In these Midterm elections, where roughly 50% of Republicans lost, of Trump endorsed candidates 65% lost !!!!
Trump causes 15% WORSE PERFORMANCE to Republicans than without him
Trump 2024 Thread 5/
It is CLEAR that Trump is DAMAGING to the GOP. He is not only himself unelectable - having Trump around DESTROYS Republican chances in races they should have won
Only a TOTAL idiot party would nominate this loser. The biggest loser on the planet
Trump 2024 Thread 6/
I TOLD you. Do not think like a Democrat! Do not bring rational thought into discussion about Trump
The Republican party is not sane. They caught SPD Sarah Palin's Disease which went untreated, now has developed into full Trumpism: Magamadness. #Cult45
Trump 2024 Thread 7/
You are seeing & hearing PATHETIC whispers that Trump should not be their nominee. Chris Christie, Mike Pence, Ted Cruz. Nobody DARES to mention Trump by name. Fox is promoting others, but is not loudly telling their viewers that Trump is a serial con artist
Trump 2024 Thread 8/
Do NOT mistake these timid attempts as any spine or conviction. Remember Leningrad Lindsey Graham & Qevin McMoron. After briefly condemning Trump after Jan 6th, they RUSHED back into the fold. So do not fall for this FALSE narrative that GOP is dumping Trump
Trump 2024 Thread 9/
For the 2024 primary race - where the first GOP debate is about 9 MONTHS away - Trump has rushed to announce - only because Trump fears criminal prosecution, and thinks this MIGHT shield him (it will not). He also needs the money from gullible Maganutters
Trump 2024 Thread 10/
I'm not going to waste this Thread discussing what motivates Trump, what may or may not influence his run, will he be in it to the end. There MAY be an act of God for example, stroke, heart attack etc that MIGHT change the race THEN
I am talking about NOW
Trump 2024 Thread 11/
Trump announced. So he will run (but he might drop out at some point). Let's see how the primary race shapes up
DON'T THINK LIKE A DEMOCRAT
The Republican primary races are winner-take-all states
oh? You FORGOT that? Yes. Trump will win nomination EASILY
Trump 2024 Thread 12/
If Trump is on the primary ballot - he gets MAJORITY of Maga vote. There is no alternative, not even Death Santis could OUTPERFORM Trump against Trump BASE support. Many Trump maganutters HATE DeSantis
Trump OWNS the the Maga wing of this sick party
Trump 2024 Thread 13/
And 'RINO' wing is FAR smaller slice of GOP registered voters than Maga. So in MOST states, Trump wins at least a PLURALITY - and that means he is winner, he gets ALL the delegates. In a FEW states, the local boy can beat Trump: DeSantis in Florida
Trump 2024 Thread 14/
If Trump is on the ballot, he wins GOP nomination race in 'landslide' not because most Registered Republicans want him - but because the maga base will remain loyal to Trump
Note, the MORE there are GOP candidates, the easier it is for Trump
Trump 2024 Thread 15/
Do not give ANY credibility to ANY poll before the first GOP primary debate. Polls at this moment in past elections suggested GOP frontrunner was Gingrich, Giuliani, Jeb Bush, Michele Bachmann & Rick Perry
NONE OF THEM FINISHED IN TOP THREE OF GOP RACE
Trump 2024 Thread 16/
Ok. Trump wins GOP nomination. Then what? Obviously Trump will not have that shithead (I mean literally, the Lord of the Flies) Mike Dunce, sorry Mike Pence as Veep. Trump is auditioning women for the ceremonial role. I rate Nikki Haley as front runner
Trump 2024 Thread 17/
In the General election the incumbent nearly always wins. President Biden 'popularity' is IRRELEVANT at this point. Obama, W Bush, Bill Clinton were below 50% at this point and were easily re-elected. Biden will be re-elected in ANY case because...
Trump 2024 Thread 18/
President Biden will be re-elected because once he starts to campaign (after DEM party convention of 2024) he has HISTORIC record of achievements & 2020 election promises KEPT. The economy will be strong, whatever inflation we now have, will be down
Trump 2024 Thread 19/
But against Trump, yes Biden will win at 1984 Reagan vs Mondale levels. The biggest beating of the modern era. Why is this?
Trump got 46% in 2016, his average polling for 2016-2020 was 47% and Trump got 47% in 2020. He was NEVER even at 50/50
Trump 2024 Thread 20/
But after Trump lost in Nov 2020, Trump launched Jan 6th terrorist attack and attempted coup d'etat against America. After that failed, Trump was caught in massive espionage. American voters HATE this. His approval in 2022 midterms was 39%
Mondale got 40%
Trump 2024 Thread 21/
If Trump is on the ballot in 2024, the BEST the GOP can hope, is that Trump gets 39%
But 2022 was a midterms election where turnout is 2/3 of the general election. Democrats show up in Presidential elections. There are no more Republicans to show up
Trump 2024 Thread 22/
So, depending on how big the turnout will be in 2024, Trump will get LESS than 39%. My preliminary estimate is 35%. NOTE that as Fox moves away from Trump, that REDUCES their enthusiasm for Trump even more
Trump 2024 Thread 23/
What if Trump is indicted, in court, is convicted, is in prison?
THIS WILL NOT STOP ANYONE FROM RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT
Do not cling to childish fairy tales. TWO felons have run for US President (last about 100 years ago)
Trump 2024 Thread 24/
What if GOP kick Trump out the party, block him from debates, etc?
