Midterms are done, at least as far as contribution to campaigns are concerned. There have been several looks at spending by the far right groups, specifically Empower Texans. I think they are seeing part of the picture, but not the whole enchilada. This will be the enchilada.
When I define ET World, it's three categories of donors to Texas elections
The first category of donor in ET World is
(ET) = Empower Texans PAC, Texans For Fiscal Responsibility PAC, and Texas Right To Life PAC #txlege
Continuing the levels of ET World
The second category of donor is
(ET9) = The 9 largest donors to the Empower Texans PAC.
These 9 donors make up 97% of the ET PAC, 96% of the TFFR PAC, and 78% of TRL. This overwhelming funding to the 3 PACs is why all three are flagged as ET
Continuing the levels of ET World
The third category of donor is
(ETR) = These are donors who give almost exclusively to candidates funded by the ET level (following a lead), OR it's the campaigns themselves, moving money between the various campaigns
Now, let's detail each category. (ET)
Empower Texans PAC was the largest single donor to both Texas Senate and House races from 01/01/17 - 10/27/18. They gave to 44 different candidates.
Wins - 17 ($1,292,941)
Loses - 27 ($3,015,073)
Overall spend - $4,308,104 #txlege
(ET)
Texas Right To Life PAC, from 01/01/17 - 10/27/18 gave to 41 different Texas House & Senate candidates.
Wins - 14 ($238,534)
Losses - 27 ($1,192,872)
Overall spend - $1,431,406 #txlege
(ET)
Texans For Fiscal Responsibility PAC, from 01/01/17 - 10/27/18 (this PAC really just started in July 18, but doing full date range for consistency) gave to 9 different Texas House & Senate candidates.
Wins - 3 ($20,000)
Losses - 6 ($507,800)
Overall spend - $527,800 #txlege
Totaling up the entire (ET) category, Empower Texans, Texas Right To Life and Texans For Fiscal Responsibility, they contributed $6,267,219 to Texas House and Senate races
$1,551,475 to winning races
$4,715,744 to losing races
75% going to races that did not succeed #txlege
The next level in ET World is (ET9). Let's remind everyone who those biggest 9 individual donors are to Empower Texans
Tim Dunn
Farris Wilks
Dan Wilks
Kyle Stallings
Mayes Middleton
Dick Saulsbury
Holloway Frost
Darlene Pendery
Monty Bennett
97% of ET is these 9 people #txlege
(ET9)
Mayes Middleton contributed the most from 01/01/17 - 10/27/18 giving to 7 different Texas House & Senate candidates. This one is first because Middleton spent $1.7 million on his own race.
Wins - 5 ($1,771,192)
Losses - 2 ($7,500)
Overall spend - $1,778,692 #txlege
(ET9)
Farris Wilks is second on the ET9 list, from 01/01/17 - 10/27/18 giving to 20 different Texas House & Senate candidates.
Wins - 14 ($536,729)
Losses - 6 ($142,500)
Overall spend - $679,229 #txlege
(ET9)
Darlene Pendery is 3rd on the ET9 list, from 01/01/17 - 10/27/18 giving to 28 different Texas House & Senate candidates.
Wins - 8 ($145,500)
Losses - 20 ($312,000)
Overall spend - $457,500 #txlege
(ET9)
Kyle Stallings is 4th on the ET9 list, from 01/01/17 - 10/27/18 giving to 28 different Texas House & Senate candidates.
Wins - 6 ($62,000)
Losses - 22 ($154,500)
Overall spend - $216,500 #txlege
(ET9)
Tim Dunn is 5th on the ET9 list, from 01/01/17 - 10/27/18 giving to 19 different Texas House & Senate candidates.
Wins - 13 ($147,000)
Losses - 6 ($56,500)
Overall spend - $203,500 #txlege
(ET9)
Dick Saulsbury is 6th on the ET9 list, from 01/01/17 - 10/27/18 giving to 12 different Texas House & Senate candidates. This excludes his kids, who gave a lot too.
