A word about natty with regard to US domestic thermal #coal.
1) Switching occurs at ~$3.50...may get that in back half of the year, but not close yet.
2) Producers are already sold out for 2023, so natty px doesn't have a big impact on '23 bottom line.
Int'l matters more 1/x
Re: TTF, prices roughly back where they were post-Dec '21 spike, and the entire curve has consolidated here. If EU industrial activity accelerates, that's constructive for both met and thermal #coal. 2/x
ARA (EU-delivered) thermal #coal prices already mimicking TTF consolidation. While we aren't getting another big spike to $300+ we are def not headed to $100 immediately with TTF at $60-80...think we're at $180-200 for most of winter. 3/x
Richard's Bay (South Africa) thermal #coal prices exact same situation as ARA/EU...consolidating and rangebound depending on weather. 4/x
But #Newcastle thermal #Coal remains king, and long term curve reflecting the historically normal ~15-20% premium over ARA.
Story is the same here, but with one big caveat - 50% of supply can be adjusted by $GLEN to keep prices high.
Until global gas collapses fr, we just here.
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