FORCE MAJEURE
I believe that Tesla Model 3 production has been impaired for the last several weeks due to a severe supply chain disruption having to do with the shortage of Silicon Carbide MOSFETs supplied by STMicroelectronics out of their Malaysia plant.
I believe that Tesla Model 3 production has been impaired for the last several weeks due to a severe supply chain disruption having to do with the shortage of Silicon Carbide MOSFETs supplied by STMicroelectronics out of their Malaysia plant.
The critical material found in the model 3 power inverter is Silicon Carbide, a semi-conductor particularly suitable for EVs due to its size and thermal performance at high voltages.
systemplus.fr/wp-content/upl…
systemplus.fr/wp-content/upl…
Model 3 power inverters are composed of 24 power modules, each of which are composed of two Silicon Carbide MOSFETs. Tesla is the first EV manufacturer that uses a full Silicon Carbide power module. Pics of SiC MOSFET (1) and inverter below (2). 
STMicroelectronics, which manufactures the SiC component for the Model 3 inverter recently publicized the strong demand for SiC products during its Q2 CC. That's a good thing, right?
But since at least July, there's been serious disruptions of SiC supply out of China. According to suppliers: “It’s taking almost twice the time it normally takes to have material shipped”. (And who else soaks up global supply of SiC? The largest EV market in the world, China.)
Don’t believe me? Related parts from STMicroelectronics’ website:
SCT20N120: manufacturing delays reported
SCT30N120: manufacturing delays reported, Factory Lead-Time: 53 weeks
SCT50N120: manufacturing delays reported, Factory Lead-Time: 26 weeks
Notice a pattern? example:
SCT20N120: manufacturing delays reported
SCT30N120: manufacturing delays reported, Factory Lead-Time: 53 weeks
SCT50N120: manufacturing delays reported, Factory Lead-Time: 26 weeks
Notice a pattern? example:
To understand the scope of the problem, note that STMicroelectronics isn't the only supplier challenged by the SiC supply chain. Rohm semiconducter, Mouser, and Cree are each also challenged.
So, to sum it up, a global shortage of Silicon Carbide is disrupting Tesla's ability to manufacture its drivetrain. We are seeing the effects of this in Fremont, where the production of vehicles has been extremely slow for several weeks now.
To make this problem even more acute for Tesla, note that RWD back-orders are largely filled. Tesla is now producing the AWD/P versions of the Model 3 - each of which requires twice as many SiC inverters.
As for Elon Musk’s apparent perseveration during the Q2 CC, is it beginning to make sense as to why he was so fixated on a force majeure event?
Much, much respect to @temp_worker - ridiculously scary-good researcher/analyst - and @phoennix10 - all-around auto manufacturing genius - who did serious work verifying this thesis. Seriously in awe of the collaboration I've so much enjoyed on this website.