Wins - 6 ($57,500)
Losses - 6 ($68,000)
Overall spend - $125,500 #txlege
(ET9)
Dan Wilks is 7th on the ET9 list, from 01/01/17 - 10/27/18 giving to 16 different Texas House & Senate candidates.
Wins - 12 ($60,258)
Losses - 4 ($57,500)
Overall spend - $117,758 #txlege
(ET9)
Monty Bennett is 8th on the ET9 list, from 01/01/17 - 10/27/18 giving to 14 different Texas House & Senate candidates. This excludes the giving by MJB Operating and Violet Verbena, both are Bennett.
Wins - 9 ($23,500)
Losses - 5 ($32,000)
Overall spend - $55,500 #txlege
(ET9)
Holloway Frost is 9th on the ET9 list, from 01/01/17 - 10/27/18 giving to 5 different Texas House & Senate candidates. This excludes giving by Kathaleen Wall, Frost's wife.
Wins - 3 ($25,000)
Losses - 2 ($30,000)
Overall spend - $55,000 #txlege
Totaling up the entire (ET9) category, those people who have ALREADY given large amounts to Empower Texans, they contributed $3,689,179 to Texas House and Senate races
$2,828,679 to winning races
$860,500 to losing races #txlege
Now you have the $6,267,220 that the ET category spent, PLUS the $3,689,179 the donors to ET, the ET9 category spent.
ET, TFFR, TRL and their 9 biggest donors spent $9,956,399 on Texas House and Senate races from 1/1/17 - 10/27/18.
$4.3m winning
$5.5m not winning #txlege
The third and final category / level I define as ET World are the ET Related donors (ETR). Remember, these are donors who give almost exclusively to ET candidates. You might see a stray donation to a non-ET person, but that's it. I'll call out most of them below.
(ETR)
Dan Patrick's campaign, from 01/01/17 - 10/27/18, gave to 20 different Texas House & Senate candidates. Dan The Man gave to mostly ET backed folks, and spent the bulk in the Senate.
Wins - 15 ($747,062)
Losses - 5 ($198,691)
Overall spend - $945,753 #txlege
(ETR)
Jonathan Stickland's campaign, from 01/01/17 - 10/27/18, gave to 27 different Texas House & Senate candidates. Stick was a veritable laundry of funds, albeit not an overly successful one.
Wins - 9 ($42,743)
Losses - 18 ($194,917)
Overall spend - $237,660 #txlege
(ETR)
Stacy Hock, from 01/01/17 - 10/27/18, gave to 38 different Texas House & Senate candidates. Hock is a major advocate for school choice, looking to privatize public dollars, monetizing kids.
Wins - 17 ($87,500)
Losses - 21 ($135,000)
Overall spend - $222,500 #txlege
(ETR)
New Leadership PAC, from 01/01/17 - 10/27/18, gave to 5 different Texas House candidates. New Leadership went a big 0 for 5. Yikes! Guess they aren't backing the new leaders that Texas actually wants.
Wins - 0 ($0)
Losses - 5 ($203,103)
Overall spend - $203,103 #txlege
(ETR)
Kathaleen Wall, from 01/01/17 - 10/27/18, gave to 9 different Texas House & Senate candidates. Wall ran for US Congress, but lost in the primary. She is married to Holloway Frost (ET9)
Wins - 8 ($125,000)
Losses - 1 ($10,000)
Overall spend - $135,000 #txlege
(ETR)
Don Huffines Campaign, from 01/01/17 - 10/27/18, gave to 7 different Texas House & Senate candidates. Huffines gave most of it to his brother, Phillip, who lost in the primary.
