Thread by @skabooshka

Over the course of this week, I've gathered data indicating that Tesla is producing model 3s at a rate of ~4k/wk.

But I believe there are also plenty of shenanigans going on at the Fremont factory.

About two months before announcing "delivery hell", Tesla began bypassing car haulers altogether. Rather than hauling six or seven cars at a time, Tesla began using contractors to drive cars individually from factory to destination -- i.e. lots, delivery centers, service centers.

First, the illegality. Dealers transporting cars on public roads must use license plates issued to them. Tesla uses often uses none. Note no license plate in the front, nor the back, nor the windshield. Authorities have been notified.

As the quarter has unfolded, this mode of transportation has increased significantly.

See below the finished vehicle lot, where cars are being driven out. Meanwhile, nearly a half-dozen haulers are idle on this very lot (not pictured).

Here, two comments.

a) This unusual mode of moving inventory began shortly after Musk demanded that all expenses >$1M be signed off by him personally, and after logistics vendors began complaining about not receiving payment.

b) This unusual mode of moving inventory has accelerated as key members of Tesla's logistics and deliveries team have resigned.

a + b = cash crunch + organizational disarray

So Tesla is possibly transporting cars illegally as they cannot afford using conventional logistical channels and as their logistics team has been subject to an exodus. What does that matter? Well, this is only half of the equation. Here's the second half.

Tesla inventory can now be seen ENTERING the Fremont factory facility via haulers. See below haulers moving cars into the finished vehicle delivery lot. This is the lot where car VINs are matched with carriers and assigned their eventual destinations.

Here is an example of a model 3 driven back into the factory itself.

This is one example of many in which already manufactured units that were presumably sent out for delivery find their ways back to Fremont and into the factory.

Consider this unit below, with Lathrop levels of dirt and desiccated grime. It was hauled in from 680 S. It lingered in Fremont for a few days, its VIN underwent processing, and it was driven out. This, like other such cars, was not subject to repair or inspection.

So, the Fremont factory is no longer a place where units are simply sent out for delivery or storage. It is now a place where cars are re-processed and re-sent and without the proper licenses. Meanwhile, customers are finding their VINs are being inexplicably re-assigned.

One wonders about the creative accounting and production reports the above can occasion. FWIW my data indicates that Tesla is manufacturing model 3s at ~4k/wk, but I'm not sure that the EoQ delivery report will disclose this number.

https://twitter.com/skabooshka/status/1038173548215394304

Given the above, I will not be surprised if Tesla finds a way to report a number closer to ~ 5.5k/wk — such a number would continue the "ramp" narrative that was re-iterated in the statement that the BoD just disseminated.

We saw this last quarter. I disclosed that ~4,969+ M3 at the EoQ wk, w/ photos of the model 3 glut lingering in the factory. To meet the 5k number, Tesla invented "Factory Gated".

https://twitter.com/skabooshka/status/1013505533511270400

I'll conclude by noting that the company that invented "factory gated" — and then audaciously claimed that their reports were always about "factory gated" units — has misled investors again and again. At what point do we start questioning their production disclosures?

P.S.

https://twitter.com/skabooshka/status/1035589195102707712