Sam Korus Profile picture
Jun 7, 2018 4 tweets 2 min read Read on X
1/ Just 2:44 min long, but this interview w/ BAIC's chairman packs a lot in about #EV in China:
bloomberg.com/news/videos/20…
2/ My summary:
-He's surprised how quickly China opened up the auto space
- He thinks local players will face short term challenges from competition
- He thinks 1/3 of local automakers will be squeezed out of the business btw 2020-2022
- BAIC open to manufacturing for startups
3/ ARK's done some work suggesting #EV will consolidate the auto industry to a small degree, but that #autonomous cars could cause significant consolidation: ark-invest.com/research/autom…
4/ On that note, Honda and GM are partnering for next gen batteries, where Honda will source battery modules from GM automotiveworld.com/news-releases/…

My current thought is that to survive long term you will need to make your own battery pack, but open to hearing other views.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Sam Korus

Sam Korus Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @skorusARK

Mar 20
1/Here's a thread to send to people when they quote the media saying there is an EV slowdown. Add your comments/takes so it can be a useful resource.

Why is the media claiming an EV slowdown?
It's a case of missing the forrest for the trees.
2/Year over year EV sales growth is decelerating.
113% in 2021
59% in 2022
28% in 2023
That's the trees. It's the wrong thing to look at.

What should you look at? Image
3/Market share! Gas vehicle sales peaked in 2017.
And you know what happens with an adoption curve? Image
Read 7 tweets
Feb 6, 2023
1/A lot of people talking energy storage/megapack so here is a quick thread for those wanting to follow along/if you want to contribute:

ARK's 2019 analysis sizing the energy storage market at $800 billion, but bigger if battery prices go below $150/kWh ark-invest.com/articles/analy…
2/Another good resource to look at is Lazard's levelized cost of storage: lazard.com/media/451882/l…

It has their key assumptions:
3/Battery prices are becoming easier to pin down, but with large stationary projects it's important to look at the balance of system costs.

An old McKinsey piece has a dated look at that breakdown:
Read 6 tweets
Sep 14, 2022
1/Do we live in a linear world?

This is global battery electric vehicle sales.

The question is where do we go from here?
2/You can fit a diffusion curve to EV adoption quite well:
3/That diffusion curve suggests roughly 59 million EVs sold globally in 2027, which is in line with ARK's expectations.

A linear forecast of the past few years suggests ~21 million EVs sold globally and is in line with some other EV forecasts.
Read 4 tweets
Jul 29, 2022
1/@VitalikButerin Would love to discuss and share our modeling.

It ultimately comes down to a different business model and lower/negative electricity prices.
2/One instructive analogy could be a Hollywood Studio vs Amazon Prime.

Hollywood studio needs hits b/c that's its whole business. Looks at Amazon Prime spending as irrational on cost per viewership. But Prime is part of a suite of services.
3/If Prime video content attracts and retains marginal customers across its entire suite of services, which extend far beyond video streaming, then Amazon’s content spend—seemingly unprofitable from a Hollywood mogul’s perspective—is entirely rational.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 7, 2022
1/What is current demand for vehicles?

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey asks: Do you think the next 12 months or so will be a good time or a bad time to buy a new vehicle?

More people than ever said "Bad Time" going all the way back to 1961.
2/But automakers claim demand is strong and point to low inventory on dealer lots.

But is inventory on dealer lots? How much inventory is in people's driveways after buying a car to avoid public transport during COVID?
3/As semiconductors arrive, can selling a low number of cars quickly be linearly extrapolated to selling a high number of cars quickly?

There is also a shift in consumer preference towards electric vehicles. Will the incremental buyer want a gas-powered vehicle or an EV?
Read 6 tweets
Jan 21, 2022
1/2021 battery electric vehicle(BEV) thread with data from ev-volumes

The BEV market grew 112% yoy. It hasn't grown this quickly since 2012, which is pretty much the start of the modern BEV era

and it looks clear that incremental demand is for electric not gas powered vehicles.
2/There were roughly 4.8 million BEVs sold in 2021.
3/Micomobility is making its mark on the industry. The Wuling Mini EV went from selling ~123,000 units in 2020 to ~439,000 units in 2021.
Read 6 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(