1. This thread will reveal the details of how the #HealthyUserBias demonstrates that the #COVID19vaccines (at least used in the U.S.) have zero efficacy.
This will take a few days to complete...follow me on this one...make Big Data proud.
2. Here is the punchline up front: Using the @CDCgov's data for all 3.141 U.S. counties, the only correlation between vaccine uptake and COVID-19 mortality is fully explained by the fact that wealthier (healthier on average) people are more vaccinated.
3. "Oh, but how can that be...the trials said 95%...THE TRIALS!"
The trials were rushed past the obvious need to check to see if the vaccines themselves confounded PCR positivity.
roundingtheearth.substack.com/p/nonsensical-…
4. And you absolutely cannot ignore the implications of the @IamBrookJackson lawsuit in which @pfizer has chosen to hide behind the @DeptofDefense.
roundingtheearth.substack.com/p/brook-jackso…
5. Never forget the absurdly long list of ways in which data was hidden, obscured, or fabricated.
roundingtheearth.substack.com/p/hiding-the-t…
6. Now, we need a definition of the Healthy User Bias (HUB). Perhaps Wikipedia can help?
The Wikipedia is so short you'd think the topic were unimportant.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Healthy_u…
7. All we get from Wikipedia is a vague story that HUB "can damage the validity of epidemiologic studies" due to the fact that "subjects that take up an intervention, including by enrolling in a clinical trial, are not representative of the general population."
8. The Healthy User Bias (HUB) is the bias observed in medical intervention studies due to the recipients being healthier on average.
But could this HUB be behind all the apparent vaccine effictiveness (VE) that we see in retrospective analyses?
Yes. Yes, it can. From CDC data:
9. "If this were true, the experts would have told us so."
Oh, you're adorable.
I'm guessing that by "expert" that you mean Paul "Ten Mouse Minimum Testing Standard" Offit.
10. Paul is a big fan of something called the Vaccine Safety Datalink (VSD). The VSD was established in 1990, the same year that the Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System (VAERS) was established.
Is the VSD the oracle that tells us that the C19 vaccines are effective?
11. The VSD is a consortium of health providers in several states, almost half of which are Kaiser Permanente. This would seem to give the impression of a vast user database that would dodge confounders. Does it dodge HUB?
12. Not only does VSD not dodge HUB, it seems to be designed to enshrine it!
The VSD's own data on non-COVID mortality shoes extreme levels of HUB.
roundingtheearth.substack.com/p/proof-of-sta…
13. If you take the VSD, unadjusted and raw, it shows C19 quasi-vaccine recipients enjoying up to 72% lower mortality (depending on age bands) for non-COVID deaths!
Huh.
14. Here is a video presentation that I gave with @PanData19 a few weeks ago on how the HUB is behind an #EfficacyIllusion.
15. Now, let's break the HUB down into two pieces:
(a) Healthy vaccinee bias, and
(b) Confounding by indication.
This will help anyone performing a literature review.
16. These sound almost nothing like one another, but they describe something similar: variables that indicate a difference in health between two cohorts observed for an experiment.
17. Ideally, cohorts should mirror one another, but a high level of balanced risks is hard to achieve, and later I'll show how authorities rigged a heavy risk skew through #vaccinemandates.
18. Prior health variable: The healthy vaccinee bias describes the fact that (in aggregate) healthier people are more likely to seek vaccination. #Conscientiousness
psychologytoday.com/us/basics/cons…
19. Subsequent health variable: Confounding by indication describes the fact that people who seek a health intervention (vaccine or other) are more likely to take better care of their health moving forward. #Relieved to resume life again.
20. The difference between these data bias types is whether health effects from before or after the point of intervention confound the results.
Most often, I'll just wrap them up into the HUB. After all, the overlap is intuitively very high.
21. While that Wikipedia article was tiny, there is a substantial body of literature on HUB and its component biases. This systematic review of flu VE studies found HUB all over published research.
bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.11…
22. In a paper measuring HUB among seniors receiving flu vaccination (Jackson et al, 2006), HUB accounted for the entirety of VE.
academic.oup.com/ije/article/35…
23. Toby Rogers notes that the CDC only measures modest (8% to 14%) VE for flu vaccines recently. But is that real?
tobyrogers.substack.com/p/the-fdas-pro…
24. Toby points out...no, it's not. The CDC published (Delahoy et al, 2021) found #ZeroEfficacy among students at the University of Michigan (who would have more similar health profiles).
cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/7…
25. But wait! While recent influenza vaccines may have zero effectiveness in stopping the flu, one study (Hosseini-Moghaddam, et al, 2022) finds flu vaccination associated with lower risk for COVID-19!
jamanetwork.com/journals/jaman…
26. If you're thinking that no scientist worth their salt would suggest that vaccines are particularly effective at preventing completely different diseases consistently (hello VSD? Is this thing on?), know that eagle eyes are required to prevent such nonsense.
27. T Coddington also finds HUB all over #vaccine data. He has graphed serious indicators of poor health versus booster uptake showing much great dose administration in areas where the people are healthier.
inumero.substack.com/p/healthy-user…
28. More specifically, he firms up my claim that "wealth is health"! The association between booster uptake and median household income is the same as with life expectancy.
29. Here is another scatter plot with U.S. county data as of mid-August 2022 (Operation Uplift), this time with both axes rank-ordered (each number is ranked from 1 to the total number of counties, in strictly increasing order).
30. The lack of clustering in that rank-rank plot indicates little if any relationship between vaccination and COVID-19 case *growth*. The first derivative is a better indicator of relative rate VE than the case function itself!
31. That first derivative is similar to R, and even when we break this down (h/t Tim Snyder) by month, we see no trend for R with respect to vax status.
32. Now those studies showing similar viral loads between the vaccinated and unvaccinated populations (Riemersma et al, 2021) make sense, right? The antibodies aren't reducing COVID-19 mortality.
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
33. Obligatory reminder: antibodies aren't magic faerie dust.
roundingtheearth.substack.com/p/vrbpac-prese…
34. In Japan, researchers (Aug 2022 Med Check, Vol. 8, No. 24r) discovered two cases of data manipulation by the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare.
35. I'm still old enough to remember that time that the Society of Actuaries completely missed HUB embedded in the ecological fallacy in their own report. Good thing I'm here to correct them. @DowdEdward
roundingtheearth.substack.com/p/reanalysis-o…
36. "But the trials PROVED 95%"
Would you even know when rollouts occured if I didn't point to them on this graph?
37. And why did the military contractor SAIC pull their data shortly after posting it online? Data from within any one institution tends to correct for the HUB (like the Michigan flu vaccine VE study).
roundingtheearth.substack.com/p/the-saic-dat…
38. "But the international data..."
Wrong. Nation-by-nation analysis never looked good for the experimental quasi-vaccines from the start.
39. Check out this response by the ONS to several quality researchers who poked the ONS about problems in their data presentations...
40. The ONS admits that the sample they report publicly is skewed and biased. Leaving out more of the unvaccinated young furthers the effective HUB bias with respect to their numbers.
osr.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/correspondence…
41. The incentives are needed to sculpt the effect. Why 63%? Somebody computed the number ahead of time.
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