Thread by @JoshuaCypess

225.01/ Week two-hundred and twenty-five, November 2-8, 2024, thread begins here.

Week 224 below.

225.02/ Finally dropped off our ballots this morning & took a selfie. A fun thing then happened: a young dad carrying a baby arrived after us & he said that it was his first time voting after becoming a citizen! So I insisted on taking a photo of him (with his camera). USA! USA!

225.03/ Yes, I'm the one who waited all Shabbas for the poll, taught my kids how polls work (social science PhD, baby) & what I hoped would happen (GOP leading by only 5). And they got to see my stunned elation in real time when I read the news.

225.04/ BTW, this is why I'm holding off condemning the American Public for this being a "close election" b/c we have no idea if it actually is! It's far more likely that the dudebros who run the MSM & polling are herding their results like academics have done vs. Jews & Israel.

225.05/ Very true.

225.06/ IMO the Selzer poll won't cool Democratic ardor to be "all gas no brakes." It confirmed that our efforts are working - vs. all MSM attempts to belittle us - and energizes us to keep canvassing (my family today in PA), donating & voting. We feel we can win this & win big!

225.07/ Look, I'd love to win Florida so we can all have an early night, but I'm told that it's unlikely.

But here's a thought: the GOP primary was closed & TFG only got 81.19%. If even half of his GOP opposition votes Dem, then would we win? Please?
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Flor…

225.08/ By all rights we deserve a 1980 in reverse: a historical page-turning in response to a decade of bad vibes (then: the doldrums of the 70s, now: the rancid thuggery of the incel-right). We're also in an economic boom! People have money, time & RAGE.

225.09/ I'm saddened but not surprised that GenX men are big for TFG. Why? Look at these electoral maps from 1980-1988. The suburbs were saturated with troglodyte jingoistic Reagan propaganda (Rocky 4, Rambo 3, etc.) & 12 years of unchecked gleeful dismantling of FDR & JFK.

225.10/ Another thing Selzer's poll showed is that the major dudebro pollsters & pundits who say that '24 was "Trump's race to lose" should be ignored until they repent. The economy is great, DJT lost in '20 as an incumbent & DOBBS. Qualitative research must precede Quant, guys!

225.11/ Bibi is almost Biblically bad. As in: if and when our era is written up by Mashiach the Navi, Netanyahu will sound like he stepped out of late Melachim Bet.

225.12/ If you haven't seen it, here's the full cold open of SNL last night:

225.13/ Excellent point. Glad to be in the center of the Venn diagram of the audience for this.

225.14/ My family just returned from canvassing in PA. We last did this in 2016. The vibes are totally opposite - it was a struggle 8 years ago but today was easy, friendly and fun. #HarrisWalz2024!

225.15/ Happy day, @internetarchive may be back online! I'm saving pages as we speak. Thanks guys for your tireless work, it's very appreciated.

225.16/ #ChochmatNashim for #LechLecha 5784 2023 (LAST YEAR). @ChochmatNashim

Downloadable PDF with working links with Divrei Torah by Orthodox women scholars on the parsha and other topics of the week. 18 pages.
drive.google.com/file/d/1XSse-X…

225.17/ For Sefer #Bereishit enthusiasts, here's my wide-ranging article that spans #LechLecha to the very end: "Agents of Mystery and the Mission of the Patriarchs" (Alei Etzion 5, 1996).
academia.edu/33159041/Agent…
or the original
gush.net/alei/5-6myst.r…

225.18/ Excellent thread by @JewishWonk about why he (like me) is supporting Harris. Please send it to those who are on the fence, it's cogently and solidly argued and I hope it will be persuasive.
First tweet: x.com/JewishWonk/sta…
Thread: threadreaderapp.com/thread/1853072…

225.19/ Barukh Dayan ha-Emet, Quincy Jones has passed. Oh, what a loss! I told my kids at breakfast that he may be the most important figure in post-war American music.

225.20/ I've held out hope for Tester based on the "Susan [expletive deleted] Collins Rule" - she was underwater in the polls by double digits yet won in '20. Why? IMO b/c small state incumbents must have vast structural advantages the polls don't measure.

225.21/ Just in time to calm us down: the newest video from Jen O'Malley Dillon. First 2/3 is her high level of confidence for a win plus a breakdown of when the votes will be counted. Last 1/3 is their lawyer saying they're prepared for GOP dirty tricks.

225.22/ IMO, both sides know that Harris will win if trends continue, but that's only if independents/3rd party types vote Blue (i.e. we need a 2020, not 2000/2016) which means Team Blue has to project only *guarded* confidence. It hurts my nerves but it's for a good reason.

