Tom Clark Profile picture
Jul 10, 2018 3 tweets 2 min read Read on X
#Kavanaugh is almost surely to the right of #Roberts, and #Kennedy was almost surely to the left of Roberts. In 5-4 decisions with a liberal outcome, Roberts and Kennedy voted together 28% of the time. In 5-4s with conservative outcomes, they voted together 85% of the time. 1/n
The consequence is that we should expect more conservative outcomes, as those 28% of the 5-4 liberal outcomes that hinged on Kennedy's vote would have been decided conservatively with Kavanaugh instead of Kennedy. 2/n
This is not to say that there will be a 28% decrease in liberal outcomes. Lawyers will bring different cases, and the justices will pick different ones to hear. But, there will be a type of case--those that split Kennedy and Roberts--that are going to be decided differently. 3/3

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More from @tom_s_clark

Sep 22, 2020
Very soon, @realDonaldTrump is going to announce a pick for #SCOTUS. Journalists will jump al over it and start using social science data to make claims about how conservative the justice is compared to others. Here are some predictions. 1/8
First, people will rely on measures of the nominee’s conservatism that are about the president who last appointed the nominee to the Court of Appeals (I’m assuming it will be a current CoA judge), rather than measures of things the judge has done or said herself. 2/8
Second, as we all know, lots of data suggest that the parties are polarizing. That means past presidents look more moderate than do current politicians. That may or may not be true in the real world, but it’s almost guaranteed to be true in the data they use. 3/8
Read 11 tweets
Sep 11, 2020
The 11th Circuit has ruled that, despite Floridians’ amendment of their constitution to allow felons to vote after serving their sentence, that the GOP governor can prevent them from voting by imposing a poll tax.
The issue is whether the state can require ex-felons to pay all of their fines and court fees before registering to vote. That clearly conflicts with the spirit of Amendment 4 and is without a doubt a poll tax.
It is particularly important to note that this policy will mean furhter disenfranchisement of poor felons as compared to wealthy, white-collar felons.
Read 5 tweets
May 28, 2020
So, I think the whole Trump executive order thing is really just another example of Trump not understanding the structure of government, the role/powers of the executive, and the kind of chaotic, blustering, attention-shifting strategy he often uses. But... 1/N
Doesn't it seem that there is a really glaring set of consequences to Trump that would follow if the account from @nytimes about his intended order is accurate? nytimes.com/2020/05/28/us/… In particular, he wants to remove protections online platforms have against liability. 2/N
If I were Twitter, and I were worried about liability from the content of a user's post, wouldn't one of my first moves to be to block Trump from posting? He often posts libelous content and promotes conspiracy theories. 3/N
Read 8 tweets
Feb 14, 2020
Here's the thing. Judicial nominations are inherently political activities. So, this is not surprising. What should be upsetting, though, is the willingness of people like @senatemajldr to blatantly claim to establish precedents he plans to violate himself if they ever bind. 1/n
@senatemajldr Norms of political cooperation aren't necessary for government to work. But, in our country, some institutions have been more norm-driven than others, and the system has come to depend on faithful adherence to precedent in many settings. 2/n
@senatemajldr I am not arguing the Senate needs to be precedent-bound or norm-adherent. But, I do think it is important that when political leaders take an action on the grounds they are establishing a democracy-reinforcing principle, they adhere to them when they create constraints. 3/n
Read 9 tweets
Jan 27, 2020
Today, I had to call @Apple to advise them of a billing error they made. They apologized but explained they could not credit my account until I confirmed the last four digits of my phone number from 2007. 1/n
@Apple When I told them I didn't know it, they told me the last 2 and asked me to complete the 4-digit number. I still couldn't remember. They insisted there was nothing that could be done. In order to protect my security, I had to know the full 4-digit number. 2/n
@Apple I explained that there were only 100 possible numbers to complete the 4-digit number. I asked if I just started with 00 and counted up, would the representative tell me when I got it. He said, "of course." 3/n
Read 4 tweets
Sep 26, 2019
I just flew from Atlanta to Austin on a @Delta flight. Which meant I was surrounded by people watching #FauxNews. A couple of observations: 1/n
First, that propaganda channel is referring to whistleblowing as “leaks”. Isn’t it important that whistleblowing is a formal government procedure? I guess not if your goal is to misinform voters. 2/n
Second, they are showing endless video and audio of former democratic presidents talking to foreign leaders, to make the case that presidents appropriately pressure other govts to take action. This is an important part of the @GOP strategy to beware. 3/n
Read 5 tweets

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