Excl: Woefully underprepared Tories will lose a snap general election and Corbyn will be PM of a rainbow coalition - bombshell internal party assessment thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/82…
Also; ex-No10 adviser and @ukonward director Will Tanner’s new research: “It would take a tiny swing for Labour to sweep dozens of seats to become the largest party – with 40 Conservative constituencies held with a majority of just 5 per cent or smaller”
Senior Govt minister claims Tory vote collapsing in middle class Remain areas: “If you knock on a door and they have books on their shelves, you can be pretty sure these days they’re not voting Tory”.
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Rumours abounding of an imminent Quad meeting to discuss imposing Plan B as early as tomorrow morning, meaning Working From Home and covid passports for large venues. One source tells me it's "85% likely". Let's see. One helluva dead cat.
I've put this to Downing Street, who have not denied it. No10 source simply says "no decisions have been made".
There is disquiet about how quickly this decision process is moving in Whitehall. I’m told the Covid Taskforce is yet to even submit papers to the PM and Health Sec on Plan B, which were due later in the week. A source tells me: “Boris decided to do it last night”.
FCDO's head, Sir Philip Barton, admits it was a mistake for him to remain on holiday through out the Afghan crisis. He only returned to work on August 26, 11 days after Kabul fell. Tells FAC: "I have reflected a lot. If I had my time again, I would have come back earlier”.
This is the first time Barton has revealed the date he returned to the Foreign Office. The last US military flight left Kabul on August 30, meaning Sir Philip stayed on holiday through almost the whole of the desperate three week airlift. This is simply staggering.
Tory MP Alicia Kearns, a former civil servant who has worked in FCO crisis centres, asks Barton: “If this isn’t what failure looks like, what does?”
Raab at FAC: asked why he didn't do more to build a new coalition to replace the US in Afghanistan? A key question. Raab evades saying what personal efforts he made to insist it was never doable anyway. “Nobody was going to backfill the capacity that the US provided”.
Raab goes on to say Afghanistan has effectively been a failed mission for years. "At what point did we last have the military objectives identified and the exit strategy to achieve them?" Once it's realised it's a mission without end, the decision must be to pull out, he argues.
Tugendhat immediately hits back to ask: "What is the US’s exit strategy from South Korea?" Raab appears stumped: “I don’t know that”. But then insists the analogy is false.
Dominic Raab appears before the Foreign Affairs Committee at 2pm tomorrow for a special session. Bitterly criticised for FCDO as well as personal failings, the bottom line is the Afghanistan debacle was on his watch so he will be fighting for his job. Here's what to expect (1)
Many of the questions MPs will put to Raab were put to Boris Johnson when Parliament was recalled, but still remain unanswered. They split into three parts. 1. The Past, and the almost total failure to prepare for the US pull out despite years of warning. Could the UK...(2)
...have stayed on by building a new alliance, and why wasn’t the hasty evacuation better planned? 2. The Present: what can be done now for the legitimate evacuees who didn’t make it out of Kabul? At least 1,000 are eligible under UK schemes but are still there. Many more...(3)
Commons recall debate on Afghanistan: MPs will now sit for an extra 3 hours until 5pm today, as so many want to speak.
PM immediately bombarded with interventions. Asked by Tobias Ellwood whether he will agree to an independent inquiry into UK’s involvement in Afghanistan? Johnson signals no - “many of the questions have already been answered” - to heckles of anger from MPs on both sides.
Johnson says he spoke to UK ambassador in Kabul Laurie Bristow this morning: “The situation has stabilised since the weekend, but remains precarious. At the moment, the Taliban are allowing the evacuation to go ahead”.
Boris Johnson's statement to a recalled Parliament tomorrow on Afghanistan is a very big moment. He has huge calls to make overnight to define UK foreign policy in light of Biden's 'America First' paradigm shift. I've talked to MPs. Here are 8 questions they want him to answer:
1. What historical perspective will the PM overlay on why the 20 year mission ended in catastrophe? There is bitter Cabinet disagreement. Ben Wallace’s sadness over the West failing Afghanistan, or Dominic Raab’s proposition that nation building was long doomed?
2. How does he account for the dramatic Western intelligence failure that didn't foresee the Afghan government collapse so quickly that he and his Foreign Secretary were caught short on holiday? The failing that created this week's pandemonium and international embarrassment.