Wins - 1 ($5,000)
Losses - 6 ($123,800)
Overall spend - $128,800 #txlege
(ETR)
Constituents Focus PAC, from 01/01/17 - 10/27/18, gave to 13 different Texas House candidates. 84% of their contributions went to losing campaigns
Wins - 5 ($19,098)
Losses - 8 ($101,255)
Overall spend - $120,353 #txlege
(ETR)
Windi Grimes, from 01/01/17 - 10/27/18, gave to 10 different Texas House & Senate candidates. Grimes is a director of the Texas Public Policy Foundation, a legislative arm of Empower influence.
Wins - 5 ($27,500)
Losses - 5 ($71,627)
Overall spend - $99,127 #txlege
(ETR)
Michael Olcott, from 01/01/17 - 10/27/18, gave to 18 different Texas House & Senate candidates. Olcott is a retired biochemist, and deeply tied to Empower philosophies.
Wins - 9 ($45,000)
Losses - 9 ($37,500)
Overall spend - $82,500 #txlege
(ETR)
MJB Operating and Violet Verbena, from 01/01/17 - 10/27/18, gave to 5 different Texas House & Senate candidates. These are both Monty Bennett (ET9), just giving via a different vehicle.
Wins - 2 ($43,300)
Losses - 3 ($31,000)
Overall spend - $74,300 #txlege
(ETR)
Briscoe Cain's Campaign, from 01/01/17 - 10/27/18, gave to 19 different Texas House & Senate candidates. Briscoe had no challenger in the primary or general, so pushed money around.
Wins - 8 ($23,205)
Losses - 11 ($13,300)
Overall spend - $36,505 #txlege
(ETR)
Texans For Vaccine Choice PAC, from 01/01/17 - 10/27/18, gave to 31 different Texas House & Senate candidates. This PAC is mostly grassroots, but has recently seen big investment by ET9 & other ETR.
Wins - 14 ($7,325)
Losses - 17 ($26,800)
Overall spend - $34,125 #txlege
(ETR)
NE Tarrant County Tea Party PAC, from 01/01/17 - 10/27/18, gave to 22 different Texas House candidates. They had a miserable record on candidates, only winning 14% of the races they backed.
Wins - 3 ($6,667)
Losses - 19 ($23,130)
Overall spend - $29,797 #txlege
(ETR)
Jeff Sandefer, from 01/01/17 - 10/27/18, gave to 4 different Texas House candidates. Sandefer is someone who made a lot of money in oil and gas and now advocates for school choice / vouchers.
Wins - 1 ($5,000)
Losses - 3 ($16,000)
Overall spend - $21,000 #txlege
(ETR)
Texas Home School Coalition PAC, from 01/01/17 - 10/27/18, gave to 6 different Texas House & Senate candidates. The past cycle, this PAC was very ET. It wasn't leveraged as much in 2018.
Wins - 1 ($2,000)
Losses - 5 ($16,000)
Overall spend - $18,000 #txlege
(ETR)
The next few ETR are other ET funded campaigns. I won't scorecard them, but just list who was giving, and the pics list who they gave to.
- Ken Paxton
- Matt Shaheen
- Matt Rinaldi
- Matt Krause #txlege
(ETR)
And even more ET funded campaigns giving to other ET campaigns. I won't scorecard them, but just list who was giving, and the pics list who they gave to.
- Bill Zedler
- Bo French
- Tony Tinderholt
- Jonathan Boos
- Jeff Leach
- Valoree Swanson
- Matt Schaefer #txlege
Let's total up everything I have flagged as ETR contributions.
Overall dollars contributed to campaigns from 01/01/17 - 10/27/18: $2,495,658
$1,234,785 toward wins
$1,260,873 toward, well, not wins. #txlege
Ok, all three categories, ET, ET9 and ETR make up ET World. What did they contribute to Texas House & Senate races from 1/1/17 - 10/27/18?
