1/ The origin of what would be called Microsoft Excel [original code name Plan 2.0 and then Odyssey] can be traced to a retreat at the Red Lion hotel in Bellevue in October of 1983. Bill Gates, Jeff Raikes, Doug Klunder, Jabe Blumenthal, Pete Higgins and others were there.
2/ Microsoft Multiplan version 1.00 for MS-DOS shipped on August 1, 1982 and had a valuable feature called re-calc. In 1981 there were about 70 or 80 different personal computer architectures (e.g., 6502, Apple II, Z80, CPM/80, MS-DOS, CPM/86). Mutliplan ran on all of them.
3/ January 20, 1983 Lotus shipped 16-bit 1-2-3, which finished a short fiscal year with about $53 million in revenue. The three key features of Lotus 1-2-3 were: faster spreadsheets, bigger spreadsheets and built-in business graphics, all of which were well mapped to the IBM PC.
4/ Bill Gates: “Multiplan targeting the 8-bit machines was a huge error. When we talk about, 'Are we aiming too low, in terms of system requirements,' we often think: 'Is this another case like Multiplan?' because it was a great product, but the basic strategy was wrong."
5/ In 1984 a controversial decision was made to focus Excel on graphical user interface which meant the first target for Excel wouldn't be PC character user interface. but rather the Apple Macintosh. Bill Gates: “We picked the Mac and they didn’t. They just didn’t do it.” 1989
6/ Bill Gates: “At [the] time [Microsoft committed to the Macintosh] we decided our app strategy would be to emphasize the Macintosh and win there, then roll back to the PC when graphical interfaces become popular.” InfoWorld, January 29, 1990
7/ Jeff Raikes: “Lotus Jazz was going to ship a little before Excel so we were trying to fend it off and so we put together a bundle of Microsoft Word, Microsoft File, Microsoft Chart and Microsoft Multiplan.” The "first version of Microsoft Office was in January of 1985."
8/ 1-2-3 was doing so well on DOS that making Mac the first bet with Excel and doing Windows later was low downside but big upside. "Porting code to other platforms always took longer than many people thought. People forget how long it took to create an integrated Office suite."
9/ My favorite DM response: "People forget how audacious the decision was. Mac wasn’t selling well, had a black and white tiny screen, etc." But just matching 1-2-3 wasn't the right decision. The best decision was the big upside but small downside bet on Excel on the Mac.
10/ Since enough people liked this thread more detail: IBM considered the Motorola 68000 for the first IBM PC (which Apple would later use in the Mac). Bill Gates argued in favor of the 68000. IBM chose Intel since the Motorola was too expensive and 68000 wasn't really ready.
11/ When "the Excel on Mac before IBM PC" decision was made by Microsoft the 286 based PCs were thought to be too slow for Windows to run well. Windows needed the 386. Putting Microsoft developers on the Mac moved them along the learning curve on doing graphics applications.
12/ The exclusive given to Apple was for a limited period and the delay in the Mac shipment meant the period was quite short anyway. Excel was a depth application; Works was for breadth users. Not trying to create all on one applications like Symphony enabled Microsoft to focus
13/ Originally APPL was going to pay MSFT a $10 per MAC shipped royalty but that ended when MSFT convinced APPL that they needed third party developers. So MSFT was able to direct to end customers on the Mac. A "switcher" was created to allow shifting between applications.
14/ Did Motorola gift the market to Intel by not pricing the 68000 lower as was done with DOS vs CP/M? Did Motorola not take:
(1) demand elasticity; and
(2) the fact that they were creating a pricing umbrella for competitors,
into account?
15/ IBM's decision to go with Intel rather that use Motorola's 68000 for the PC is 1) any interesting and important part of history; and 2) an example of "Rashomon effects" in that some people who were actually involved remember events in different ways. I must be very careful.
16/ Charles Simonyi describes the importance of Xerox PARC and Bob Taylor who “wrote the first check for ARPANET [and then at PARC] was responsible for the personal computer, at least the first personal computer. ...He was a great people collector.” archive.computerhistory.org/resources/acce…
17/ A history of Xerox PARC is here: parc.com/about-parc/par… "the world’s first bit-mapped display, graphical user interface with windows and icons, WYSIWYG (What You See is What You Get) editor, local area network/file storage, and commercial mouse." + Ethernet & laser printer.
18/ The Alto PC was first conceived in December 1972 by PARC’s Butler Lampson as described in this memo: history-computer.com/Library/AltoMe… One person called his Alto PC a “gozunda” as in “it goes under the desk.”
19/ Simonyi, Lampson and other colleagues created the first WYSIWYG text editor at PARC. Bravo software ran on Alto machines which were not affordable for mass markets. An initial run of 80 units was produced by Designlabs. Chuck Thacker said just Alto’s BOM was $12K.
20/ Simonyi: "2001 [A Space Odyssey] was a new film and the displays there had a big impact on me. I also remember some science fiction I read in the late '50s that described CAD-CAM, which is a form of WYSIWYG." The phrase was borrowed from Flip Wilson's routine on "Laugh In."
21/ Simonyi: "I realized I was a snob was when I saw VisiCalc running on an Apple machine. The word processing programs [at the time] I never took seriously because we were so much better on the Alto. But when I saw VisiCalc I said 'wow'."
22/ “Jobs kept saying that he couldn’t believe that Xerox had not commercialized the technology. “You’re sitting on a gold mine,” he shouted. “I can’t believe Xerox is not taking advantage of this.” Page 97 amazon.com/Steve-Jobs-Wal…
23/ Bill Gates: “Xerox did a poor of taking commercial advantage... because its machines were expensive… Translating great research into products that sell is still a big problem for many companies." Page 58 amazon.com/Road-Ahead-Bil…

