#Kavanaugh is almost surely to the right of #Roberts, and #Kennedy was almost surely to the left of Roberts. In 5-4 decisions with a liberal outcome, Roberts and Kennedy voted together 28% of the time. In 5-4s with conservative outcomes, they voted together 85% of the time. 1/n
The consequence is that we should expect more conservative outcomes, as those 28% of the 5-4 liberal outcomes that hinged on Kennedy's vote would have been decided conservatively with Kavanaugh instead of Kennedy. 2/n
This is not to say that there will be a 28% decrease in liberal outcomes. Lawyers will bring different cases, and the justices will pick different ones to hear. But, there will be a type of case--those that split Kennedy and Roberts--that are going to be decided differently. 3/3
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