Trump would run as an INDEPENDENT and get MORE votes than whoever the Republicans run, and Biden wins by landslide
Trump 2024 Thread 25/
UNDERSTAND - Trump is a MONSTER that is DESTROYING the Republican party
We WANT him to run. And now he is. And the more there is GOP infighting, the better it is for us. Relish this unique moment in history. Trump is wiping out the GOP
Trump 2024 Thread 26/
If Trump is on the ticket in 2024, he will drive an anti-Trump vote AMONG REPUBLICANS which is BIGGER than that same vote in 2022 midterms. That gives us BIG victories up and down the ballot
If Trump is NOT on the ballot, part of Maga vote will NOT SHOW UP
Trump 2024 Thread 27/
This is a 'win-win' choice for us. Whatever Trump now does, he either damages GOP vote into 2024 or he suppresses their vote. And our performance will be better in 2024 than in 2020 general election
On Monday Judge Chutkan in DC (Jack Smith 2) case will hold a hearing about putting a gag order on Herr Hezbollah, the nation's Terrorist-In-Chief. Trump was under protective order. He breached it many times. So this is now his 'final warning'
Let's do a Thread
GAG ORDER THREAD/2
Don't look at me like that! This is JUSTICE. It is EXACTLY the same legal standard that would apply to you and me. Nothing more, nothing less. Trump is a FIRST TIME OFFENDER; has NEVER been convicted of any crime (yet). He was put on a 'protective order' FIRST
GAG ORDER THREAD/3
Then Trump repeatedly broke that protective order. We WITNESSED IT LIVE on TV and on social media, REPEATEDLY
But the Judge CANNOT do anything about it. Until she is FORMALLY told by the prosecution. She CANNOT do anything yet. It would be same for you and me
We certainly feel it was taking too long. In reality this is about par for the course, in some ways FASTER than normal, for such a large criminal conspiracy. Timing is similar to Watergate
FIRST of PLANNERS of Jan 6 go to trial, in Georgia in two weeks !!!
So January 6th, 2021 was two years and 9 months ago. Over 1,000 of the violent mob have been caught, over half prosecuted, and prison sentences for those running up to more than a decade in prison. That is justice
The ORGANIZERS of the Jan 6th plot are Trump, the Seditious Six..
The ORGANIZERS of Jan 6 are
Trump
Seditious Six (Giuliani, Flynn etc)
Evil Eleven of Congress (Gosar, Gym, Gaetz etc)
and a handful others (Roger Stone, Bannon etc)
They are ALL CAUGHT
Jack Smith STARTED to prosecute the organizers. Look who he has as WITNESSES to this crime
Trump calls Hezbollah "very smart" for their terrorist attack? Same Senile Man called Putin smart for invading Ukraine. And called murdering dictators MBS and Kim Jong Un smart
Meanwhile Trump has called HIS OWN CABINET and HIS OWN GENERALS idiots & stupid
General Mattis: Trump's not mature, a 5th grader
General McMaster: he's a dope, kindergartner idiot
Colonel Esper: irresponsible
General Milley: crazy
General Hytin: an idiot
General Kelly: Trump's crazy, an unhinged idiot
Next...
Then let's ask Trump White House staff, people Trump selected:
VP Pence: Trump is reckless
CoS 1 Priebus: he's an idiot
CoS 2 (Kelly, in above)
CoS 3 Mulvaney: terrible human being, a clown show
CoS 4 Meadows: Trump is worthless
SoS Tillerson: he's a fucking moron
Trump was massively embarrassed in New York, and that trial still continues. But this incident (Trump sitting in NY court for 3 days and then bailed) exposes insight into how incredibly stupid, and self-destructive Trump is
Let's do a Thread
New York New York Thread /2
So what happened? Trump sat in the civil trial - he is NOT required to be there (he must attend all criminal trials which start in March 2024). He feuded with the judge, got hit with a gag order, then stormed out of New York. Let's see how dumb it was
New York New York Thread /3
Donald the Duck McTrump's whole brand is based on the carefully constructed fake illusion, that he is somehow a 'billionaire'. WE know he is not. That Trump is a fake, a con-artist, living on other people's money. But his SUPPORTERS believe that lie
What happens next? The House cannot conduct any other business until it has selected a new House Speaker. The GOP is in civil war. It may be chaos for a while. Most likely they find a suitable Republican Speaker
DEMs do not have votes for DEM Speaker
BUT DEMs could make a deal
If a slice of Republicans (as few as 6) ally with DEMs, then that alliance could select (a Republican) speaker
Realistically the most logical such choice is an EX House Republican, like Liz Cheney
Because of GOP civil war, DEMs have leverage now
This is the deal I suggest:
DEMs make deal for ANY Republican who they can trust (like Liz Cheney, Kinzinger) where promise is 2 House Votes every week. One vote on legislation provided by GOP, the other vote legislation provided by DEMs. Both will get a floor vote each week
With Friday's bombshell news in court filing by Jack Smith of 3 more prosecution witnesses - now just about as big as they come - let's do a Thread about the flippers in Trump's life, the rats who all testify under oath, in criminal courts, against Trump
Flipper Thread/2
Trump committed an act of insurgency against America. That word is rarely used. The legal EFFECT is the same as 'treason'. Trump committed a crime which is essentially as bad as treason
So who does Jack Smith have as a witness? Trump's OWN Attorney General Barr
Flipper Thread/3
Bill Barr was not just the nation's top lawyer, as Attorney General, when this plot was first hatched - Barr learned of the idea - and TOLD TRUMP IT IS ILLEGAL. That is what Barr will testify under oath. That Trump KNEW this plot is illegal