Boris Johnson's statement to a recalled Parliament tomorrow on Afghanistan is a very big moment. He has huge calls to make overnight to define UK foreign policy in light of Biden's 'America First' paradigm shift. I've talked to MPs. Here are 8 questions they want him to answer:
1. What historical perspective will the PM overlay on why the 20 year mission ended in catastrophe? There is bitter Cabinet disagreement. Ben Wallace’s sadness over the West failing Afghanistan, or Dominic Raab’s proposition that nation building was long doomed?
2. How does he account for the dramatic Western intelligence failure that didn't foresee the Afghan government collapse so quickly that he and his Foreign Secretary were caught short on holiday? The failing that created this week's pandemonium and international embarrassment.
3. Could Johnson personally have done more to avert this week's disaster? Knives are out for Raab's Foreign Office across Whitehall on this. There is deep anger that Ben Wallace was alone in trying to assemble a coalition to take the departing US’s place...
...I'm told the FCDO had no interest in joining the MoD effort to find only an extra 3,000 troops and accompanying air power that would have replaced the US's footprint, despite ample warning. One scathing senior official describes Raab as “a low grade, risk-averse lawyer”.
4. Fresh questions tonight about whether the government's resettlement scheme for Afghan refugees - just announced tonight. Is it big enough? It will take a total of 20,000, while SNP say it should take 35-40,000 to match Syria, and David Davis says “north of 50,000”.
5. How will Britain safeguard against the multiple threats of a Taliban-controlled Afghanistan? Mitigate Islamist terrorism if it's given a new safe haven? A fresh wave of immigration from fleeing refugees? A deluge of cheaper heroin? What, if any, leverage does the UK now have?
6. The Biden problem: what is the PM's relationship now with a President who cut him out of the biggest foreign policy decision his premiership will see, and over a joint mission? Can the UK ever rely on the Biden presidency again? How critical will the PM dare to be of Biden?
7. Will the PM now order an inquiry into the UK's mission in Afghanistan? It cost £28 billion and the lives of 457 service personnel. Everyone knows major mistakes were made along the way. Will he protect our future troops by publicly learning those albeit painful lessons?
8. Finally, what more will the PM do now to help the 150,000 or so UK veterans of the Afghan conflict, many of who will struggle to ever come to terms with how the mission ended, having lost friends, limbs or both there? Help For Heroes are already reported an upsurge in demand.
More on Johnson’s huge day on @TimesRadio tomorrow after 8am.
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Raab at FAC: asked why he didn't do more to build a new coalition to replace the US in Afghanistan? A key question. Raab evades saying what personal efforts he made to insist it was never doable anyway. “Nobody was going to backfill the capacity that the US provided”.
Raab goes on to say Afghanistan has effectively been a failed mission for years. "At what point did we last have the military objectives identified and the exit strategy to achieve them?" Once it's realised it's a mission without end, the decision must be to pull out, he argues.
Tugendhat immediately hits back to ask: "What is the US’s exit strategy from South Korea?" Raab appears stumped: “I don’t know that”. But then insists the analogy is false.
Dominic Raab appears before the Foreign Affairs Committee at 2pm tomorrow for a special session. Bitterly criticised for FCDO as well as personal failings, the bottom line is the Afghanistan debacle was on his watch so he will be fighting for his job. Here's what to expect (1)
Many of the questions MPs will put to Raab were put to Boris Johnson when Parliament was recalled, but still remain unanswered. They split into three parts. 1. The Past, and the almost total failure to prepare for the US pull out despite years of warning. Could the UK...(2)
...have stayed on by building a new alliance, and why wasn’t the hasty evacuation better planned? 2. The Present: what can be done now for the legitimate evacuees who didn’t make it out of Kabul? At least 1,000 are eligible under UK schemes but are still there. Many more...(3)
Commons recall debate on Afghanistan: MPs will now sit for an extra 3 hours until 5pm today, as so many want to speak.
PM immediately bombarded with interventions. Asked by Tobias Ellwood whether he will agree to an independent inquiry into UK’s involvement in Afghanistan? Johnson signals no - “many of the questions have already been answered” - to heckles of anger from MPs on both sides.
Johnson says he spoke to UK ambassador in Kabul Laurie Bristow this morning: “The situation has stabilised since the weekend, but remains precarious. At the moment, the Taliban are allowing the evacuation to go ahead”.
Some interesting other measures in the Govt's Step 4 policy document that the PM didn't announce: QR codes will continue in pubs / restaurants, and if you're pinged you will still have to isolate - but premises will no longer be forced to display them, just "encouraged" to.
There is also a big safety net. Rather than irreversible, the roadmap is actually very reversible. Govt quietly reserving the right to impose "economic and social restrictions at a local, regional or national level" if NHS capacity is threatened. Local authority powers also kept.
A further safety net also quietly being kept in reserve: domestic vaccine passports - 'certification' - will be imposed if the NHS comes under heavy pressure in the Autumn / Winter.
No10 press conference, Big Bang reopening at Step 4 confirmed. A summary:
- Almost all legal restrictions will end, and guidance will be moved to advisory
- No limits on social contact, no capacity limits at venues, all remaining businesses can reopen, including nightclubs
- Government's domestic vaccine passports scheme not going ahead
- No legal requirement for covid certification to enter any mass events
- Businesses / venues / grounds can voluntarily adopt a vaccine passport regime, and use the NHS app
- 1 Metre Plus rule scrapped
- All legal regulations to wear face masks scrapped, replaced by general health guidance but not specific about any sectors
- businesses or transport provides can still insist on face masks as a condition of custom
- Limit of 5 named visitors to care homes lifted
Interesting conversations with two different ministers tonight. Both support PM’s caution in unlocking this far, but have serious concerns about how the July 19 delay now plays out. They (individually) make the point that cases + hospitalisations and, to a lesser extent, deaths…
…will rise further now sharply, and still be rising in 4 weeks time, but hopefully with a slower rate of incline once more second doses kick in. But they fear the PM will come under huge pressure from the CMO/CSA, Labour and opinion polls, not to unlock when numbers are still…
…pointing upwards, and hospitalisations are in the high 100s and deaths in high two or three figures daily. They wonder, if Johnson doesn’t unlock then, “when can we ever?” The answer, they say, is he will have to bite the bullet once and for all and declare a number of daily…