Thread by @vtchakarova

As the first anniversary of Russia's war against Ukraine approaches, I am eager to present a detailed thread 🧵exploring key geopolitical assessments and takeaways. Join me in this critical reflection on the war and its implications for Europe and the world. #Geopolitics 👇

Ukraine faces the difficult choice between war and complete subjugation. Each successful military counteroffensive improves the chance of regaining lost territories and achieving full territorial integrity and sovereignty, as recognized by the international community since 1991.

However, for Russia, the choices were limited to a short war that failed in the first phase, & a war of attrition, which is the current reality. To adapt to the new situation, Russia has resorted to mass mobilization of reservists & air bombing critical infrastructure in Ukraine.

The West's approach to the war still revolves around the binary option of war & peace, but the current escalation phase offers no prospect of negotiations peace talks. Despite European calls & manifests for peace, it's now a matter of winning or losing for both sides in this war.

In the current phase of escalation, Russia's objective is to gain control over the entirety of Donbas and disrupt the Ukrainian electricity, heating, and water supply system to reach a tipping point of the Ukrainian state through a hybrid approach.

To prevent Russia from winning in this critical phase of the war, it is not enough to provide the heavy weapons to Ukraine. There must also be a strategic consensus in Europe on the ultimate goal of enabling Ukraine to win the war and restore its territorial integrity as of 1991.

If Ukraine were to relinquish territories in Donbas, Zaporizhia, Kherson, or even Crimea due to appeasement politics in the West, this would not end the war. Instead, it would likely result in a temporary ceasefire and a flawed peace deal that Russia would eventually break.

If Russia achieves victory in this critical phase of the war, it will quickly push for a ceasefire and even peace talks. However, a premature peace agreement will only result in a temporary cessation of hostilities and set the stage for further aggression by Russia in the future.

Any legitimization of Russia's territorial gains, achieved through the use of force and nuclear blackmail, would not only constitute a defeat for Ukraine but also set a dangerous precedent. Moscow currently controls around 17% of Ukrainian territory in addition to Crimea.

Freezing the war will serve Russian interests by allowing Moscow to replenish its military & potentially launch further attacks not just in Ukraine, but also in other Eastern European states. Such a move will destabilize the region & undermine the security of Europe as a whole.

In the meantime, Russia will also play for time. Europe has not fully diversified its energy mix, so Moscow will continue to pressure Western decision-makers by weaponizing energy, food, and fertilizers (eg UN Grain initiative).

To achieve its geopolitical ambitions, Moscow aims to establish a union with Ukraine & Belarus, consolidating its sphere of influence & power projection. Subjugating Ukraine would allow Russia to revive a post-imperial great power state, improving its position in global politics.

Russia's geostrategic approach involves extending its geopolitical and geoeconomic interests vertically, from the Arctic Ocean and Barents Sea, across its "near abroad" in Eastern Europe and South Caucasus, and into Eurasia, West Asia, and North Africa.

Russia has been gradually shifting its center of gravity from interdependence with Europe towards Eurasia, South Asia (India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan), & the Indo-Pacific region. It has expanded its networks in Latin America & Africa by utilizing Soviet channels of influence.

Putin aimed to undermine the European security architecture & Eastern Europe's integration with the West & shift Russia's focus towards expanding its geopolitical influence in other regions such as South Asia, Eurasia, and the Indo-Pacific in the context of global power dynamics.

Russia aimed to position itself as an indispensable power, critical to the US-China competition in the long run. Neither wants to see Russia as a partner in the rival's bloc. Moscow seeks to leverage its strategic positioning in Eurasia, South Asia, and the Indo-Pacific region.

Russia has build a new modus vivendi of systemic coordination with China in key areas under sustained US pressure and ongoing Western sanctions since 2014. In fact, Russian President Putin would have not launched full-scale war against Ukraine if he had not fully relied on China.

The Russian narrative of launching the war against Ukraine to prevent NATO expansion was debunked when Sweden and Finland applied for membership. Russia's invasion of Ukraine was not due to its unilateral efforts to join NATO, but rather because it was not a NATO member.

Putin's ultimate goal is not just the subjugation of Ukraine, but the the creation of a union with Ukraine, Belarus, Transnistria, and the two breakaway republics in Georgia. He will impose a new European security order, if he succeeds in the war on Ukraine.