225.23/ @magi_jay is spot-on as usual and this is a particularly brilliant point (about this election and comparing to 2016): "But we have PTSD; And our PTSD has stimuli, such as confidence."

I hadn't thought of it that way, but by gum she's right!

225.24/ I said it 4 years ago & 4 before that: today feels like we're landing at Omaha Beach; we're going into the fray to defeat unrepentant cackling fascism. And I'm proud to be fighting alongside former GOP, former Greens, and my mass of steady, normie libs. Let's go win this!

225.25/ When people predict a state flipping to the Democrats they add a BL(ue) to the beginning, like Blexas, Bliowa, Blohio etc. This always will remind me of this great Simpsons clip from "Simpson Tide" (captioned video below)
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson_T…

225.26/ I was worried about this and I'm so glad to read that - following a Biden pattern - the problem was anticipated and prepared for, and now handled, without any fanfare.

225.27/ Big thanks to @NealCoolong for answering my question about the big day today (trade deadline for the NFL, of course). I learned a lot. #HereWeGo

225.28/ Today feels like Yom Kippur; I've been davening hard, hoping that this great country (& the people of the world) will have a future.

It's a sad irony that caring about other people can hurt so much.

Please God, let Good win! #ElectionDay

225.29/ For some context about when to expect results tonight #Election2024
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1853935…

225.30/ Had a sleeplessness night last night and checked the news at 3:00 to see the dread was fulfilled. This feels like 2004 plus 1856 all rolled into one. I won't apologize for hoping for a better future or my despair at the future catastrophe. God have mercy on us all.

225.31/ We each cope in different ways; I'm trying to figure out how all the data I was being given was wrong. 3 sources that help me:
1) approval rating is king
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1854194…
2) the moderate usually wins
x.com/ArmandDoma/sta…
3) My complaint
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1854192…

225.32/ One thing I will commit to over the next years is maintaining and strengthening this coalition.

225.33/ I agree with this essay by @NGrossman81. As I said above: I don't regret thinking we could and should have better things. I won't let myself or others condemn compassion and justice. I pray that the deep pain I feel will help me to help others.

225.34/ Students of history know that there are major historical forces that feel like choices but are actually structural shifts. Sadly the US fell for the same trend as other democracies, but that's cold comfort given who won yesterday.
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1854214…

225.35/ I was able to talk to my kids/family about the election without being too emotional but mincha is coming & I don't know how I'm going to talk to God and not break down in desperation for the curses my country will now face. I need to ask for mercy in the face of such sin.

225.36/ We all have our music to help us through these dark periods. The song I've been listening to on repeat - organically, it just popped in my head as "I want to hear that" - is Metallica's "Hero of the Day."
metallica.com/songs/hero-of-…
youtube.com/watch?v=yrY2KE…

225.37/ I'm avoiding the articles about the worst-case scenarios of Trump (ym'sh) 47 b/c (a) I already know about them & (b) I'm certain his new voters don't want a king/dictator. I need info about how to prepare & stop each next step & not the apocalypse of it all succeeding.

225.38/ Democrats gave them bread and they voted for circuses.

(With all that entails: seeing victims get savaged violently for their entertainment. That's what won.)

225.39/ Basically, polling was massively off again, Selzer was off by a billion, and the Washington bellwether oracle was off. Yet the 2 clearest answers were ignored: (1) the massive anti-incumbent backlash & (2) the approval rating chart (below).

225.40/ This is absolutely true. Democrats can't be mean to entire groups like the other side.

But we can & must get better at hammering over & over how GOP policy leads to the misery of voters. Be relentless & ruthless about who is actually hurting them.

225.41/ A silver lining of 2024 vs. 2016 is that in the 8 yrs. since Hillary's run, the Democrats have built a huge farm system of great politicians & leaders. The first go around was exhausting b/c we needed direct democracy. Now? I have representatives all over to fight for us.

225.42/ For all those who think the Democrats need to stop being "too woke" & as such cater to bigots & misogynists etc.: why would we turn against & betray the people who voted for us this year?! Whoever is in the blue lines below need to be REWARDED. That is how you "politics"

225.43/ Agree, given this data. Harris saved as much of the country as she could. Her campaign was extraordinary and she deserves our gratitude.

225.44/ Shabbas is early now and this week was very long and very painful. It's all in God's hands and that means we are partners to help the helpless & seek justice against the cruel. Stay safe everyone & #ShabbatShalom.
@threadreaderapp please unroll.