Nooresh Merani Profile picture
Feb 5, 2019 3 tweets 4 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
The #divergence of #Smallcaps #Midcaps and Broader Markets with #Nifty50 is now even being seen in #Nifty50 stocks with the Top 10 of #Nifty50. Top 10 of #Nifty50 weight is 60.26% of #Nifty50 and Top 20 is 77.33%.
The top 2 stocks #HDFCBank and #Reliance have a weight of 20% in #Nifty50. The top 5 stocks have a weight of 39.39%. Banking and Financials sector has a weight of almost 38%. The last 27 stocks in #Nifty50 have a weight of less than 1%.
The last time we saw such concentration for Top 10/20 stocks in #Nifty50 was in in June 2009 ( when it changed to free float ) and in June-August 2013. How long can this continue? All I can say is - In a year or two we may think very differently about the next 3 months. Image

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More from @nooreshtech

May 17
#FlashBack Thread.

17th May 2004 - #BlackMonday LowerCircuit Day.

Started learning Technicals from @nsfidai just a week or two before this event.

Remember him and his friend discussing how markets are heading lower irrespective of results.

Let's see what happened.
#IndianElections & the Impact.

#Nifty fell almost 20% in a single day. Closed 12-13 % lower.

Down 32% from April to May. Peak to Bottom.

On Close 24% fall.

#BJP lost elections.

Remember the "India is Shining " Campaign.

Learnt Lower Top Lower Bottom Pattern ImageImage
#Global Impact of Indian Elections.

#US Markets fell by 6-7% in April-May 2004.

Was down 1% on 17th May 2004. Image
Read 11 tweets
May 16
#WisdomTales: Insights from Legends

In this series, we cover interesting stories and insights of legendary investors which will give invaluable lessons in the journey of investing

In this thread, Kenneth Andrade explained how using #TechnoFunda does not work on huge PF size !! Image
According to him both the studies contradicts each other, example, A technical chart will tell you to sell it 20% below your purchase price and as a Fundamental analyst you will double your position at 50% below your purchase price so those things are conflicting
In his career he held “MRF” from 2003 to 2015 it was 110 times up, held “Page industries” from 2007 to 2015 it gave an 80x or 90x, & Kaveri seeds which gave 70x

After this there’s just one question he asks is why would you want to sell a business where fundamentals are improving
Read 7 tweets
May 15
5 Trends - A thread

1) Leadership Changing in Banks,
2) NBFCs breakout,
3) PSE FOMO to set in,
4) New Age Cos Bottomed,
5) Smallcap Oops Moment !!
HDFCBank (28% Wt) - 1750 a major resistance.
KotakBank - (10% Wt) - 2000 resistance.
ICICI Bank strength continues.
SBI crossing 600 confirmation of strength.
AxisBank & Indusind Bank ( 1250 resistance ) can be new leaders.

Be selective. Image

Old thumb rule - NBFCs, Banks can outperform when Rate Cycle has peaked or the rally starts with Big Banks to Small Banks and then Nbfcs

A lot of charts trying to make 2-3 yr highs- Ujjivan, LTFH, M&M Finance, IDFC twins, Equitas, Chola, Federal , Muthoot Cap, etc ImageImage
Read 10 tweets
Apr 20
New iOS in #Markets

Indian #Options Speculators.

There has been a huge surge in #Retail and #Proprietary trading in #Options and more specifically in #Index Options.

The Data & Charts below are just #Crazy and getting crazier.
1) #Retail Participation went through the roof in 2021

Some Moderation now in 2022-2023

#Retail in Cash Market From 3 cr in Jan 20 to 11.7 cr in 2021.
#Retail at 3.2 cr participants March 23.

3x jump in all participation from Jan 20 !! Image
2) Everyone is an #Option Trader

#FIIs are just 9.5% of #IndexOptions Premium Turnover !!! From 21% in Fy20.

45% is #Domestic Prop ( #Broker trading on its own behalf )

35% is #Retail.
Retail + pro = 80%
#Retail is almost 4x of #FIIs.

Btw #FIIs own 20% of India. Image
Read 12 tweets
Apr 17
A thread to understand the #Hotel Industry - from the eyes of Patanjali Keswani of #LemonTreeHotel
Difference between this decade and last decade for hotel industry –

> Supply injections are going to be very very limited compared to previous decade.

> Growth of demand was at 12% and supply growth was at 15%

> Now the supply growth is under 5% and demand is northwards of 10%
Returns in hotel industry -

> Ownership of assets – 8-9% ROCE

> Management of assets – 40% ROCE

> Franchise business – 100% ROCE

Over a period, all the branded business in India is focusing on asset light model other than Chalet hotels
Read 10 tweets
Dec 9, 2022
Small PSU Banks & Yes Bank - Future multibaggers or just a frenzy?

One will think that it is the best time for PSU bank investors given the recent rally in psu banking stocks!!

Is it really the best time? Let’s find out !!

#yesbank #psubanks #multibagger #frenzy
First of all let me get this clear, if you are a new investor in PSU bank stocks who bought it 50-100% lower , then you have clearly made money and kudos to you for that…The question now to ask is whether the rally is sustainable or not
But, over the last 10-12 years the stocks have fallen a lot. From 50-80% even after such a rally.

But the next thought that comes to mind is will they regain their lost glory and go back to prices of 2020/2018/2015/2010.
Read 12 tweets

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