Therefore, it is in the best interest of Ukraine & Europe to prevent these plans from becoming a reality. Russia acts as the last remaining European empire and is making its final attempt to gain geopolitical relevance on the old continent and beyond.

The 30-year period of post-Cold War European Security Architecture is currently being threatened by Russia's actions. Russia also aims to exploit the current bifurcation of the global system, with two major blocs (the US vs. China) competing for control over global affairs.

The #Dragonbear is a tactical asymmetrical modus vivendi. If Moscow succeeds in Ukraine, it could redraw the security order while diverting attention away from China's rise. This would make Russia a junior partner of China but still provide it w/ significant influence in Europe.

Putin's attempts to capitalize on the current geopolitical context through his 3-dimensional approach suffered a major setback with the war vs Ukraine. Despite the full-scale war, Ukraine has managed to survive, and Russia's plans for a union state are far from being realized.

The non-kinetic war that Russia has waged against the European security order, including weaponization of commodities, cyber and hybrid operations, information warfare, nuclear blackmail, migration waves, & political turbulence within coalition governments, has ultimately failed.

One of Putin's miscalculations was underestimating the support for Ukraine from Europe. The only way to move forward is to provide the weapons delivery to Ukraine, along with the sanctions policy. It is also essential to reach out to international partners to bring them on board.

The global system dimension must also be considered. Moscow's goal was to significantly increase its role in the systemic rivalry between the US and China. At the same time, by initiating a full-scale war against Ukraine, Russia intensified the systemic conflict between them.

If we consider the period between the First and Second World War as only an interruption, the same can also be said for the period between the First and Second Cold War. The war launched by Russia is a clear manifestation of the beginning of the Second Cold War.

Key trends are the bifurcation of the global system, the mutual decoupling between the US and China in all strategic areas, tensions between China and India, shifting focus of the US towards the Indo-Pacific & ad hoc constellations of regional powers that don't want binary world.

Putin strategically strengthened the #DragonBear modus vivendi of coordination since 2014 and sought Xi's support before deciding to launch a full-scale war against Ukraine. He even waited until February 20, coinciding with the end of the Chinese Olympics, to make his first move.

Xi Jinping's intention in signing the "no limits" declaration with Putin was to create a counterbalance to the Alliance of Democracies and the Western boycott of the Olympics, rather than to enable Russia to launch a full-scale war against Ukraine.

Despite the American efforts to inform Beijing about the upcoming war, China did not withdraw its citizens from Ukraine prior to the beginning of the it, which suggests a lack of awareness about the real scale and scope of the planned military actions.

China and Russia have been working towards a mechanism of coordination for the past 8 to 10 years, and the current situation is the result of this ongoing process. Rather than a sudden shift in policy, the modus between them is a long-term strategy aimed at countering the US.

China and Russia are not involved in a strategic alliance or a marriage of convenience, as these western concepts do not fully capture the nature of their relationship. Rather, it is a temporary, asymmetrical partnership in which China holds the upper hand.

Despite this asymmetry, China and Russia share a common interest in creating a credible counterweight to American global power projection, which unites them geopolitically and geoeconomically.

Another common goal shared by China and Russia is the desire to stabilize and control the Eurasian landmass. To achieve this, they aim to establish connectivity and energy transport corridors as an alternative to the US-dominated maritime routes in the Indo-Pacific.

Another possible shared interest could be the facilitation of a new maritime route in the Arctic, given the developments related to climate change. Russia's geographical location could provide an entry point for China into the Arctic region.

Their common perception of the current state of international relations is that we are in a period of transition, following the end of the unipolar moment led by the US. This transitional phase is marked by volatility and chaos, leaving the future uncertain and unpredictable.

The question remains whether this phase will lead to a multipolar world or a bifurcation of the global system, characterized by a comprehensive decoupling between the United States and China. In either case, China requires a partner such as Russia to enhance its global standing.

Russia needs China to overcome international isolation and circumvent Western sanctions. Moscow can benefit from the increasing systemic decoupling between China and the US, as well as the escalating tensions btw China & India and the deteriorating economic relations with Europe.

Three takeaways:
1) While there may not be a direct military confrontation between the US, China, and Russia, competition will continue. (Cold War 2.0)
2) China is unlikely to launch a military attack on Taiwan.
3) It is unlikely for Russia to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine.