Sam Korus Profile picture
Nov 2, 2018 10 tweets 3 min read Read on X
1/ Worth reading or listening to the Musk interview with @karaswisher. Touches on #Tesla #SpaceX #TheBoringCompany recode.net/2018/11/2/1805…

Here are some pulled quotes:
2/ On Twitter" "It feels like dipping into the flow of consciousness of society."
3/ "There have been many attempts to create a car company and they have all failed...Ford and Tesla made it barely through the last recession. There’s a good chance Ford doesn’t make it in the next recession."
4/ "You know, I think we’ll get to full self-driving next year. As a generalized solution, I think. "
5/ "Well I can’t talk about the details, but it’s gonna be like a really futuristic like cyberpunk, “Blade Runner” pickup truck."
6/ On the Space Force "... I actually like the idea. I think it’s cool. You know, like, when the Air Force was formed, there was a lot of like pooh-poohing, and like, “Oh, how silly to have an Air Force!” You know, because the aircraft in World War II were managed by the Army.
7/ "...it was wildly panned as a ridiculous thing to create the Air Force, but now everyone’s like, “Obviously you should have an Air Force.” And I think it’s gonna become obvious that we should have a Space Force, too."
8/ Key question for the Boring Company “Well, is your tunneling machine power-limited or thermally limited?” This was a very obvious question from a physics standpoint. Nobody knew. "
9/ "the first step is simply jacking up the power like crazy, and then automating the placement of the tunnel reinforcements,"
10/ "I don’t know, there was some people in the studio who wanted to make a scooter, but I was like, “Uh, no.”
...
"Electric bike, I think we might do an electric bike, yeah."

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More from @skorusARK

Mar 20
1/Here's a thread to send to people when they quote the media saying there is an EV slowdown. Add your comments/takes so it can be a useful resource.

Why is the media claiming an EV slowdown?
It's a case of missing the forrest for the trees.
2/Year over year EV sales growth is decelerating.
113% in 2021
59% in 2022
28% in 2023
That's the trees. It's the wrong thing to look at.

What should you look at? Image
3/Market share! Gas vehicle sales peaked in 2017.
And you know what happens with an adoption curve? Image
Read 7 tweets
Feb 6, 2023
1/A lot of people talking energy storage/megapack so here is a quick thread for those wanting to follow along/if you want to contribute:

ARK's 2019 analysis sizing the energy storage market at $800 billion, but bigger if battery prices go below $150/kWh ark-invest.com/articles/analy…
2/Another good resource to look at is Lazard's levelized cost of storage: lazard.com/media/451882/l…

It has their key assumptions:
3/Battery prices are becoming easier to pin down, but with large stationary projects it's important to look at the balance of system costs.

An old McKinsey piece has a dated look at that breakdown:
Read 6 tweets
Sep 14, 2022
1/Do we live in a linear world?

This is global battery electric vehicle sales.

The question is where do we go from here?
2/You can fit a diffusion curve to EV adoption quite well:
3/That diffusion curve suggests roughly 59 million EVs sold globally in 2027, which is in line with ARK's expectations.

A linear forecast of the past few years suggests ~21 million EVs sold globally and is in line with some other EV forecasts.
Read 4 tweets
Jul 29, 2022
1/@VitalikButerin Would love to discuss and share our modeling.

It ultimately comes down to a different business model and lower/negative electricity prices.
2/One instructive analogy could be a Hollywood Studio vs Amazon Prime.

Hollywood studio needs hits b/c that's its whole business. Looks at Amazon Prime spending as irrational on cost per viewership. But Prime is part of a suite of services.
3/If Prime video content attracts and retains marginal customers across its entire suite of services, which extend far beyond video streaming, then Amazon’s content spend—seemingly unprofitable from a Hollywood mogul’s perspective—is entirely rational.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 7, 2022
1/What is current demand for vehicles?

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey asks: Do you think the next 12 months or so will be a good time or a bad time to buy a new vehicle?

More people than ever said "Bad Time" going all the way back to 1961.
2/But automakers claim demand is strong and point to low inventory on dealer lots.

But is inventory on dealer lots? How much inventory is in people's driveways after buying a car to avoid public transport during COVID?
3/As semiconductors arrive, can selling a low number of cars quickly be linearly extrapolated to selling a high number of cars quickly?

There is also a shift in consumer preference towards electric vehicles. Will the incremental buyer want a gas-powered vehicle or an EV?
Read 6 tweets
Jan 21, 2022
1/2021 battery electric vehicle(BEV) thread with data from ev-volumes

The BEV market grew 112% yoy. It hasn't grown this quickly since 2012, which is pretty much the start of the modern BEV era

and it looks clear that incremental demand is for electric not gas powered vehicles.
2/There were roughly 4.8 million BEVs sold in 2021.
3/Micomobility is making its mark on the industry. The Wuling Mini EV went from selling ~123,000 units in 2020 to ~439,000 units in 2021.
Read 6 tweets

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