1/ 🧵on Albin #Kurti, Aleksandar #Vučić, the latest twists in the Franco-German 🇫🇷🇩🇪plan for #Kosovo 🇽🇰, the specter of upcoming elections in #Serbia, Lajcak gives Vučić a wedgie, and a fart explodes in Belgrade's elevator (figuratively speaking).
2/ Yesterday, EU envoy Miroslav #Lajcak visited Pristina, where he appears to have had a productive meeting with Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti. The "cat-that-swallowed-the-canary" look on Kurti's face indicates he is finally catching on to how the game is played.
3/ Kurti said: "We do accept the EU proposal for normalization of relations between Kosova and Serbia, and consider it a good basis for further discussion and a solid platform for moving forward."
4/ Kurti added: "Certain questions on international guarantees, implementation mechanisms and time sequencing will be addressed soon during the Brussels talks ahead. Democratic concepts of European orientation make us hopeful." Kurti is becoming a true diplomatic contortionist.
5/ Interestingly, Kurti made no public mention of the Association of Serb Municipalities (ASM), which is part of the Franco-German plan, and which has thus far been the third rail of Kosovo politics. However, his language implied he would accept some deal on this.
6/ In Belgrade this news exploded like a fart in an elevator. Serbia's president Aleksandar Vučić was particularly troubled. He had pinned his hopes on Kurti once again refusing the ASM, leaving Vučić having to do nothing, while looking like the good guy.
7/ Kurti's apparent and surprising acquiescence left Lajcak feeling victorious and Vučić in panic. When Lajcak visited on Monday, Vučić's body language was strained and he was clearly under pressure. Footage of the two was telling.
8/ Vučić looked as though the school bully had just given him a wedgie. Lajcak looked as though he had enjoyed giving Vučić the wedgie.
9/ Vučić realizes that his strategy of waiting for Kurti to shoot himself in the foot was no longer viable. This came on the heels of a two-day circus in the Serbian parliament, where Serb nationalists -- including Vučić -- raged about Kosovo and who was a traitor.
10/ In the parliamentary session, Vučić was able to portray himself to the West as the only viable politician to solve the Kosovo status issue. But he could do so only without presenting details of the Franco-German plan.
11/ Vučić is now cornered. The parliament won't support forward movement on Kosovo, and neither will public opinion or the SNS controlled media. The only possible exit ramp is either a referendum on the Franco-German plan or new parliamentary elections.
12/ In this scenario, Vučić's only exit is new elections. Why? Because a referendum would cause Vučić to lose in the eyes of the West. It would limit Vučić's maneuvering room.
danas.rs/vesti/politika…
13/ More importantly, new elections would buy time for Vučić. He will tell the West that he can't make any politically risky moves until after the elections, or he will lose the elections. This tactic has worked well in the past.
14/ If Vučić takes the early election option, they will likely be scheduled for September. Past practice has shown that Serbia is able to delay government formation for as long as 3 or 4 months after an election is certified.
15/ Vučić could delay government formation until the end of 2023 or perhaps early 2024. He hopes the intervening time will provide new opportunities to string along the West. And he will try to make the opposition and non-SNS parties take the blame for Kosovo.
16/ Yet last week's circus showed Vučić that he can't pawn the decision off on the parliament, especially the nationalists. It showed that he can't fob responsibility off on the smaller parliamentary parties, such as SPS, DSS, etc. So he will call early elections.
17/ Non-SNS parties sense blood in the water and are seeking ways to profit from Vučić's compromised position and his exposed position on Kosovo. They won't let Vučić make them take the blame while absolving himself of responsibility for Kosovo.
End of 🧵.
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