Thread by @althecat

#ExtremeWeather #Mozambique #Madagascar #Zimbabwe UPDATE THREAD

The Cyclone Freddy event which initiated a humanitarian emergency in South East Africa (exacerbating exisiting folldinghas now been underway for a fortnight and is ongoing. Freddy is expected to strengthen and… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

The quoted tweet in the OP above covers the period February 21-27.

This thread provides an update series of 24 hour satellite animations from 27th Feb till March 5th. But the event is not yet over. The latest UNHCR emergency reponse reliefweb.int/report/mozambi…… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

So far 1.75 million people have been affected - and 163,000 were affected as of March 3rd - when this [reliefweb.int/report/mozambi…[ report (the most recent) was issued.

The current model forecast simulation cluster shows Cyclone Freddy making a second crossing of the Mozambique channel - strengthening as it does and then heading west into Mozambique as it did before.

This animation shows the last 24 hours - Freddy is approaching the coast of Madagascar on a return journey and is now in roughly the same place that it was when it strengthened and made its first crossing of the Mozambique Channel.

1/8 : Cyclone Freddy - 24-25 February
Each image in this series is a 24 hour animation.

#ExtremeWeather #LossAndDamages #ClimateChange #Freddy #Mozambique #Madagascar

2/8 : Cyclone Freddy - 25-26 February
Each image in this series is a 24 hour animation.

#ExtremeWeather #LossAndDamages #ClimateChange #Freddy #Mozambique #Madagascar

3/8 : Cyclone Freddy - 26-27 February (Day 6)
Each image in this series is a 24 hour animation.

#ExtremeWeather #LossAndDamages #ClimateChange #Freddy #Mozambique #Madagascar

4/8 : Cyclone Freddy - 27-28 February (Day 7)
Each image in this series is a 24 hour animation.

#ExtremeWeather #LossAndDamages #ClimateChange #Freddy #Mozambique #Madagascar

5/8 : Cyclone Freddy - 28 Feb- 1 March (Day 8)
Each image in this series is a 24 hour animation.

#ExtremeWeather #LossAndDamages #ClimateChange #Freddy #Mozambique #Madagascar

6/8 : Cyclone Freddy - 28 Feb- 1 March (Day 9)
Each image in this series is a 24 hour animation.

#ExtremeWeather #LossAndDamages #ClimateChange #Freddy #Mozambique #Madagascar

7/8 : Cyclone Freddy - 1-2 March (Day 10)
Each image in this series is a 24 hour animation.

#ExtremeWeather #LossAndDamages #ClimateChange #Freddy #Mozambique #Madagascar

8/10 : Cyclone Freddy - 2-3 March (Day 11
Each image in this series is a 24 hour animation.

#ExtremeWeather #LossAndDamages #ClimateChange #Freddy #Mozambique #Madagascar

9/10 : Cyclone Freddy - 3-4 March (Day 12)
Each image in this series is a 24 hour animation.

#ExtremeWeather #LossAndDamages #ClimateChange #Freddy #Mozambique #Madagascar

10/10 : Cyclone Freddy - 3-4 March (Day 13)
Each image in this series is a 24 hour animation.

NOTE: While this brings us up to date #Freddy is not yet finished. Model guidance indicates a 180 o turn to a north easterly heading is now about to happen.

This will likely involve… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

Here is a 90 hour PWAT forecast, through till Thursday.

The storm it shows is a monster sized cyclone - 700kms across - strengthened by warm waters and atmospheric water PWAT in very high quantities - due to all the recent convection in the area & continued flows from the NE.

This view shows the full water vapour transport picture over the coming 16 days from the GFS model. It indicates extreme rains over Zimbabwe and parts of South Africa.

And finally a rainfall solution forecast over 16 days - same GFS3 run. This shows a lot of rain in central and Southern Africa - indicating widespread flooding over very large areas.

P.S. To help viewing - here's a large static image of the 16 day total rain forecast wich shows significant (flood potential rainfall) over:

Madagascar
Mozambique
Zambia
Malawi
Angola
Namibia
& Botswana.

The model shows Freddy's remnantsl exiting over South Africa.