Thread by @DrEricDing

⚠️NEXT BIG ONE—CDC has royally screwed up—unreleased data shows #XBB15, a super variant, surged to 40% US (CDC unreported for weeks!) & now causing hospitalization surges in NY/NE.➡️XBB15–a new recombinant strain—is both more immune evasive & better at infecting than #BQ & XBB.🧵

2) Multiple models show #XBB15 is much worse in transmission R value and infection rate than previous variants — faster by LEAPS and BOUNDS. @JPWeiland did some the earliest models on #XBB15 watching data in NY. it has only grown worse nationwide.

3) in fact, when @JPWeiland first modeled #XBB15 before Xmas, the data shows XBB15 was 108% faster than the previously king #BQ1 variant. But with more data, XBB15 has further accelerated to now being 120% faster!

4) Regarding the data — notice that #XBB15 was not reported last week or any prior week! ➡️However, my source within the CDC information network let me know that the CDC somehow has not been reporting that XBB15 was over 1% for several weeks. CDC didn’t break it out as promised.

5) this exact incompetence at the CDC in not breaking out a new variant happened 2 months ago too… when I first warned about it—when the @CDCgov didn’t break out new variants over 1%. But this is now worse—XBB15 is going from unreported to 40% overnight on CDC website! (Soon??)

6) And indeed, my SCOOP on the @CDCgov’s unpublished data and disastrous reporting delay was indeed confirmed 2 months ago. I was told by sources that CDC’s leadership was upset at me for posting leaked data—they promised to do better. Now EPIC FAIL AGAIN!
open.substack.com/pub/drericding…

7) I previously warned about XBB from Singapore. But people need to realize #XBB15 is likely an American-originated recombination variant that is 96% faster (worse) than old XBB. The XBB15 popped up in the New York area in October and been causing trouble since.

8) New York has been suffering the largest #COVID19 hospitalization in almost a year. And it’s not coming down quickly like in recent waves Omicron waves. That’s because #XBB15 is not your typical Omicron - it’s a special recombination mixture variant that is further mutated.

9) Wastewater #SARSCoV2 virus concentrations are now the second highest of any wave— the highest since the initial Omicron wave, especially in the Northeast US. And it’s still climbing. Again, the poop 💩 data doesn’t lie.

HT @BiobotAnalytics

biobot.io/data/

10) So let’s validate this #XBB15-driving hospitalization surge hypothesis—where else in XBB15 now dominant? ➡️ In Connecticut. And is Hospitalization surging in CT recently? Yes.

11) Need more proof? Validate this #XBB15-driving hospitalization surge hypothesis—where else in XBB15 now dominant in New England? In Massachusetts. And is Hospitalization surging in MA recently too? Yes. Just like NY and CT. Three separate states — all #XBB15 dominant.

12) we know that #XBB15 is one of the most evasive variants known to date — it’s on par with our ability to neutralize distant cousin SARS1 from decades ago. That means it’s bad. But evading neutralization isn’t everything—it’s also about success in infection and binding cells…

13) Thus, if we look at the ability of #XBB15 in binding ACE2 cell receptor… XBB15 is much better (bad) in binding affinity to ACE2 than both old XBB & better than #BQ11. Note— Ba275, while good ACE2 binding, is not that evasive. ➡️XBB15 hence worse on 2 fronts!

HT @yunlong_cao

14) Let me translate the above for folks—#XBB15 is:

📌one of the most immunity-evasive variants to date

📌one of the best variants for entry and invading human cells.

📌Appears to spread much faster than old XBB or BQ

📌Causes hospitalizations wherever it’s dominant.

Got it?

15) Many people asking if the older Wuhan 1.0 or Bivalent Omicron vaccines will still work? I say that the #bivalent BA5 (used in US) & bivalent BA1 (used in UK) likely has some efficacy. But unclear how much because #XBB15 is a special recombination of BA2 strains—don’t know.

16) I’m going to pause for the night and update folks tomorrow. Hopefully @CDCgov will get their act together and release the startling #XBB15 data soon with more details. Because I’m staring at the shocking #XBB15 data—I can’t believe @CDCDirector hasn’t sounded the alarm yet!

17) I will update the post with more details soon. My posts on COVID are free. Getting scoops and CDC insider memos come at enormous personal resources and energy. Hope worthwhile for folks. Stay tuned for more. Please subscribe — FREE — for updates.
drericding.substack.com/subscribe

18) Typo in post #11 above— here are the correct #XBB15 variant surge and MA hospitalization pair. I had posted NJ’s #XBB15 with MA hospital by mistake. Here is also NJ’s #COVID hospitalization. All bad.

19) where else is #XBB15 being found in the US? All states bordering New York and in New England, but also beginning to be seen in the South and in California (which does a lot of sequencing).

@RajlabN has the best US variant dashboard— better than CDC! public.tableau.com/app/profile/ra…

20) How is #XBB15 surging in UK 🇬🇧?

➡️ Suddenly went from 0% to 4.3% in just one week! That’s a fast takeoff… expect it to be double digits next week.

HT @jneill

21) NEW—it seems #XBB has been found in China🇨🇳. The sequencing data (submitted by scientists there, not by the govt) shows #XBB1 is close to ~ 10% in Shanghai—but unclear yet if it’s #XBB15.

If it is #XBB15–it is so fast—it could swamp out any new China variant.

HT @dfocosi

22) #XBB15 is surging incredibly fast in the UK 🇬🇧 too…

HT @chrischirp

23) Wastewater #SARSCoV2 viral levels in both Northern Boston and Southern Boston now the highest since last winter’s Omicron. And it is still exponentially climbing.

HT @JuliaRaifman

24) the above wastewater is almost certainly #XBB15 — and same with the **doubling** of #COVID19 hospitalizations in MA in just 1 month. This #XBB15 surge will likely go global. That’s why XBB15 is already been nicknamed “The Kraken”. The WHO needs to give it a new Greek letter.

25) 📍CONFIRMED—at last, @CDCgov has posted the new bad #XBB15 variant numbers — and it seems they did it a day earlier than planned (their website says Dec 31st)—maybe it was under public pressure? ➡️The new data now confirms the wide spread of #XBB15 nationwide—Look at the map!

26) To be clear— #XBB15 is by far the “worst of both worlds” in terms of both existing immunity escape & binding to ACE2 receptor—allowing it enhanced ability infect human cells. This is why it is nicknamed “The Kraken” by @TRyanGregory - and called a super variant. Be vigilant.

27) Unreleased data on XBB15, a super variant that is more immune evasive and better at infecting, surged to 40% of US cases. SCOOP on the spread of this new #COVID19 variant's surge to 40% that went unreported by CDC for 4 weeks. (free to all subscibers)
drericding.substack.com/p/the-next-big…