Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Coal

Most recents (24)

1/38. Today is the eighth day of the #BonnClimateConference (#SB58) and it saw the closing plenary of the Technical Dialogue of the #GST, discussions on the #SantiagoNetwork, the continuation of the #NCQG’s 6th Technical Expert Dialogue and the first stocktaking plenary. 🧵 Image
2/38. Today also saw a focus on #HumanRights with a number of side events and an action drawing attention to the key message that “there can be no #ClimateJustice without #HumanRights”.
3/38. Joining "No #ClimateJustice without #CivicSpace and #HumanRights: zooming in on the @UNFCCC process"* with @ciel_tweets, @amnesty and @350, we heard important messages on the need for safe #CivicSpace under the @UNFCCC so that we can make our #LossAndDamage demands heard!
Read 39 tweets
The conversation about #SouthAfrica's looming #electricitycrisis HAS to include coal.

Here's why: 🧵🧵 Image

Our energy sector is the 🥈 highest Green House Gas emitter of all the World's Industrializing countries (the G20) 🥲🌍🥲. Coal is responsible for roughly 85% of our energy generation 🤯.


👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻… Image

Coal is becoming less #efficient 📉
Its increasing Energy Return on Investment (or EROI) means that a higher energy input is needed to generate electricity!
The exact opposite of #renewable energy☘️… 🙄🙄

👇🏻👇🏻… Image
Read 8 tweets
The conversation about #SouthAfrica's looming #electricitycrisis HAS to include coal.

Why? Let's have a look 🧵🧵🧵 Image
Our energy sector has the 🥈 highest Green House Gas emissions of any the World's Industrializing countries (the G20) 🥲🌍🥲. Coal is responsible for roughly 85% of our energy generation 🤯. #GHG

👇🏻👇🏻… Image
Coal is now less #efficient 📉
The amount of energy required to get coal to create electricity is now higher, so basically nowadays… it’s giving us back less than before!
The exact opposite of #renewables☘️…🙄🙄

👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻… Image
Read 8 tweets
After two solid weeks of modeling $BTU using every kind of approach imaginable, I'm comfortable saying that b/c their mines have vastly different #coal qualities, management does not provide enough information for analysts to get a confident read on projecting earnings.

Taken straight from guidance, using a combination of committed prices and average prices since 2/14 (when 10-k was released) for PLV met/NEWC/API5 to cover unpriced tons, I get around $325M in FCF...a little light but in line with other comentary I've seen.

2/x ImageImage
If I use mine-level production, prices (tied back to guidance as best as we can), direct costs, and strip out royalties (which are included in mine costs), I get to a slightly lower number.

3/x ImageImage
Read 7 tweets
We would love to sit in privately held #coal companies getting 50% plus dividend yields for the next 20-30 years.
$500k investment and $250k dividends annually is a great pension annuity
$SBER < 50c DR entry (March 2022) equated to around a 300% dividend yield through 2026, likely payable for the next 50 years, capital gains >50x.

Mis-priced high dividend assets are great compounders.
Read 4 tweets
India's #electricity grid set several record highs Tuesday - there's a heatwave going on.
Per @GridIndia1's MERIT data (via @CSEP_Org's
1) Record demand met: ~216 GW
2) Record #coal generation: over 166 GW

📢 3 issues going forward...(short 🧵) Image
1) This isn't over - typical annual peaks are in June(ish).
2) The peak was not AM any more, rather, closer to 3 PM
3) Coal's output has been steady near max, with long durations of highs.

These 3 pts have implications as expanded below.
1) It will take planning, luck, AND ₹ (or $ = forex!) to prevent blackouts.

Short-term issue is fuel - gas prices ⬆️ & coal imports also ⬆️. Railways is stretched so coal stockpiles at plants are ⬇️.

@IMDWeather forecasts decent monsoon (96%), but the issue is also the timing.
Read 8 tweets
I would just like to share with you some pictures and some figures

below, a giant excavator (Bagger 288), only one of these machines is able to mine 240 000 m3 of lignite per DAY, enough to emit 1 million tons of CO2 Image
here is the home of this kind of monster, here, the Garzweiller mine (you can see six such machines on the first picture)

the surface occupied (or devastated) by one of these mines represents tens of km², the equivalent of a large city, and they continue to grow, ImageImage
some villages are paying the price for it

the surface devastated by the 9 mines below exceeds 500 km² (200 sq mi)

to give you a scale, the yellow line is 10 km (6 miles) long ImageImageImage
Read 10 tweets
Today and tomorrow, @G7 #Energy ministers meet in #Japan – a country, often considered a “laggard” on #energytransition. What is 🇯🇵’s energy system like and why is it so reluctant to step up #decarbonisation of its economy? A 🧵 1/19…
The “usual” arguments by the 🇯🇵 government when confronted with lack of both action and ambition on #energytransition:
1. #Japan is resource-poor
2. Japan’s geography limits #renewables build-out
3. Technologies & Innovation will solve the transition

How true are they? 2/19
Japan is indeed poor in some resources, most notably #fossilfuels. Fossil fuel based, its energy system is 88% dependent on #oil, #LNG and #coal imports. It has one of the least self-sufficient energy systems, dependent on #oil & gas from #MiddleEast & #coal from #Australia. 3/19 ImageImage
Read 19 tweets
there’s a range of opinions on #nuclear energy — some love it, some hate it, with many energy experts somewhat ambivalent.

