Thread by @AbdullahKhan333

TTP's New Chapter: Thread
1/15
Last year, two smaller groups formerly aligned with the Afghan #Taliban joined #TTP. Led by Mullah Aslam Baloch from Noshki and Mazar #Baloch from #Makran. in 2023, two more smaller groups joined TTP. Today it announced new chapter in #Balochistan

2/15
This new 'Wilayah' will encompass the Kalat and Makran divisions of #Balochistan. It signifies the establishment of a proper organizational structure, becoming the second administrative unit of #TTP in Balochistan after Wilayah Zhob

3/15
Wilayah Zhob, operating in the Pashtun districts of #Balochistan, has been functioning under the command of Sirbakaf Momand. The @PICSSIsb Annual Security Assessment Report 2022 predicted #TTP's expansion plans into non-Pashtun areas of Balochistan.

4/15
Moreover, @PICSSIsb has revealed a decade-long operational nexus between #TTP and #BLA, which has gone largely unnoticed by CT experts. #TTP's operational expansion in #Balochistan adds complexity to an already turbulent security situation in the province.

5/15
In Balochistan, #TTP draws its manpower primarily from Baloch fighters who previously fought alongside Afghan #Taliban. These #Baloch fighters and commanders played a pivotal role in securing support for TTP from Taliban leaders in the southern #Afghanistan

6/15
While TTP was previously associated mainly with the #Haqqani network and #Taliban commanders along the KP/FATA border areas of #Afghanistan, it is now gaining more support from the #Kandahari faction of the #Afghan Taliban, which holds an unfavorable view of #Pakistan.

7/15
#TTP effectively exploits divisions among the #Taliban to its advantage. We may witness an influx of #Afghan fighters from southern #Afghanistan joining TTP, crossing over into #Pakistan, and launching attacks. KP is already facing Afghan Taliban fighters among TTP cadres

8/15
The safe havens for #BLA and other Baloch militants may soon resurface in southern #Afghanistan. Initial reports suggested that the #Taliban had dismantled some of these sanctuaries after gaining control, but later leniency was observed.

9/15
Interestingly, many of these Baloch fighters remained associated with #JUIF @juipakofficial of #PMD head @MoulanaOfficial linked Madrassas. After the fall of Kabul to the #Taliban, these religiously motivated Baloch fighters were perhaps overlooked by Pakistani authorities,

10/15
Another significant aspect of the growing religiously motivated militancy in #Balochistan is the influence of #AlQaeda. AQ's Takfeeri ideology has made inroads among #Taliban commanders in the south, and its south Asian chapter #AQIS too has strong roots in Balochistan

11/15
While #TTP has expanded its organizational chapters to ethnic #Baloch areas, there are already other religiously motivated players such as #DAESH and Tehreek e Jihad Pakistan #TJP. Jaish al-Adl, operating along the Pak-Iran border, has also become an irritant for #Pakistan

12/15
Worth noting is that Jaish al-Adl's main ally in #Balochistan was Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, which joined #DAESH in 2015. The recently emerged Tehreek-e-Jihad #Pakistan has also claimed responsibility for some recent attacks in Balochistan.

13/15 Overall situation in #Balochistan is more complex and threatening than KP or erstwhile FATA where #Pakistani forces primarily deal with #TTP, #DAESH and HGB group but in #Balochistan, they face the growing operational capabilities of TTP, along with the active presence of

14/15
#DAESH, #TJP, #AlQaeda, Jaish al-Adl, and sub-nationalist groups like #BLA, #BLF, #BNA, #BRA, #UBA, LEB, and others. #Balochistan requires greater attention from national security bosses as the province has witnessed more sophisticated and coordinated attacks recently

15/15
The security challenges in #Balochistan have become multifaceted and demand focused efforts to address them effectively. The arrest of Gulzar Imram is indeed a big achievement but not enough to defeat the complex security threat in the province.