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Sam Korus Profile picture
@skorusARK
Jun 7, 2018 • 4 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
1/ Just 2:44 min long, but this interview w/ BAIC's chairman packs a lot in about #EV in China:
bloomberg.com/news/videos/20…
2/ My summary:
-He's surprised how quickly China opened up the auto space
- He thinks local players will face short term challenges from competition
- He thinks 1/3 of local automakers will be squeezed out of the business btw 2020-2022
- BAIC open to manufacturing for startups
3/ ARK's done some work suggesting #EV will consolidate the auto industry to a small degree, but that #autonomous cars could cause significant consolidation: ark-invest.com/research/autom…
4/ On that note, Honda and GM are partnering for next gen batteries, where Honda will source battery modules from GM automotiveworld.com/news-releases/…

My current thought is that to survive long term you will need to make your own battery pack, but open to hearing other views.

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More from @skorusARK

Sam Korus Profile picture
Mar 20
1/Here's a thread to send to people when they quote the media saying there is an EV slowdown. Add your comments/takes so it can be a useful resource.

Why is the media claiming an EV slowdown?
It's a case of missing the forrest for the trees.
2/Year over year EV sales growth is decelerating.
113% in 2021
59% in 2022
28% in 2023
That's the trees. It's the wrong thing to look at.

What should you look at? Image
3/Market share! Gas vehicle sales peaked in 2017.
And you know what happens with an adoption curve? Image
Read 7 tweets
Sam Korus Profile picture
Feb 6, 2023
1/A lot of people talking energy storage/megapack so here is a quick thread for those wanting to follow along/if you want to contribute:

ARK's 2019 analysis sizing the energy storage market at $800 billion, but bigger if battery prices go below $150/kWh ark-invest.com/articles/analy…
2/Another good resource to look at is Lazard's levelized cost of storage: lazard.com/media/451882/l…

It has their key assumptions:
3/Battery prices are becoming easier to pin down, but with large stationary projects it's important to look at the balance of system costs.

An old McKinsey piece has a dated look at that breakdown:
Read 6 tweets
Sam Korus Profile picture
Sep 14, 2022
1/Do we live in a linear world?

This is global battery electric vehicle sales.

The question is where do we go from here?
2/You can fit a diffusion curve to EV adoption quite well:
3/That diffusion curve suggests roughly 59 million EVs sold globally in 2027, which is in line with ARK's expectations.

A linear forecast of the past few years suggests ~21 million EVs sold globally and is in line with some other EV forecasts.
Read 4 tweets
Sam Korus Profile picture
Jul 29, 2022
1/@VitalikButerin Would love to discuss and share our modeling.

It ultimately comes down to a different business model and lower/negative electricity prices.
2/One instructive analogy could be a Hollywood Studio vs Amazon Prime.

Hollywood studio needs hits b/c that's its whole business. Looks at Amazon Prime spending as irrational on cost per viewership. But Prime is part of a suite of services.
3/If Prime video content attracts and retains marginal customers across its entire suite of services, which extend far beyond video streaming, then Amazon’s content spend—seemingly unprofitable from a Hollywood mogul’s perspective—is entirely rational.
Read 4 tweets
Sam Korus Profile picture
Feb 7, 2022
1/What is current demand for vehicles?

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey asks: Do you think the next 12 months or so will be a good time or a bad time to buy a new vehicle?

More people than ever said "Bad Time" going all the way back to 1961.
2/But automakers claim demand is strong and point to low inventory on dealer lots.

But is inventory on dealer lots? How much inventory is in people's driveways after buying a car to avoid public transport during COVID?
3/As semiconductors arrive, can selling a low number of cars quickly be linearly extrapolated to selling a high number of cars quickly?

There is also a shift in consumer preference towards electric vehicles. Will the incremental buyer want a gas-powered vehicle or an EV?
Read 6 tweets
Sam Korus Profile picture
Jan 21, 2022
1/2021 battery electric vehicle(BEV) thread with data from ev-volumes

The BEV market grew 112% yoy. It hasn't grown this quickly since 2012, which is pretty much the start of the modern BEV era

and it looks clear that incremental demand is for electric not gas powered vehicles.
2/There were roughly 4.8 million BEVs sold in 2021.
3/Micomobility is making its mark on the industry. The Wuling Mini EV went from selling ~123,000 units in 2020 to ~439,000 units in 2021.
Read 6 tweets

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