…regardless, few will be cheering when germany’s last 3 nukes are retired this weekend while nearby coal power stations spew CO₂.…
german energy policy experts have patiently explained to me that the nuclear phaseout was a prerequisite for the country’s massive investment in renewables.

…but still a great shame the politics couldn’t be turned around, closing #coal first, resulting in much lower emissions.
i’m told that the 3 closed last year and these 3 could technically be restarted.

would be great if 8GW+ of nuclear was swapped for the same capacity of highly polluting brown coal.
Read 4 tweets
Research Report of the Week: The #Global #Electricity Review from Ember which is full of incredible information on what is going on in the world of electricity, #renewables etc…
1. #Wind and #solar reach a record 12% of global electricity in 2022 Image
2. In 2022 growth in #renewables met 92% of the increase in global electricity demand Image
Read 8 tweets
With the goal to catalyze more rapid and coordinated action across the full technology value chain, @ENERGY's #NuclearLiftoff establishes a common fact-base for the private sector for critical clean energy technologies. #BuildNuclearNow 1/x… Image
Regardless of level of #renewables deployment, to achieve net-zero in the U.S. by 2050 requires ~550–770 GW of additional clean, firm capacity. Modeling results indicate demand for 200+ GW of new nuclear capacity. #AdvancedNuclear 2/x Image
Multiple system-level decarbonization modeling exercises over the last 2 years have concluded that, especially with estimates for #renewables buildout that account for limitations from #transmission expansion and #LandUse, significant new #nuclear power would be required by 2050. Image
Read 12 tweets
What an amazing few weeks for #Nuclear Power. First, DOE launched the #NuclearLiftoff Report. Sober, well reviewed and realistic:…
The Pathways to Commercial Liftoff: Advanced Nuclear report found that the U.S. will need between 550-770 GW of additional clean, firm power to complement the deployment of variable renewables in order reach net-zero by 2050.
All #CleanFirm resources come with Pluses and minuses that we try to define for the first time. Please give us feedback!
Read 10 tweets
#Lithium is falling off the cliff like we said it would 6 months ago > 80% cash margins always do. Beware of those stating outperformance, at this point, review the previous cycle bottom for an indication of what's in store.
Down 48%, will it stop at -75%

Those in #commodities for a few cycles know that > 80% cash margins never last as they either kill demand and/or stimulate supply (particularly with an incoming recession that kills durable good demand)

Read 3 tweets
Thought of the day: Recency bias from #commodity peak when everything in the rear vision mirror looks "solid" is an optical illusion, around the bend a cliff is coming into sight a "recession", often stockprices drop 75% plus. Demand can get slaughtered at the margin.
#lithium & #coal are great case studies for those of our followers who don't understand nothing is rare at 80% cash margins and 20% cost.

While balance sheets are materially improved on 2020 levels, so few 95% corrections, but 50-65% are still reality with 75% spot falls from peaks.
Read 4 tweets
Thought of the day: How many don't understand they own #cyclical equities? And the cycle peaked out in 2022 for 90% and contagion is the order of the day in 2023? #natgas #lumber #coal #oil #uranium #ironore #tin #nickel
#cyclical means you exit as the cycle matures .....that was 2022 if not 2021 for 80% of #commodities. Then 60% will experience a 55-75% fall in spot prices. Then one revisits in 2H 2023 or 2024 for reentry. If one holds through the cycle they don't understand what they own.
In short stupidity holds

#Natgas stocks post the $10 peak.....bottom < $2

#Coal stocks post the $450 plus ton peaks.....bottom < $130
Read 3 tweets
PEs < 3x there are hundreds out there in Frontier markets, many growing eps at 20% per year plus. Let alone Fossil fuel stocks.
Remember a < 3x on peak #commodity spots is > 15x on spot lows
Note many think #Coal #Natgas & #oil stocks looked cheap on 2022 low PEs, in fact 65% were expensive.

#coal avg prices will drop by 50-65% over the next 2 years Vs 2022 average.

#natgas avg prices will drop by 50-60% over 2023 Vs 2023 avg.

#oil likely 30%

The market values
Read 4 tweets
Where is the alignment of interest? Avoid the asset collectors, focus in on the performance collectors.
Watch out for the specialists who want their 5 minutes of fame to extend for 40 minutes.

