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The Reckoning 💥 @sethjlevy
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1/ I want to deal with the question, did Flynn lie? I am going to approach it from a big picture perspective. The question has different answers depending on the context. I’ll deal first with the current legal matter.

However there’s a bigger more significant context.
2/ The currently pending charge is simply based on what was asked and answered in the FBI interview. The biggest problem we have is that we haven’t seen the original 302 so we are void of details. We now know Flynn realized there was a recording and mentioned that to McCabe.
3/ So, against that backdrop, does it seem likely he spoke with the FBI agents and contradicted what he knew was on the tape? Seems unlikely. Unless he was concerned that by answering truthfully attention would move to Pence. That’s the one reason that makes any sense to me.
4/ Did Flynn tell the truth in the interview? Is he now lying about lying in an attempt to protect his family? Sadly I find it hard to believe we will ever know. In fact if he is sentenced it reduces the likelihood that we will ever know.
5/ OK so that being dealt with I want to focus on the aspect of this that is much more interesting and significant IMO. Did Flynn lie to Pence? Bigger than that is, why was there a descrepency between what Flynn did and what Pence said on a Sunday news show about what Flynn did?
6/ To revisit broadly. The transition determined it would be important to communicate with Russia. They call Flynn who is not in town (a clue) and ask him to make the call. Flynn makes the call and reports back on what happened.
7/ Subsequently when Pence is asked if sanctions were discussed on that call he says no. How does he know? Flynn told him. This proved not to be true. Flynn “lied”.
8/ Now let’s put a little more meat on the bones. First let’s go back further. Now keep in your mind that the “collusion theory” says Russia helped Trump win so they would get favorable treatment from his administration. How did they help him? Many ways including hacking emails.
9/ Through 2016 we see Trump “bait” the idea that he likes Russia and Putin. After the RNC and at the height of the Clinton camps Russia hyping, Trump asks Russia to find Hillary’s emails. All the while Flynn is advising Trump. He knows how DOJ is likely to react.
10/ Also place into the context that Trump and Flynn have been motivated to drain the swamp. Each in their own way witnessed the corruption and how it was weakening America. The swamp is deeply entrenched. The normal hiring and firing wouldn’t drain it.
11/ Here you have two master strategists. One a three star general and former head of DIA. What do they know? To defeat an enemy first you have to draw them out so they can be seen. That we know as much as we do about CH and DOJ/FBI corruptIon is a testament to these two men.
12/ Back to the transition. Trump ran the end of his campaign focused on drain the swamp. Do you really think they never discussed how they’d do that? Is it likely the former head of DIA who was animated by rooting out Obama corruption didn’t devise a strategy to accomplish it?
13/ So the fact that Flynn is out of town when the transition decides it is important to call Russia isn’t coincidental. It allowed for Pence to claim he only knew what was discussed based on what Flynn told him. They knew the Obama team would hear the call and know the details.
14/ Anyone with half a brain would know that Flynn would discuss the sanctions and the Israel vote. Russia backed down and didn’t respond as they normally would. This was bait impossible for team Obama to ignore. It was predictable that a report would surface about Flynn’s call.
15/ So Pence goes on the Sunday show and lies. He says the sanctions weren’t discussed. The interviewer, again completely predictably, asks how he knows and Pence says because Flynn told him. The trap is now set.
16/ I want to set as part of the background here that this entire situation parallels Benghazi, just as the Trump Russia investigation parallels Hillary’s mid-year exam. It exposes without question that DOJ was driven by political bias. How did DOJ respond to Rice’s lie?
17/ We know how DOJ responded to Pence’s lie. They sought to interview Flynn. This wasn’t a surprise to Flynn. He set THEM up. So now we know he has a conversation with McCabe and asks why do I need to meet with FBI agents since I know that you know what happened on the call.
18/ Remember the key question here. Who was investigating who. Does the WH supersede DOJ or does DOJ supersede the WH? Can the WH investigate DOJ? I will submit that this is a question not fully answered yet. I’m arguing it was McCabe who was being targeted.
19/ How did McCabe respond to Flynn’s question? Corruptly, of course. He said not to worry it was just a few questions, nothing serious, no need for attorneys. What does that imply? Flynn isn’t an FBI target. But he obviously was. However he was also acting NSA to POTUS.
20/ So Flynn meets with the agents, answers their questions & nearly immediately Yates is on the phone with McGhan. Again a completely predictable next step. One the WH would’ve seen coming from a mile away. She lays out her concerns and McGhan says thank you, I’ll call you back.
21/ Then we see McGhan treat Yates as a target. He doesn’t respond telling her what to do or what the WH will do. He responds with a set of very telling questions. Chief among them and first asked, why do you care if one admin official lies to the other? Remember Benghazi?
22/ Then McGhan asks if there is even any underlying crime? Of course DOJ wasn’t going to prosecute. So now he basically accuses DOJ of a conspiracy to entrap the WH. Then he tells Yates to put up or shut up. Show us your cards.
23/ I’m going to wrap this up for now. I just want people to understand that the much more interesting question isn’t whether Flynn lied. It’s why did Flynn lie. That tells you much more about the full picture we are seeing right now.
24/ It gives you a clue as to what may have been discussed in the Oval Office the night before Mueller was appointed. Was Mueller read in? Was Rosenstein read in before he was nominated on 2/1/2017?
25/ We have been asked to be patient. It’s been hard. We will know a lot more soon. When you step back and look at things the picture clarifies. Maybe I’m completely wrong. Maybe the deep state has Trump boxed in. I doubt it.

@threadreaderapp please unroll.
26/ Addendum: After I wrote this thread yesterday afternoon, the judge forced Mueller to release the original 302s. He clearly aligned his responses to what he “told Pence”. So to that end Flynn “lied” to the FBI.

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