ET - $6,267,220
ET9 - $3,689,179
ETR - $2,495,658
ET World Total - $12,452,057
I do want to make sure I remind folks that Mayes Middleton spent $1.7m of his own money on his TX House race. That inflates the ET9 and ET World win pools quite a bit. If you exclude this large self funding exercise, ET World dropped approx $3.9m on wins, $6.8m on losses. #txlege
The $12m is an incredible amount of money to come from a small group of people, funding a small group of candidates. They want you to think they are a majority of Texans. I know better. Hopefully you do too.
As we enter the full on crazy primary season, endorsements from various groups will start popping up in your social media feed, in your local papers, and overloading your mailbox. It's important to understand who the money is behind these groups, who is conducting the orchestra.
One of the groups rolling out endorsements is Texans for Lawsuit Reform, who have been big players in Texas politics for a bunch of years. Since 1/1/2011, this group has contributed $24,678,603 to 375 different campaigns at all levels. #txlege
According to Drew Darby, who received his endorsement on January 8, Texans for Lawsuit Reform is pushing to make sure our legal system "remains efficient, effective, and fair for all Texans", which is parroting what TLR said in their endorsement. Is TLR pushing for all Texans?
I’ve had many requests to look at Federal level races. I may still look at individual races in the process, but I probably won’t go “all in” the way I have with Texas politics. That said, I am going to start tracking some Federal level PACs.
The money being spent on federal PACs is more than insane. And I think people need to understand who is funding those PACs. So, I’ve put together this new tool with a few PACs to get it started.
The set-up is fairly straight forward
- Drop down to select the PAC (or don’t it you want it all combined)
- US map with dots on cities (click on a dot to filter results)
- Treemap at the bottom with scaled States (click to filter results)
- Donor list
The campaign finance site owned by Empower Texans did a look back at the 2018 elections on 12/18/18. The question they asked was “Who’s Really Buying Texas?” #txlege
The site (again, owned by ET) pushes this “Context matters” point, but then provide a fairly skewed context. They mashed all of the dollars spent in campaigns into one massive bucket. Then they point to themselves and say “see, we didn’t give that much”. #txlege
By rolling everything up together, they obfuscate the reality that a handful of large donor groups DOMINATE the political landscape in certain races. It’s not the everyday Texans that drive our politics. #txlege
Pulling out a longer term lens and graphed a few things since 2008. It's striking how things are escalating.
Long term lens #1: Empower Texans
This is total contributions in, by year, and the major donors. Remember, election cycles are 13-14, 15-16, 17-18. Big funding surge when Paxton & Patrick run. Can we stop with any talk that ET is grassroots? It's not now, and never was. #txlege
Long term lens #2: Wilks Brothers
This is total contributions made, by year, who they gave to. Pay attention folks.
2012 cycle - $106,500
2014 cycle - $908,955
2016 cycle - $3,344,734
2018 cycle - $5,197,988 #txlege#txed
How did ET World do last night? Here are the pie charts for the TX House and Senate, with all contributions going to ET backed candidates from those in the Empower Texans orbit from 05/23 - 10/27/18. Green are winners. #txlege
Some big plays that didn't get winners in the TX Senate. Who were the ET World backers for Konni Burton in SD10 from 5/23 - 10/27/18? Who were the backers for Don Huffines in SD16? #txlege
Some big plays didn't get winners in the TX House either. Who were the ET World backers for Matt Rinaldi in HD115 from 5/23 - 10/27/18? Who were the backers for Deanna Metzger in HD107? And what about Jonathan Boos in HD113? And let's include Lisa Luby Ryan in HD114 too. #txlege
Just to close out the vote totals from Early Voting, what will follow is 2014, 2016 and 2018 EV totals (and % of registered voters casting a ballot) from the 15 biggest Texas counties.
Early Voting in Harris County
2014 - 375,227 (18.19%)
2016 - 977,279 (43.73%)
2018 - 855,710 (36.59%) #Midterms2018
Early Voting in Dallas County
2014 - 215,147 (17.88%)
2016 - 549,643 (42.7%)
2018 - 529,521 (39.66%) #Midterms2018