Follow the multi cycle generalists who have seen it all, they are not anchored in peak cycles whereas specialists are.

What specialists never say?

It's time to sell as valuations are above to collapse by 75%

What seasoned generalists, always do?

Scaled out prior to the peak and have moved on to fresh asymmetric themes.

Who should you be following....who has your back ...

Read 4 tweets
#cyclicals we have sent 35 years refining our technique, buy when on low price to book ranges, with low spot price near cost curve outcomes.
Spent 35yrs ...
Sell when on high price to book ranges and 60-80% cash margins above cost curves.

Hence #lithium and #coal peaks were easy....

Remember the rule, there is no rarity at 80% margins.

Read 3 tweets
We are independent thinkers $WKT 1.2x 2024 (0.6x 2027) CF, $CKA 1.8x 2024 CF (0.4x 2027) and $AEE 1x 2025 CF (0.5x 2028)

We won't mention a position unless we own it or are accummulating it (and eventually scaling down, often due to size constraints of our 20 baggers), sometimes in size, we are paid by noone to promote anything. We are asset managers who investor near cycle bottoms.
Many of our core positions are difficult to replicate, hence we are cycle holders, particularly in #uranium.

$CKA while we believe the #coal cycle is against us, the company will scale up to 5mtpa through 2027 and produce 3x it's current cap in cashflow in due course.
Read 4 tweets
Slight reprieve for #Adani this week due to a baffling $1.9B from @GQGPartners-who apparently❤️fossil fuels > due diligence. Aside from that it’s been a total binfire for the rapidly unraveling coal giant. Here’s another round up of bad news for Adani’s destructive coal empire🧵
#Adani Group’s complex debt structure and weak transparency, evidenced by the use of Adani Green Energy shares to support its coal unit, could further increase ESG concerns and hinder funding access.” @MSCI_Inc @MoodysInvSvc @FitchRatings @SPGlobal…
"Over time, the group (#Adani) has emerged as India’s biggest coal MDO — currently, it has nine MDO contracts for blocks holding more than 2,800 million tonnes of coal." @MSCI_Inc @MoodysInvSvc @FitchRatings @SPGlobal @Barclays @BlackRock @TIAA…
Read 15 tweets
A timely reminder for investors while #Adani is on its "charm-offensive". Only a fool would take Adani at its word. Here's a quick and by no means comprehensive thread of some notable lies from Adani. 🧵 @MSCI_Inc @MoodysInvSvc @FitchRatings @SPGlobal @TIAA @BlackRock @PIMCO
#Adani 🤥 no. 4080
Adani can’t keep its story straight about the size of its Carmichael #coal mine. The group has made many contradictory and misleading statements about the size of Carmichael, often changing its story depending on which audience it’s addressing. #StopAdani Image
#Adani🤥no. 4081
2021: Adani told @Vanguard_Group “they had capped the size of the (Carmichael) mine & intended to set an end date for operations to fit within the parameters of a 1.5°C warming scenario."
2022: Adani said they were expanding to 25-30MTPA.…
Read 13 tweets
During the last decade, fossil gas was cheap, in part because of the tight gas boom in the US.

For this reason, and to reduce GHG emissions (burning gas emits less GHG than burning coal), gas has been promoted in most 🇪🇺 countries, especially for electricity generation.

1/5 Image
This promotion of fossil gas presents two problems:
- First, the use of fossil gas is not compatible with our climate commitments. While it emits slightly less GHG than #coal (the extent of which depends on the origin of the gas), it is far from being a low-carbon energy;

- Europe's dependence on fossil gas constitutes a vulnerability in terms of security of supply: 🇪🇺 extractions have been declining for the last twenty years, making us structurally increasingly dependent on Russia and LNG imports.

Read 6 tweets
Govt policy announcement imminent around restricting #coal exports.

Sell the rumour buy the news please.


First cab $YAL
2nd child to be spanked by daddy govt $WHC
Read 3 tweets
Thought of the day: Calling yourself right when the return horse race is not past the 500 metre mark is premature to say the least. The extremely negative rear vision mirror often turns into 20 baggers. Knowing the difference is the key.
Top to bottom of high cyclicality situations are often -95% plus....

Bottom to Top of the most misread cycle bottoms can be >30x...

The closer to bankruptcy, the lower the cap near the cycle bottom, the higher the cycle return.

$BTU 80c to $40?
$RIG 65c to $20?
A startup turnaround in a peaking #coal market is a great case study to cut ones teeth on: $AHQ

Cap < $20m Vs Full NPV potential in 5yrs of > $2bn

Bleeding cashflow, looks terminal, can mgmt turn this around in the next 3-4 months?
- Dilution likely to extend the runway
Read 5 tweets

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