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More from @trengriffin

Feb 20
1/ Being on a board of directors with @wolfejosh has been an amazingly enjoyable and educational experience. He's always prepared, informed, contributes and has fun.

Josh believes: "edge can derive from informational, analytical or behavioral sources." 25iq.com/2018/07/07/les…
2/ If you work on a team that runs a business you can acquire an edge versus people who only invest and don't have your source of edge.

"To make money, you must find something that nobody else knows, or do something that others won’t do."

Peter Lynch 25iq.com/2013/07/28/a-d…
3/ One of my sources of edge is the ability to value certain businesses by using DCF analysis. That's what anyone running a business learns to do. If you do this for decades you get better at it.

Is it easy? No. Can I do every company? No. Do I have an edge in doing it? Yes.
Read 6 tweets
Feb 19
1/ Charlie Munger: "We invested money in China. I feel about Russia the way Gundlach feels about China. I don’t invest in Russia so I can’t criticize Gundlach’s point of view. I reached a different conclusion. If he’s nervous, he doesn’t have to join us." junto.investments/daily-journal-…
2/ "On balance, we prefer the risks we have to those we’re avoiding and we don’t mind a tiny little bit of margin debt. When you buy Alibaba, you do get sort of a derivative. But assuming there’s a reasonable honor among civilized nations, that risk doesn’t seem that big to me."
3/ Charlie Munger: "We’ve gotten an absence of world wars for a long time because we had these nuclear weapons. But it does make you nervous every once in a while and it’s quite irresponsible when the leaders in the modern age get tensions over border incidents and so forth."
Read 50 tweets
Feb 3
1/ Informing a reader by telling stories is the approach taken in this new book on venture capital. It's is easier to convey an idea like:

"Venture capital is not even a home-run business. It's a grand-slam business." Bill Gurley

if you tell a story. amazon.com/Power-Law-Vent…
2/ Free book excerpt at: penguinrandomhouse.com/books/580120/t…

"Most people think improbable ideas are unimportant, but the only thing that's important is something that's improbable."

Don't pitch an incremental category that is: "one sheet of toilet paper, not two." penguinrandomhouse.com/books/580120/t…
3/ A recent example of how stories work as a teaching tool is Morgan Housel's book The Psychology of Money. The huge sales of Morgan's book are an example of a power law at work. He wrote a grand slam. If you want more readers or viewers, tell more stories.infiniteloops.libsyn.com/tren-griffin-w…
Read 4 tweets
Feb 2
"Starlink Premium users can expect download speeds of 150-500 Mbps and latency of 20-40ms, enabling high throughput connectivity for small offices, storefronts, and super users across the globe" starlink.com/premium
This is a new Starlink service apparently aimed at non-residential customers.
Mobile capacity management is harder.

"The first premium deliveries will begin second quarter. Unlike the standard product, which only guarantees service at a specific service address, SpaceX says Starlink Premium is capable of connecting from anywhere." cnbc.com/amp/2022/02/02…
Read 4 tweets
Jan 31
Do food delivery companies that spend this much on customer acquisition have issues around product/market fit? Or are they trying to acquire scale economies and benefit from a positive feedback loop?

Subsidized goods or services aren't COGS, but instead are in-kind CAC.
Andy Rachleff: “You know you have product/market fit if your product grows exponentially with no marketing. That is only possible if you have huge word of mouth. Word of mouth is only possible if you have delighted your customer.”
Until a delivery business establishes superior liquidity, it is vulnerable. Part of liquidity is more delivery people available which is a function of more transaction volume. Density of transactions can generate positive feedback. You're at the mercy of your stupidest competitor
Read 4 tweets
Jan 31
1/ Brian Arthur: "Complexity economics sees the economy as not necessarily in equilibrium, its decision makers (or agents) as not super-rational, the problems they face as not necessarily well-defined and the economy not as a perfectly humming machine."
nature.com/articles/s4225…
2/ "Complexity economics assumes that agents differ and that they have imperfect information about other agents. The resulting outcome may not be in equilibrium and may display patterns and emergent phenomena not visible to equilibrium analysis." nature.com/articles/s4225…
3/ "Because assumptions are a widening of the neoclassical ones, complexity economics is neither a special case of equilibrium economics nor an addition to it. Complexity economics sees the economy not as mechanistic, static, timeless and perfect but as organically."
Read 4 tweets

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